Betting Exchange Arbitrage – Maximise Matched Betting Profits

arbitrage betting, feature imageAdvantage Play

What’s betting exchange arbitrage?

Betting exchange arbitrage is simply doing sports arbitrage between conventional bookmaker and betting exchange rather than only among conventional bookmakers to make risk-free profits. 

Matched Betting & Sports Arbitrage

We beat the bookies by Matched Betting / Sports Arbitrage / Value Bets On Proven Tipsters to lock-in profit or consistently earn extra income based on mathematical edge. And we always think about how our readers can maximize SYNERGY among these advantage gambling. Arbitrage Betting using Betting Exchange is obviously one of the ways to achieve it between matched betting & sports arbitrage. 

Just in case, you are not familiar with these advantage plays, take a look at;

Originally, sports arbitrage betting came from financial trading tactics that take advantage of market inefficiencies namely a price difference between two or more markets without risk. And matched betting uses this arbitrage betting concept to capitalize on the benefits of bonuses & free bets from bookmakers. The rapid increase of matched betting popularity in the UK/Ireland attracted many players in other countries, see 

Although arbitrage betting is still prevailing in the worldwide, among the matched bettors, arbitrage betting is not considered as a daily tool but something to avoid if possible.

Fear of Gubbing (account restriction)

Why is that? Very simple, the gubbing scares the crap out of matched bettors. Because arbitrage betting is somehow believed to be the sure formula to get gubbed quickly. Yes, it is fundamentally true. Soft Bookies set the radar to look for those who constantly take a value and restrict their accounts. However, we feel matched bettors seem to be excessively nervous about taking up arb opportunities. Is arbitrage betting more dangerous than matched betting from gubbing viewpoint?

We conducted small research of which result will be found in the next section.

 

Sports Arbitrage Betting Exchange Process

We quickly draw the possible approach of Sports Arbitrage Betting by using Betting Exchanges, which is a natural extension for the matched bettors but not automatically considered by sports arbitragers. 

Firstly, allow me to discuss a few basics, especially for those who know arbitrage betting but are not familiar with matched betting;

Betting Exchange

If you started sports arbitrage but have not started matched betting, you need to have the betting exchange account such as Betfair. Simply put, we make the best use of Lay Bet in exchange. It is the bet on the “Thing NOT To Happen”. On the other hand, the bet we usually place in the conventional bookmakers is called Back Bet that is “Thing To Happen”.

In the event with multiple outcomes such as football – Win/Lose /Draw, you need to bet both Loose & Draw for “Not Win” in usual bookmakers. However, in exchanges, you can cover “Not Win” with 1 single bet. Namely, you become a bookmaker position when you lay in exchanges.

There are 4 established betting exchanges as below; 

For full details of betting exchanges, the below 2 documents will be of good help; 

Besides, for those who can’t access to the 4 key betting exchanges, don’t worry, you can use bet brokers, but you need to take a cautious approach given their small business operation. The following 2 documents will help you select the right one(s);

Lastly, are you aware of Pinnacle Sports? Pinnacle is probably the most reputable professional friendly sharp sportsbook that officially promotes Arbitrage Betting in their site. Interestingly, Pinnacle can be an alternative of betting exchange, see Pinnacle Arbitrage – Alternative to Laying on Exchanges.  However, Pinnacle doesn’t accept many countries, if you reside in the country Pinnacle is not available, use the above bet brokers that place bets not only Pinnacle but also several other sharp Asian bookies such as SBObets on behalf of you. Just FYI.

 

 How to use Arbitrage in Matched Betting

In the matched betting method, we take the approach to find the narrowest odds gap on the same event & market between the bookmaker & betting exchange. We use the software called Odds Matcher, which list the best opportunities. See the below example showing the William Hill (bookmaker) case;

Sports Arbitrage Exchange William Hill

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The top event shows English League 2 football match of Accrington vs Newport County. The calculator indicates if you bet £100 to back Newport County (means Newport County win) at William Hill and Lay £101.98 Newport County (means Newport County NOT win, namely lose or draw) you will lose £0.06 regardless of the outcome.

Sports Arbitrage Exchange William Hill Calculation

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Yes, it incurs a loss. Bear it in mind, higher lay odds than back odds like the above case creates profit. But we have to take the Betting Exchange Commission (Smarket is 2%) into account, thus it results in marginal loss. In any case, matched betting uses bookmaker’s offer like a free bet. Means the £100 you bet at William Hill is assumed as the free bet, thus you will profit from the free bet value minus loss. Practically, it is not such simple but theoretically, it works like that. The point here is how this process applies to Sports Arbitrage.

 How To Arbitrage Between Bookmaker & Betting Exchange

The Odds Matcher often captures the profit opportunities rather than loss opportunity, such as;

Sports Arbitrage, Exchange William Hill Arb Calculation

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The % in the red box shows 100+ %, means Lay Bet Odds is Better Enough than Back Bet Odds after taking the exchange commission into account. This is the condition of sufficient under-round which creates a profitable arbitrage opportunity. The calculation shows;

Sports Arbitrage, Exchange William Hill Arb

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It says if you place £100 back bet on Reivers Lodge (Horse Racing at Ayr) in William Hill while laying £107.45 on the same horse in Betfair (betting exchange), you will lock-in £5.30 net profit no matter Reivers Lodge wins or loses. This is exactly the sports arbitrage profit.

Means, betting exchange arbitrage can bring benefits to both arbitragers & matched bettors.

 

Arbing Research among Matched Bettors 

However, as said before, matched bettors worry about gubbing that can be caused by arbitrage. We conducted small research among our GEM members over the last 3 months (just after the new football season started). 

Methodology

The research was designed as below;

  • 20 UK/Ireland members including us to monitor their bookie’s account.
  • All of them are regular matched bettors and subscribe paid matched betting service thus can use high-quality software like the one of Oddsmonkey to find arb opportunities.
  • Split the members into 2 groups (10 each) as follows;
  • 1) Do only their usual matched betting,
  • 2) Do arbitrage betting regularly on top of their usual matched betting.
  • For arbitrage betting activities, use Odds Matcher or Dutch Matcher to locate arb opportunities, and asked to take only up to 6% profit opportunities
  • Only we, GEM staffs took risky arbs like over 10%
  • Asked all the members to place mug bets regularly

Brief Findings

  • Arb opportunities Found & Used: 97% from Odds Matcher (means between bookmaker & betting exchange) & 3% from Dutch Matcher (among bookies).
  • Average % of Gubbed Accounts (can’t express in absolute numbers because each member has a different number of accounts): 1) 6.9% 2) 6.2% ===> the % is calculated by # of gubbed account divided by total account # of all members during the research period.
  • Average # of Arbitrage Betting per day: 5.7 with an average stake of £/€47
  • Average Profit from Arbitrage Betting: Around £/€390 per month
  • Average % Arb: 4.9% ===> Calculated from the above 3 numbers as £/€390 / 5.7 x £/€47 x 30 days
  • My StanJames (was bought by Unibet) account seems to be the only case that proves obvious effect from arbitrage betting. I myself took over 15% horse racing arb 3 days consecutively, pls see the details later.
  • An average number of mug bet is unknown due to our fault (we had failed to ask the members to record it), but all of them said they regularly bet on the chosen teams in several football leagues (Premier League, Championship, League 1 & 2, La Liga, Serie A & Bundesliga etc), Rugby Union & League, and the US major 4 sports as well as place constant ACCA.

Wrap Up

Let me emphasize that, from a pure research perspective, these numbers are far from reliable. Because it is based on the limited sample # & different bases such as # of bookmakers, age of each bookmaker account, bankroll amount & frequency of arbitrage & matched betting among each member. Therefore, we are not in the position to assure any safety or the actions you will find in this document.

Nevertheless, it still displays an interesting indication & useful insight into the myth that arbitrage betting is evil. On the contrary, proper regular practice of arbitrage betting may make a role of mug betting, which we could possibly read & speculated from the lower gubbed account % of the group that did arbing. But, remember the bookies can identify the event of which odds exceeds Betfair odds (arbitrage condition). So the consequence of only taking such bets will be obvious & imminent. Proper mug betting is essential.

The key fact is that people earned average additional earnings of £/€390 per month from regular arbitrage betting. BTW, according to RebelBetting, the world No.1 arbitrage software, projected arbitrage profit per month is €1,500. If you’re interested in it, take a look at our RebelBetting Review.

 

Precautionary Tactics

As kept saying, bookies are very keen to find price takers and will impose a restriction on the account that keeps taking high values. This is what matched bettors fear and consider arbitrage betting is a real evil, which our research shows Not Necessarily.

However, the fact still remains that bookies will limit your account of whoever keeps taking value. Allow me to remind you that it’s a well-known fact that bookies traders use software to detect the bets of which odds are higher than exchange especially Betfair. Means if you are the one who places only such bets, it’s really the matter of time to get limited. So it’s paramount importance to keep taking precautionary actions.

If you use high-quality Oddsmatcher like Oddsmonkey always capture arbing opportunities as shown in the screenshot. However, as said repeatedly, any opportunities with over 10% profit (in the oddsmatcher, the rating % of 110% <) could be a palpable error. The bookies may cancel the bet. If you lay the long odds and the back wins, your loss will become huge.

Sports Arbitrage, Exchange Oddsmatcher Opportunities

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Let’s quickly review the opportunities In the table;

Nasty Bookie

  • The top rating event is StanJames horse racing of 15.22% profit. StanJames may not cancel the bet but if you take this sort of value a few times, they will immediately restrict your account. I’m a living example of this research. I took around 15% arb 3 days consecutively, then on the following day I receive the below e-mail. It suddenly happened after 2-years calm happy matched betting life in this account. Don’t take too much value in racing specifically from those bookies listed in 30 World Betting Site. It was not only gubbing/restriction but jumped into Closing;
    Sports Arbitrage, StanJames Restriction Mail

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Same Odds Among Multiple Bookies

  • 2nd rating event is 15.2% profit of PSG vs Celtic Champions League found in 4 bookmakers including Ladbrokes. Generally speaking, when multiple bookies show the same odds, it may not be an error. But, there are many a.k.a. clone sites or the syndicates where the same source of odds service are used.
  • Therefore, the same odds among multiple bookmakers only doesn’t prove “Not a Palp”. Then let’s compare with more bookies by checking the oddscheker. It shows Ladbrokes’ outstanding odds. They may not cancel but obviously the one you’d better stay away, because in case they cancel your loss could be huge given such long odds. Even not cancel, Lad may put your account into watch list;
    Sports Arbitrage, Exchange Ladbrokes Oddschecker

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  • Bottom-line, from all angles, it’s better to avoid any opportunities with over 10% profit. Don’t try to be greedy. If you take only up to 8% as shown by the blue arrow in the table, you may be safe although there is no guarantee.

I can’t emphasize more that our research can’t ensure anything. If you decide to take this approach, place mug bet as many as possible. Always try to get into the minds of casual (mug) punters and act as you can imagine. For example, as our sample members (in fact, all of them) do, chose 1 – 2 team (s) in each major football league, say Chelsea, and bet on Chelsea whenever they play. You do it across several sports category. Isn’t it a sort of betting pattern that recreational punters do? No guarantee, but acting like that regularly may disguise your true professional colour, thus could prolong your account life, which is your matched betting lifeblood.

We have actually prepared the following 2 guides;

When it comes to mug bet, see the Very Specific & Comprehensive Mug Betting Instruction in the “Essential Guide To Avoid Gubbing & Keep Beating The Bookies”.

 

Betting Exchange Arbitrage Software  

Betting Exchange Arbing Earning Projection

As said, high quality oddsmatcher constantly capture arb opportunities. Considering our research results, the followings are possible earning scenario;

  • Bet stake of £/€40 – 60 with an average 5% arb profit x 5 – 10 bets/day
  • Monthly Profit would be the range of £/€300 – 900
  • If you cover many bookies say over 30, you may be able to arb efficiently. Besides, you may not have to keep arbing in the same bookie which could trigger bookie’s unnecessary attention.

Sports Arbitrage Betting Exchange Software

Given the nature of arbitrage betting, the opportunity disappears extremely quickly. Therefore very high-quality odds matcher is required as the standard arbing (such as the one of RebelBetting – see our full review if you’re interested).

The free oddsmatcher like I use as an example in the various matched betting instructions can’t cope with it because their data is around 20 minutes late. It’s impossible to capture the arb opportunity that change in minutes or even seconds.  The below 3 are the current best choices (one of the benefits to using them is 0% Betting Exchange Commission thanks to their partnership with SMarkets, Matchbook & Betdaq. Only with this, you can cover years of their subscription fee.);

However, these focus on UK/Ireland, therefore for the players outside these countries use the software we mentioned before.

 

Betting Exchange Arbitrage – Conclusion

Matched Betting & Sports Arbitrage Next Stage

Besides, these methods are all about scalping small margins. Therefore, people often feel frustrated with limited profit amount in each bet comes from the risk-hedging nature.
Thus, evolving into Value Betting WITHOUT RISK-HEDGE which is more size with better efficiency for long-term is a natural move as an ultimate betting activity.

If you may consider moving up to the next sports trading level while exploiting the bookies via matched betting & sports betting, the followings are proven methods which can be used by basically anyone in the world;

 

If you have any inquiry or need any help from us, please contact us anytime.

Good Luck!!

Joshua Walker (bio

Editor – Global Extra Money (GEM)