Value Bets Experts
Estimated Reading Time: 20 minutes
The “Show” box underneath displays Full Contents & Jump Links for your convenience.
- 1. Value Betting on Proven Software / Systems / Tipsters – Take Your Matched Betting / Arbing to the Next Level
- 2. Value Bet Overview
- 3. How to Find the Best Value Bet Experts
- 4. Value Bets – Specific Proven Experts
- 5. Sharp Punters Precautionary Actions
- 6. Solution For Country Restriction
Value Betting on Proven Software / Systems / Tipsters – Take Your Matched Betting / Arbing to the Next Level
Advantage Play Progression Strategy
We have 3 sports advantage plays. Among them, we suggest people take evolving move as a logical and the safest approach for newbies. namely;
- Starting from Matched Betting (see Dummies Guide) / Sports Arbitrage ( high sure bet – see Cheat-sheet for Dummies). Because these are basically risk-free and you can lock-in profit from almost every bet. Means you can start safely, which will help change your mindset toward betting activities/gambling.
- Comparing between matched betting & sports arbitrage, many people feel more comfortable to start matched betting first because you can do it easier with smaller bank.
- However, these 2 methods could be more short-lived down the road due to the ever-tightening soft bookies’ account restriction. See the rationale in Know Bookies’ Business Model. Besides, these methods are all about scalping small margins. Therefore, people often feel frustrated with limited profit amount in each bet comes from the risk-hedging nature.
- Thus, evolving into Value Betting WITHOUT RISK-HEDGE which is more size with better efficiency for long-term is a natural move as an ultimate betting activity.
Value Bet Overview
How Value Bet Works
Firstly, let’s start up with overall picture of Value Betting. Value bets can be identified by Software or System or Human Being (Tipster / handicapper). It may be better to express Value Betting WITHOUT Hedge as opposed to Matched Betting & Sports Arbitrage with No Risk that can be expressed as Value Bet WITH Hedging.
- Value Betting – Sports Betting is all about probability. The Sharp (Punters) focus on finding value. Value bet is a bet of which odds reflects a higher probability than the real probability of particular event occurrence. We can gauge it in EV (Expected Value) as the below formula. As long as you keep placing the bet with Positive EV, you will surely make solid earnings in Medium to Long Term.
- Bookie’s Profit (Margin) – Bookmakers employ specialists in statistics & mathematics as well as sports analysts to set odds with Over-round that is their built-in margin to ensure positive EV. Thus ordinary punter can’t beat bookmakers.
- Opportunity – Unlike Casino or Bingo, the probability is not fixed or the real true odds don’t exist. The probability you get “1" in dice rolling is always 1/6th. However, there is no true % Barcelona beat Real Madrid in the next match. Besides, bookies provide thousands of odds in many sports every day and practically it’s impossible for them to set positive EV for every odd. Finally, their constant effort to Balance The Book fluctuates the odds. Therefore, there are many odds with negative EV for bookies but majority of the punters can’t identify them accurately.
Number Speaks Volume
- Best Proven Tipsters – It’s clear that Sports Betting is largely Skill Oriented rather than pure probability like the dice. If we talk about human being, a handful of real experts i.e. top tipsters / handicapper who have expertise & tools (sophisticated unique software & huge data base) constantly find such odds and provide you with impressive solid profit as below table produced by a reliable proofing service;
Are Such Returns Sustainable & Authentic?
Sports Betting is a Zero-Sum Game. Means unlike Stock Trading where all can be winners (in bull market) or all can be losers (in bear market), there are always equal winners & losers at the same time. Bookmakers are your enemy and many of them are profitable by beating 95% of the punters who are called casual, recreational or mug punters.
However, if you keep betting only on value (Positive EV), you will surely beat the bookies for medium-long term because you are taking over the bookies’ edge. For this particular point, you will find details in Beat The Bookies By Knowing How Your Enemy Makes Money.
The conclusion is once you decide to pursue this category, you have to be patient and keep betting as many as possible. The more you do the better chance you get more profit – you are protected by Math Logic based on Probability Theory.
The Hardest Part
Like the financial trading, it takes years & huge learning costs to get such edge to beat the bookies. The best & logical way is to find the top notch Experts, either Human a.k.a Tipster (Handicapper) or Machine (Software) or System to help you.
However, as you imagine, the hardest part is to locate such best experts. When it comes to the reality of authenticity of the tipsters for example, unfortunately, 99% of the self-claim proven tipsters manipulated their past performance to inspire you (or simply scam). It’s very important for you to select the experts of which tips are verified by the credible 3rd party.
How to Find the Best Value Bet Experts
So, let me share the ways to chose the best value bet experts by using tipster case.
Fake Tipsters Quick Elimination
There are hundreds of Self-Claim Excellent Tipsters or Tipster Ranking Sites that rating based on ROI. However, it’s said that majority of such top tipsters give you disappointing results. Why? A few simple reasons, they cheat the records or manipulate the record, or we don’t know how to correctly read / interpret the records.
The bottom-line is that many people fail to identify the true ability of each tipster. We summarized 3 Methods To Eliminate Fake Tipsters & Select Genuine Best, where you will find;
- Betting Tipster Survivorship Bias
- 2 Basic Misleading Elements – Length of Records & Long or Short Odds
- 2 Ways To Check Credibility – Closing Price & Randomness
It will help you quickly eliminate the obvious fakes.
Tipster Due Diligence
Then, if you would like to make your further DD (Due Diligence, the below explains the basic criteria;
- Company Background & Snapshot
- Programme Service Details
- Tipster Biography
- Strategies & Risk Management
Quantitative Dimension – Past Facts
- Performance Summary (Tipping Records)
- Profit Result (ROI & Bank Growth)
- Negative Checks (Drawdown)
- Proofing Records (Independent Verification)
For your better understanding, let me show you a bit more specific information you need to check in the Quantitative Dimension (you may also send the below questions to the tipster);
Performance Summary & Profit Result (Bank Growth)
Assess ROI and Betting Bank Size Evolution
These parameters can be viewed as the most comprehensive indicator to see how worth the tipping system is. This should be calculated using how many bets have to be placed and how much money has to be staked in order to achieve the profits and how long such profit growth will take. The basic indicators are:
- A: # of Tips – cumulative numbers you signalled
- B: Win Rate – % of winning tips vs A) total number of tips
- C: Average Odds of picks – sum of the odds produced / A)
– Initial Bankroll (starting Capital): $10,000
– Average stake amount / bet: $200 (2% out of total bankroll)
Then the subscriber’s profit can be calculated as:
- D: Winning Stake Amount = A x B x C x $200
- E: Loosing Stake Amount = A x (1-B) x $200
- F: Your Gross Service Charge = Monthly Service Fee x # of months
- G: Net Profit / (Loss) = D – E – F
- H: ROI (Return On Investment, means Yield / bet) = F / (A x $200) x 100
- I: Betting Bank Closing Balance = $10,000 + 4) after — months
- A. Cumulative number of tips produced: 700 tips for 12 months
- B. Cumulative Win Rate: 50%
- C. Average Odds of 700 picks: 1.91 (or 10/11 or -110)
- D. Winning Amount = 700 x 55% x (1.91 – 1) x $200 = $70,070
- E. Loosing Stake = 700 x 45% x $200 = $63,000
- F. Gross Service Charge = $100 x 12 = $1,200
- G. Net Profit = $70,070 – $63,000 – $1200 = $$5,870
- H. ROI = $5,870 / ($200 x 700) x 100 = 4.2%
- I. Final Bank Balance = $10,000 + $5,870 = $15,870
- J. Bank Growth Rate = $15,870 / $10,000 = 58.87%
- So, this case demonstrates the service brought about 4.2% ROI (Yield per bet) with the 58.87% growth of your bank
Negative Checks (Drawdown)
Obtain The Information Of:
- Maximum draw down (%) month
- Longest consecutive draw down months
Proofing Records – Independent Verification
Get the information how the tips are proven, I mean the basic methods such as when exactly do the tipster issue the pick before the event? Where & who certificate your pick?
Remember, the last criterion of Proofing Records which is whether the tips are proven by Independent Verification system is critically important. Thus, I name this method as Value Bet By Proven Tipsters.
Value Bets – Specific Proven Experts
After years of trial & error, we have identified the below 4 sites as the Best Proofing & Rating Tipsters Service, the proven established betting system & the best Value Bet Finder (Software);
1. Proven Tipster: SBC – Smart Betting Club (Primary for UK / European Players)
Visit SBC Site
This is probably the most established & reputable tipster Proofing & Ranking service in the industry.
Our Full Review
Their key scope are Horse Racing & Football in the UK / Europe. 80.3% of SBC members made profit while 19.7% incurred loss after all the expenses such as subscription fee. It’s very impressive result considering the fact that well over 90% of punters lose money.
Visit Our Full Review Of Secret Betting Club
This comprehensive review enables you to understand how important the genuine tipster proofing & rating service is & what value it provides.
For the punters outside UK, this guide will be useful of exploring the potential of Smart Betting Club.
You may also want to take a look at Case Study of SBC’s ‘Hall Of Fame’ Tipster.
2. Proven System: ZCode System (Worldwide)
Visit Z-Code Site
This is 1 of the most successful Unique Betting System supported by Both Human and Computer Generated tips with huge data base accumulated since 1989. It produced excellent returns proven real time in its private forum by thousands of members.
Our Full Review
Their key scope used to be US 4 Major Sports e.g. MLB / NHL / NFL / NBA, Major European Football Leagues & Horse Racings. However, after corona virus lockdown, they expanded the sports coverage into eSports, minor football leagues & even table tennis, means they now have quite extensive sports coverage in worldwide.
Visit Full Review ZCode Full Review – Inside Analysis / Founder Interview / Secret Of Winners Worldwide
Suggest you check the formula for everybody to earn $1,500 extra money every month.
Besides strongly suggest you click Z Code Discount Link and see If you’re lucky enough to find 75% Permanent Discount activated at the time you click. If not, you need to come back regularly until it’s activated.
3. Proven Software: Trademate Sports (Worldwide)
Visit Trademate Sports SiteTrademate is a Value Bet Finder (Software), founded in Norway in 2014. Many of our members reported “Consistent Earnings Without Any Single Losing Month". We examined Trademate Core by ourselves and we now feel it’s a Genuine Long-Term Solution especially for Matched Bettors who are fed up with Gubbing.
Our Full Review
For our full review, go to Value Betting Finder – Ultimate List
4. Proven Software: RebelBetting Value Betting (Worldwide)
Visit RebelBetting Value Betting SiteRebelBetting is famous for the Best Sports Arbitrage Software (see our RebelBetting Arbitrage Full Review ) and they extended its service to value betting software. Needless to say, their proven technology has been well integrated into this Value Betting Software.
What’s the biggest advantage over the Trademate Sports? Cheaper monthly subscription fee and an AutoSurf technology that automatically logs you in to your bookmaker account, finds the correct match and highlights the odds, very efficient & risk avoiding system (for making careless human error). Trademate Sports also provide you with this system though, it doesn’t apply to all the bookies but only the ones indication “Betslip", which is around half of the covered bookies.
Our Full Review
For our full review, go Double Your Capital Within 3 Months.
Sharp Punters Precautionary Actions
As said, sports betting is the battle between bookmakers and punters. Therefore generally speaking bookies hate constant winners who will damage their bottom-line. They limit account of the sharp punters to prevent you from continuous winnings.
However, there are excellent bookmakers that Welcome Professional due to the different business model they employ. They are called Sharp Bookies. So it’s essential for you to see the below list and open the accounts of such bookies represented by Pinnacle & Bookmaker EU (see 11 Offers Sportsbooks which also covers the latest promotion offers)
I also provide the infamous bookies that quickly limit your account, called Soft Bookies. But it doesn’t mean they are bad bookies. In fact, they are top class bookmakers. The only problem is the account restriction. These bookies are usually very slow at adjusting odds, means the top rated tipsters will easily find many value bets. Therefore, the best approach is that you exploit those weakness and earn as much as possible until you’re restricted. Don’t worry, they just limit your account or close your account. They can’t confiscate your money and you can withdraw your winnings without any problems.
So, find the 2 bookmakers list as below (we use the term bookies & betting sites though all what we list provide Casino Service as well) that are important for advantage players, so whenever you have time, go through;
On top of sharp bookmakers, you should use betting exchanges that never restrict your account. There are 4 established betting exchanges as below;
And, in case you are not familiar with the betting exchanges, the below 2 documents will be of good help;
The above 4 betting exchange latest sign-up offers includes Betfair £100 Free Bet, which is supposed to be one of the best offers in the industry, just FYI.
How To Avoid Account Restriction
When it comes to the account restriction, for the value betting by tipsters, you don’t need many bookmakers unlike Arbitrage Betting or Matched Betting. So ultimately you can concentrate on only the bookies that does not care winners, after you’re banned from all the other nervous bookies.
However yet it’s wise to take certain actions to prolong your account to maximize your earnings. Therefore, access to the below 2 information and take proper actions continuously – One is Before Restriction, The Other One is After Restriction;
Solution For Country Restriction
As our name Global Extra Money implies, we would like many people from all over the world to enjoy our methods as much as possible. Therefore, we have issued :
In Short, except 8 Countries (Cyprus, Poland, North Korea, United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Brunei, Cambodia) where on-line gamble is legally prohibited, all of you can make profit from matched betting, see the above report for full details.
Allow me to stress that Pinnacle is a MUST bookmaker because they openly declare Welcome Winners together with betting exchanges. However they don’t allow many countries (for Pinnacle see our full review that includes list of restricted countries).
If your country is not allowed, don’t worry, you can use bet brokers, but you need to take a cautious approach given their small business operation. The following 2 documents will help you select the right one(s);
Hope this guide will pave the way to your new extra income journey.
Joshua Walker (bio)