RebelBetting Value Betting – Method To Double Your Capital Within 3 Months
Estimated Reading Time: 19 minutes
On top of RebelBetting Value Betting Review, We Provide You with Comprehensive Guide to Successful Process Which is Different from Arbitrage Betting.
- 1. Value Betting & RebelBetting Basics
- 2. RebelBetting Value Betting Review – Key Features
- 3. RebelBetting Value Betting – How Much Profits You Can Make
- 4. RebelBetting Value Betting – Workable Countries
- 5. Proven Model To Double Your Fund in 3 Months
- 6. Value Betting Special Offer
Value Betting & RebelBetting Basics
Just in case, you are not familiar with Value Betting & RebelBetting itself, take a look at;
What’s Value Betting?
I described Value Betting as;
“The House Always Wins” is the standard saying in the gambling industry. It’s simply based on the fact that the bookmakers / casinos set marginal edge over the players. Means what the bookies pay out to customers is always smaller than the actual chance of the event happening. As a result they will make guaranteed money in long term even they lose in occasional huge jackpot. Why? Because they own a mathematical edge, called House Edge in Casino & Over-round in Sports Betting. Value Betting, on the contrary, is the player’s ability to identify such mathematical edge against a bookmaker or another user on the exchange. Simply put, in Sports Betting, when the selection’s probability of happening is less than it should be, namely Under-round condition, then it offers value. For full detail about this subject, go Beat Bookmakers Nicely By Knowing How They Make Money; So, we can define Value Bet as the bet priced for less than it’s worth, and it is the fundamental of profit that nobody can beat, that’s why it’s very important for the punters to locate Value Bet. In summary, the advantage play we use is all about taking bookie’s edge away from them and give ourselves the edge by identifying value bet. We gauge the edge in the form of EV (Expected Value) for every opportunity, which is calculated as;
EV = (Winning Amount / Bet x Winning Probability) – (Losing Amount / Bet x Losing Probability)
EV = (£100 x 1.0 x 50%) – (£100 x 1.0 x 50%) = £0
But assuming you get 2.1 odds and bet £100 on it, then;
EV = (£100 x 1.1 x 50%) – (£100 x 1.0 x 50%) = £5
The result indicates that you will make an average profit of £5 for every £100 bet. Because in this case, the implied probability of 47.6% (1/2.1) is lower than the true probability of 50%, means Under-round, thus you will constantly win in long-term, which is Value Bet. As long as we find Positive EV that gives us Long-Term Value, we think it worth pursuing.Value Bets Finder – RebelBetting Value Betting & Trademate Sports
In short, with Value Betting, you will have an edge over bookmakers because you place bets that have a larger chance of winning than the bookmakers’ implied odds (in other words taking advantage of overpriced odds), which can be mathematically calculated and expressed in EV. So, if you place only value betting, you will be profitable as the bookmakers are profitable in long-term.
I introduced RebelBetting as;
RebelBetting provides you with a software for Sports Arbitrage Betting. This software is based on the algorithms that identifies differently priced online bookmaker odds for the same sporting event. Wagering on a pair can, in theory, lead to small but risk-free wins. The practice is akin to arbitrage in financial markets – taking a profit by simultaneously buying and selling the same security at different prices – but at the expense of bookies.
RebelBetting was built by Clarobet AB, a small team of software developers and sports betting specialists in Umea, the north of Sweden. It started in 2006 when two programmers and two poker players developed the application. In 2009 they had users from 62 countries and were nominated to the Young Entrepreneur award. It operates very efficiently and had earnings before interest & tax of Skr3.6m ($523,000) on revenues of SKr6.7m in 2013. Now, they help over 100,000 users from 120+ countries make money from sports betting under the current CEO Björn Leyonberg.RebelBetting Review - Truth About World Best Sports Arbitrage Software
RebelBetting Value Betting Review – Key Features
Brief summary of advantages & shortfalls;
Value Betting Software Two Forms
Value betting software will scan bookies & betting exchanges to search bets where the probability of a given outcome is greater than the bookmaker’s implied odds.
- 2 Types of Software: Value Betting software comes in two forms of the downloadable software called Windows Version and the Web Version (don’t get confused, this is not RebelBetting App)
- Windows Version is an original version
- Web Version was newly added and works on mobile, tablet and desktop computer, bet on the go, and no installation needed
- You cannot be logged in to two products with the same user (even if one is web and one is windows)
- Both versions have their own unique features as below (now Bet Tracker is available for Software as well);
- Auto-Surf: Same as RebelBetting Surebet software, which is one of the best RebelBetting software benefits. It automatically logs into bookies, takes directly to betslips and fills them out for you. Consequently, the only thing you have to do is checking your stake/odds before placing your bets, means value bet calculator does all necessary calculation for you.
- The web version of ValueBetting sometimes take you directly to the bet slip, but sometimes you will have to navigate and find the match yourself.
- Watch the below videos how each version works;
RebelBetting price. The software is expensive (although Value Betting software is cheaper than Arbitrage software and also chepaer than key competition like Trademate). A monthly subscription for Value Betting is €69 for monthly and you save 25% with 6 month subscription as below;
Therefore, you need to assess if you can make enough profits after paying the subscription fee – see the next section to examine.
RebelBetting Value Betting – How Much Profits You Can Make
“Is Value Betting Profitable?” is one of the most popular questions;
Variance & LLN – Difference from Arbitrage Betting
Many of you already knew RebelBetting as the world best Arbitrage Betting (Sure Betting) software provider. Then, firstly you may want to know Arbitrage vs Value Betting. Arbitrage betting is theoretically guaranteed profit with no risk for EVERY BET, that’s why it is called Sure Bet, but value betting is not.
Let me remind you of the coin toss example I used to explain EV (Expected Value) in the 1st section. If the odds is 2.1 rather than 2.0 of the true odds (based on 50%:50% head or tail probability), means overpriced. Then when you bet £100;
Your EV = (Winning Amount / Bet x Winning Probability) – (Losing Amount / Bet x Losing Probability) = (£100 x 1.1 x 50%) – (£100 x 1.0 x 50%) = £5
So, you earn average £5 when you bet £100 for long-term. The long-term means more number of bets where LLN (Law of Large Numbers) applies. Variance will have more impact on your results when you have a small sample size of bets. The below image depicts how it works. Your value betting value (profits) will not be a straight line as EV but be affected by variance betting (both losing streaks & winning streaks).
With a large number of value bets, your results will always move towards it’s expected value over time. If you do coin toss £100 x 1,000 at 2.1 odds, then your profit will be almost equal to £500. It’s all about betting volume. You need to place as many bets as your time and bankroll allow.
Double Your Bankroll in 3 Months
According to RebelBetting;
If you place 30 bets per day (which is our community average), it will on average take you 3 months to double your bankroll. On average, our users triple their bankroll after 6000 placed value bets.
This is a kind of bench mark when it comes to the possible profits from RebelBetting Value Betting software.
Value Bet Calculator
To simulate your prediction, go to the calculator;
RebelBetting Value Betting – Workable Countries
See how RebelBetting software can be workable in your region / jurisdiction as below;
Firstly, RebelBetting themselves don’t restrict any countries, therefore wherever you reside you can subscribe RebelBetting value betting software.
What affects you are the availability of the RebelBetting supporting bookmakers / betting exchanges & the average yield generated by each bookie in your country.
RebelBetting Supporting Bookies
RebelBetting value betting software covers around 90 bookies & betting exchanges as below;
Soft Bookies & Sharp Bookies
As I explained in Offshore Betting Guide, broadly speaking, there are 2 types of bookies of Soft & Sharp bookies, for details, take a look at Beat The Bookies By Knowing How Your Enemy Makes Money – Secret Of Odds. But very quickly, we can characterize each bookie as;
- Soft bookies: Targeting Casual Punters – Run a lot of promotion / Odds adjustment is relatively slow / Impose account restriction (gubbing)
- Sharp bookies: Targeting Professional Punters – Highly competitive odds / High staking limit / Quick Odds adjustment / Never impose account restriction
Why does it matter? RebelBetting explains;
Value betting on sharp bookmakers is more difficult than using soft bookmakers. If you’re a beginner, you might consider betting on soft bookmakers to begin with. The reason is that a sharp bookmaker generally have odds that are closer to the true probability, compared to a soft bookmaker. The upside is: there still exist a lot of value on sharps, and you can bet large amounts.
However, remember Soft Bookies will limit your account when you take too much values while Sharp Bookies never restrict your account. Means you use Soft Bookies to maximize your profits in short-term while you expect long-term sustainable profits (although profitability could be lower) from Sharp Bookies.
Bookies with Good Average Yield
Rebelbetting just summarized the Top 5 Best Average Yield bookmakers as follows (all are soft bookies);
So, if you can access to these bookies, your profits will obviously be better. Anyhow, Rebelbetting list the following bookies as recommended;
Bet Broker Utilization
Even you have fewer available bookies & exchanges, you can use Bet Brokers to increase. For example, Sportmarket covers the following (you need to take Sportmarket Pro that includes 4 betting exchanges with blue arrows);
Before signing up any bet brokers, suggest you go through Honest Opinion About Bet Broker & How To Use Them Safely & Smartly, since there are many rogue bet brokers online and should clearly understand how it works.
Bookmakers Minimum Requirement
When value betting you don’t have to register with a huge number of bookmakers to profit. You can start with just a few, or even just one. We recommend to start with at least three. But of course more bookmakers means more opportunities and higher profits.
As long as I see the covered bookies, even the USA as one of the most restricted online gambling countries can access to at least 4 bookies of 5Dimes (actually 5Dime produces a lot of value bets), Betonline, Bookmaker EU & Intertops, therefore except the 8 countries where online betting is illegal, wherever you reside, you are most likely to enjoy this opportunity. (BTW, for those offshore bookies, check World 9 Best Offshore Betting Sites Offers where you can earn well over $4,000 welcome bonuses as well as unlimited reload bonuses.)
In fact, in response to my question of “Regarding your Double Your Money in 3 month, how many bookies are based for this model?”, RebelBetting answered;
This is not based on the number of bookmakers, only number of placed bets. So it’s more a question of which bookies you use. Also this is just average numbers. But we usually say that if you place 30 bets per day then this is achievable. That’s what the data tells us! And we trust the math.
For further details, see the next section of “Proven Model To Double Your Fund in 3 Months”.
Proven Model To Double Your Fund in 3 Months
We draw up a model as below;
The below is the study done by Lars Cardon, one of the founders of RebelBetting. He started with a bankroll of $1000 and placed about 4500 bets. His average daily turnover since start is about $600 and 60 bets, means he reached $1,500 profits in 75 days as shown in the below chart. The time period he achieved $1,000 is the circled area that looks 70% of the 75 days. So, he made double the fund in around 50 days.
Honestly 60 bets every day seems bit hard, but with 30-40 bets / day Lars could double the fund within 3 months, which proves RebelBetting previous comment of “if you place 30 bets per day then this is achievable. That’s what the data tells us! And we trust the math“.
Lars’s parameter settings are;
- Initial Bankroll: $1,000
- Odds: 1.5 – 2.75
- Value: 1.5 – 8%
- Hide starting after: 0.5 days (12 hrs)
- Max stake (the maximum percentage of your bankroll you are happy to use for one bet): 2%
- Stake Sizing (Kelly Criterion – the optimal stake for maximum growth of your bankroll, proportional to the perceived value of the bet): 30%
A few Lars’ comments;
I started during the beta with Kelly 100% and bet all odds ranges. I was quickly down 20%. Got back up and followed the EV line but then dropped 37.5% to all time low. Realised that Kelly 100% causes huge swings. After that I’ve changed my settings to pretty much what I have now. I have my funds spread on 12 bookies where most is allocated and turned over at 4-5 of them.
Bet on Limited Bookies
I bet on basically everything that shows up with my filters. It’s all about as much turnover as possible to get profit over time. But also placing many bets to even out the graph. With that in mind I’m happy to place bets even at bookmakers where I’m limited to $3-$4 (if it’s a bookmaker that goes reasonable fast to place the bets). Bigger games on those bookmakers will occasionally let me place larger bets, but I’m happy with smaller as well.
Daily Betting Goal
If I turn over $1000 a day I’m happy. $1000 is my goal on weekends, it’s tougher on a Monday. My average daily turnover since start is about $600 and 60 bets. Biggest turnover I’ve made on one day is $1738, this with a bankroll of about 1100 at that time. How is this possible? It was a Saturday with lots of matches and bets placed in the morning were graded and returned so I could bet the same funds over and over again.
I have daily ups and downs of $100-$200. The downs doesn’t bother me now when the long term graph is steadily upwards. But I can imagine the frustration if one starts with a big down period.
Yield per sport (the highest on top)
- American Football
Note: American Football and Baseball has about 100 bets or less each. Tennis has about 750. So there is lots of bets needed on each sport to make the stats more reliable.
How To Set
Needless to say, you don’t need to follow Lars’s setting but you may use it as a benchmark. How to set these parameters is very simple (the below shows Windows version and Web version works more or less the same way), the below shows the setting process of Lars’ parameter;
Just fill $1,000 at the top;
For all other setting, go “Options”
Review, Analyze & Adjust
Don’t forget to log your all bets which will record all the bets you have placed. Then, to see your betting achievement, click BetTracker icon as below;
In Bettracker, you can analyze the Report for your betting progress by the parameter you set including Sports Category / Market / Bookmaker etc as below;
So, you can adjust the parameters if you locate any poor performance. For example, you may exclude Over/Under market that shows negative profits in the above analysis for some time and see how it goes.
How To Start
See if you find any special offer in the next section.
Value Betting Special Offer
Check if you can get any special offer now;
The below shows the current RebelBetting Value Betting Special Offer;
If you are navigated yo the page like below;
Then, unfortunately it already finished & deactivated.
Editor – GEM (Global Extra Money)