- What’s Value Betting?
- What’s Value Betting Finder / Software?
- How Many Stakes Do You Need To Bet & How Much Money Can You Make?
- Value Betting – Issue & Solutions
- List Of Best Value Betting Software
- Alternatives To Value Betting Software
- Value Betting Software - Conclusion
What’s Value Betting?
Value Betting means placing bets that have a better chance of winning than implied odds set by bookmakers, which is the essence of consistent winning for the long term.
“The House Always Wins” is the standard saying in the gambling industry. It’s simply based on the fact that the bookmakers/casinos set a marginal edge over the players. Means what the bookie’s payout to customers is always smaller than the actual chance of the event happening.
As a result, they will make guaranteed money in the long term even they lose in an occasional huge jackpot. Why? Because they own a mathematical edge, called House Edge in Casino & Over-round in Sports Betting.
Value Betting, on the contrary, is the player’s ability to identify such mathematical edge against a bookmaker or another user on the exchange.
Simply put, in Sports Betting, when the selection’s probability of happening is less than it should be, namely Under-round condition, then it offers value. For full detail about this subject, go Beat the Bookmakers By Knowing How They Make Money.
So, we can define Value Bet as the bet priced for less than it’s worth, and it is the fundamental of profit that nobody can beat. That’s why it’s very important for the punters to locate Value Bet.
In summary, the advantage play we use is all about taking bookie’s edge away from them and give ourselves the edge by identifying the value bet.
How To Calculate Expected Value (EV) For Sports Betting
We gauge the edge of sports betting in the form of EV (Expected Value) for every opportunity, which is calculated as;
EV = (Winning Amount x Winning Probability) – (Losing Amount x Losing Probability)
Winning or Losing Amount = (Stake x Decimal Odds) – Stake
Winning or Losing Probability = (1 / Decimal Odds) x 100%
Let’s use a popular & simple coin toss example. The true decimal odds of the coin toss should be 2.0 because the probability of head or tail is 50%. Then;
EV = (£100 x 1.0 x 50%) – (£100 x 1.0 x 50%) = £0
But assuming you get 2.1 odds and bet £100 on it, then;
EV = (£100 x 1.1 x 50%) – (£100 x 1.0 x 50%) = £5
The result indicates that you will make an average profit of £5 for every £100 bet. Because in this case, the implied probability of 47.6% (1/2.1) is lower than the true probability of 50%, means Under-round, thus you will constantly win in long-term, which is a Value Bet.
As long as we find Positive EV that gives us Long-Term Value, we think it worth pursuing.
What’s Value Betting Finder / Software?
No Value Betting Without Excellent Value Bet Finder.
How To Find Value Bets & What Is Value Betting Software?
A Value Betting Finder is a software which is designed to automatically locate sports events where bookies provide inaccurate prices in the bettor’s favour, namely Overvalued Odds that is Value Bet.
Each Value bet software has its own algorithm to locate the value bet though, one of the standard ways is to look at the odds on betting exchanges.
In the above coin toss example, head or tail is 50:50 that is 100% Sure True Probability. However, who can predict 100% in Sports Betting? Bookies are good at doing it with a good database or employing the 3rd party specialists.
But their Implied Probabilities are not necessarily close to the true probability. Actually, they are often remote, because they need to inject the margin (over-round) & balance the book.
On the other hand, the odds in betting exchanges are based on the mass collective wisdom including sharp punters’ bets and they react faster than soft bookies to new information such as starting lineup (imagine if a key player is absent due to sudden accident, the true odds will be changed immediately).
It is a way to spot value odds before the bookies adjust.
Value bet software uses betting exchange data to identify when there is a weakness in the bookmakers’ odds. It identifies areas where the bookmakers’ odds don’t tally with the exchanges and highlights these to the bettor.
Benefits Of Value Betting Software
The obvious benefit of Value Betting Finder is convenience by saving a lot of time & effort. It’s impossible for us as a human to scan hundreds of thousands of bets to seek the value even we have a value bet calculator.
As with any form of software, value bets finder gives us great efficiency and practically, we can’t make great profits from value betting without high-quality software.
The software usually requires almost no complicated input from you and a very straightforward process. It does everything so that all that you need to do is just placing the bet when the software alerts you. I
f you already started Sports Arbitrage and have been familiar with an arbitrage bet finder (a.k.a. sure bets finder), then you will find value bet finder very similar to it.
The biggest differences are that value bets software can show far more & could last longer opportunities than the arbitrage bets, because there only has to be deviations in odds on one outcome of the game.
How It Works for Value Betting
The easiest way is to watch the video prepared by Trademate Sports (probably one of the most established Value Bets Finding Software – see the details later).
The video explains the standard process of the software which may generally apply to many available value bets finders in the market although the detail quality varies among software.
How Many Stakes Do You Need To Bet & How Much Money Can You Make?
Stake Size – Kelly Criterion
We use the so-called Kelly Criterion, which calculates the optimal stake for maximum growth of your bankroll, proportional to the perceived value of the bet.
This stake size or allocation is, in fact very important element of value betting.
Unlike Matched Betting or Sports Arbitrage where you hedge risk, value betting has downswings and variance risk. Therefore you need to be very disciplined to stick to the determined formula rather than a haphazard approach being affected by emotion.
Every sharp punter follows this Kelly Criterion;
In most gambling scenarios and some investing scenarios under some simplifying assumptions, the Kelly strategy will do better than any essentially different strategy in the long run (that is, over a span of time in which the observed fraction of bets that are successful equals the probability that any given bet will be successful).
It was described by J. L. Kelly, Jr, a researcher at Bell Labs, in 1956. The practical use of the formula has been demonstrated.Kelly Criterion - Wiki
How To Calculate
The Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp – q) / b = f
b = the Decimal odds -1 p = the probability of success q = the probability of failure (i.e. 1-p) f = the stake amount Let me use a coin toss again as an example of Kelly Criterion; Assuming you are betting on a coin to land on heads at 2.00.
But, if the coin is biased and has a 52% chance of ending up on heads. In this case: p= 0.52 q = 1 – 0.52 = 0.48 b = 2 – 1 = 1 f = (0.52 x 1 – 0.48) / 1 = 0.04
Therefore the Kelly Criterion would recommend you bet 4%. A positive percentage implies an edge in favour of your bankroll, so your funds grow exponentially.
It’s not recommendable to follow the stake calculated by the Kelly Criterion Formula without adjustment, why? Watch the video;
In short, using 100% of Kelly leads to higher variance and steeper draw-downs under the condition of constantly changing odds. Lowering the Kelly stake sizing, together with having a set max bet size, is a good way to manage this risk.
The value bets finder being listed in this article set 30-50% as the default setting which of course you can change.
The point is you don’t need to calculate to determine your stake size for every bet but the value bets software will automatically suggest you the optimal stake.
However, as the video shows if you have huge open bets you may want to adjust a bit – see How To Adjust Your Bankroll While Betting To Reduce Variance.
How Much Money Can We Make? – Value Betting Calculator For Earning Prediction
You may want to take a look at How To Make A Living Sports Betting – Full Assessment of 3 Methods where you will get a good insight on how much income you may earn from Matched Betting, Sports Arbitrage & Value Betting respectively.
All actually depend on the level of your commitment though, when it comes to value betting, as another benchmark, let me use the stat from RebelBetting Value Betting software which has been recently launched (see the details later).
Gathering various feedback from our members as well as available data found in forums etc looks 10% – 20% is a reasonable return using a value bets software.
For your own prediction, you can use RebelBetting Value Bet Calculator for Earning Prediction by playing around the number of bets per day, average stake size, number of days you bet per month etc (these are the factors of your commitment level) as shown in the above image.
Besides, you can see my own actual statistics recorded by using Trademate Sports software later.
Value Betting – Issue & Solutions
Keep betting on value is a professional act, and bookies especially Soft Bookies don’t like it because they know they will lose to us without fail in their business model. BTW, what’s SOFT bookie?
Broadly speaking, there are 2 types of bookies of Soft & Sharp bookies, Just in case, you are not familiar with it, take a look at Beat The Bookies – Secret Of Odds.
However, very quickly, we can characterize each bookie as;
- Soft bookies: Targeting Casual Punters – Run a lot of promotion / Odds adjustment is relatively slow / Impose account restriction (gubbing)
- Sharp bookies: Targeting Professional Punters – Highly competitive odds / High staking limit / Never impose account restriction
You may also want to take a look at List of 35 World Worst Betting Sites That Quickly Restrict Your Account Why do they do? Let me quote Richard Flint, chief executive of Sky Bet;
In short, it may be just a matter of time that soft bookies clamp down on your account of value betting by limiting your maximum stakes.
Avoid Bookmaker’s Radar
Although I said it would be a matter of time, there are many ways to delay or even completely avoid such account restriction/closing.
Despite the fact that a few nasty cases exist like All bets are off! IT worker tells how British bookies froze his account because he was winning TOO MUCH, as the CEO of Sky Bet said they don’t close the account just because you keep winning.
The key is your betting behaviour such as “consistently beating the starting price of their selections ” which is a typical case for value bettors.
Each bookmaker has own unique monitoring criteria to assess your betting activities though we already identified key assessment elements and we have prepared the following 2 guides;
The good part of Value Betting Without Risk-Hedge (, which is what you do using value bet finder tools) can be a relatively less limitation as the Canadian member of Rebelbetting said as;
Focus On Sharp Punters
Even if you get restricted all your soft bookies, don’t worry, sharp punters are your permanent buddy. You can keep winning there, suggest checking List of 20 World Best Online Bookies That Never Restrict Your Account.
Sharp bookies are often in Asia / Caribbean regions, and if you reside in the country/jurisdiction where those bookies don’t accept, you can use Bet Brokers – see Honest Opinion About Bet Broker & How To Use Them Safely & Smartly for the full details.
Lastly, let me quote Richard Flint again;
And after BetVictor, Betfair Sportsbook and William Hill’s online operations, they actually offer Minimum Bet Guarantee, which is a good step in the right direction and one that could encourage more operators to follow suit. Not bad news for value bettors.
List Of Best Value Betting Software
As said at the beginning, let me introduce 2 Value Betting Software, which we believe the most reliable & workable in the industry based on the feedback from our own members’ real experiences.
Many betting software in the market are produced by tech guys, namely programmers but the both we are listing here are designed & produced by the team of professional punters (both are coincidentally poker players) & developers. As a result, they are very user friendly and practical.
Trademate was founded by childhood friends Messrs Jonas Gjelstad & Marius Norheim in 2014. Many of our members reported “Consistent Earnings Without Any Single Losing Month”.
We examined Trademate Core by ourselves and we now feel it’s a Genuine Long-Term Solution especially for Matched Bettors who are fed up with Gubbing.
Interview With CEO
I should not forget to share their fantastic data presentation, which automatically gives you very comprehensive analysis on your betting activities.
Actual Trading – My Own Experience
The below shows my past 2 weeks trading results using Trademate Software with the following conditions;
- No of Bookmakers: 25 (several of them are gubbed accounts, but only restricted from promotion, thus free to bet even large stake)
- Period: 2 weeks
- No. Of Bets: 547 (so, average 40 bets per day, but heavily skewed toward the weekend, majority of the bets: football 1x2 )
- Starting Bank: GBP2,800
- Profits: GBP599 thus 21.3% Total Fund Growth with an average 4.6% ROI
- Comments: I tried several betting patterns such as big stake with fewer bets focusing on big value etc. The bigger value opportunities tend to be longer odds means you are more likely to face more variance. The best performance I experienced was following 1.3 - 2.0 odds range with 25% of Kelly Criterion stake allocation. So try it by yourself for Free for 1 Week!!
How To Start
A Free 7 Days Trial
- Go A Free 7 Days Trial and “Sign Up” at the right top button to register.
- Then, you click “Upgrade” button to activate your free trial.
- After you validate your registered e-mail, you will automatically enrol & experience the trading feed for 7 days free.
- You need to upgrade to the paid subscription after the expiry.
- Firstly, you may want to take a 1-month plan in order to further monitor your progress while examining the best fit for your lifestyle as well as your risk tolerance.
- Once you feel comfortable to go for the long-term, you may want a 3-month plan.
- Remember, your profits are directly correlated to your turnover. The more bets you place, the more you’ll earn in the long-run.
RebelBetting Value Betting Software
RebelBetting is famous for the Best Sports Arbitrage Software (see our RebelBetting Full Review) and they just launched a brand-new Value Bets Software. Needless to say, their proven technology has been well integrated into this Value Betting Software.
What's the biggest advantage over the Trademate Sports? Cheaper monthly subscription fee and an AutoSurf technology that automatically logs you into your bookmaker account finds the correct match and highlights the odds, very efficient & risk-avoiding system (for making a careless human error).
Trademate Sports also provide you with this system though, it doesn't apply to all the bookies but only the ones indication "Betslip", which is around half of the covered bookies.
RebelBetting Value Betting Software - Quick Start Manual
The below gives you a brief process of how to use RebelBetting Value Bets Finder from Value Betting Quick Start;
Just follow the step of;
- Enter your current bankroll at the top.
- Pick a value bet in the list and press the Bet button
- Our AutoSurf technology automatically logs you into your bookmaker account, finds the correct match and highlights the odds. Enter your credentials under Options / Bookmaker Setup.
- You double-check the bet, enter your stakes and confirm the bet.
- Log your bet.
Hints and tips
- Make sure your current bankroll is updated at least every day, which ensures the kelly stake sizing is correctly calculated and it is especially important in a downswing.
- Don’t bet on the highest odds simply because they give the highest value. Higher odds are more unlikely to result in a win and this will increase the variance.
- Very high value % has a larger risk of being a palpable error. It’s better to check if other bookmaker’s odds are similar. Palpable errors are not as dangerous as when arbitrage trading since you will just get your money returned. But it might still look suspicious to the bookmaker.
- To reduce variance, set a maximum odds to bet on. For instance up to 3.0 – 3.5. Have an even lower max-odds to further reduce variance. For instance, don’t bet on value bets with odds higher than around 2.5. This is of course all depending on how much variance you are willing to take.
- Set a maximum stake realative to your bankroll.
RebelBetting ValueBetting Software & Price
They offer 1 product with €79 monthly & €356 for 6 months (€59/month);
I'm discussing full RebelBetting Value Betting review in this guide, where you will also find "Workable Countries" & "Proven Model to Double Your Funds in 3 Months" + 1 Month FREE Link.
Alternatives To Value Betting Software
What you may, however, find is that some bookmakers may be able to identify that you are using bet finder software. As we’ve noted, the software can do things that people cannot, certain bookmakers’ own software can identify when your betting patterns are unusual by the following software.
So for those who prefer human, the below shows 2 best options;
SBC (Smart Betting Club) - For The Players in UK / Europe
This is not a tipster but a tipster proofing & rating institution and probably the most reputable rating service supported by a frequent quote by media in this industry. Their primary region is UK & Europe. Please take a look at our Smart Betting Club Review – Inside Analysis Of Ultimate Sports Betting Method.
- Their Hall Of Fame Tipsters (top 22+ tipsters) are the results of SBC’s over decade’s proofing & rating work, of which rating criteria are very strict. Therefore, their top-rated tipsters have large chances to be sustainable for the long-term in the future.
- Many members report over £10,000 profit last year from SBC service, strongly suggest read the above our review for full details.
Combination of Human & Software
ZCode System - For The Players Anywhere In The World
This is probably one of the most successful sports investing system in the world. Their priority sports area is US 4 Major sports (also cover soccer & horse racing) but being used by the customers worldwide. ZCode system comprises Computer Automated Tips based on huge database & Human Expert Tips. Please take a look at; ZCode Review – Full Inside Analysis / Founder Interview / Secret Of Winners Worldwide
- All of their tips are publicized in the private site & forum, thus being verified by thousands of members.
- Actually, their records are verified publicly all the way back to 1999 by back-testing and also forward testing, of which significantly large database prove authentic & reliable numbers.
- The tips are produced based on the analysis of over 800 parameters and their rating on all different strategies enables the members to choose the best-fit tactics from 120+ available systems.
- All of their quoting prices is Pinnacle, which gives a good base for better profit in the long-term.
Value Betting Software - Conclusion
As said before, we GEM recommend Progression Approach for Advantage Plays, means startup with Guaranteed Income (Betting With Hedge), namely Matched Betting & Sports Arbitrage, then move into Betting Without Hedge, which is what we have discussed here.
Matched Betting may come first because even your account restriction is usually so-called Gubbing which is banned from only promotional offers.
Means you still have large chances to bet without stake limit, which is well fit for Value Bets. However, if you exploit sports arbitrage, your account could face stake limitation which also limits your earning possibilities in value bets.
So, eventually it's up to you though, let me briefly summarize the comparison between Sports Arbitrage & Value Bets Finder as follows; Basics
- Sports arbitrage is betting on all outcomes of the match while Value betting is taking advantage of a single incorrect odds, that is higher than expected probability. Therefore, in Value betting, you place one bet, but in Sports Arbitrage you need to place two or three bets.
- Sports Arbitrage comes with theoretically No-Risk while Value Bet faces risks of losing with variance.
- The average value percentage (ROI% per bet) is higher for value bets than arbitrage bets.
- In Sports Arbitrage, you will need more complicated money management with 10+ bookies by distributing & tying your capital among them, on the other hand, Value Betting requires much fewer bookies.
- Value Bets opportunities occur more often than Sports Arbitrage bets because there only has to be deviations in odds on one outcome of the game.
- Bookmakers tend to spot Arbitrage bettors easier than Value Bettors because it requires the market to be too high on all sides of the game.
- The potential risk is that the other odds changes after the first bet placement, leaving one side uncovered.
- Palpable errors & voided bets will leave the outcome uncovered elements would leave you exposed on one side of the arbitrage.
- There is an inherent risk and variance because you only bet one side of the match, you will often lose the bet. It is variance.
- Means in value betting, you will experience downswings thus you must be prepared to lose several matches in a row without freaking out.
- Value betting takes less time and is less complicated with less start-up bank. You will achieve higher profits with higher ROI & more opportunities but face variance that requires your higher losing-tolerance. You can expect less account limit, means longer earning period possibly life-time.
- Sports Arbitrage is theoretically No-Risk betting so-called Sure Bet. Thus you don’t need to worry about any losing bets. But it requires more complicated betting process & money management and could be short-lived by facing bookies’ account limit easily.
Simply put, if you are ready to accept variance, you should go for Value Betting rather than Sports Arbitrage. Your earnings will last longer without being limited by the bookmakers because you will look more like a casual punter. As a matter of fact, it’s easier to focus on the largest leagues, and bet smaller stakes, which is what you do in value bet, simple as that.
Advantage Gambling Principle
Lastly, allow us to share a bit about our betting principle. Many people automatically believe in Betting = Gambling. No, it's Not Correct, gambling is to play games of chance for money.
We Do Betting But We Don't Count On Chance. Instead, we do 6 Advantage Plays based on mathematical edge to beat the bookies, casino & bingo.
We can rake bookies' numerous bonuses in real cash without (sports betting via matched betting) or with very limited (casino & bingo) risk, and via Sports Arbitrage / Value Bets On Proven Software, Tipsters (handicappers) & Systems we lock-in profit or consistently earn extra income for long-term.
With that said, one of our policies is "Betting On Luck Is For Losers, Stop Gamble Betting But Bet on Only +EV (Expected Value) To Win Reliably".
As our name GEM (Global Extra Money) implies, we strive to help Our Readers From All Over The World to Make Extra Income Consistently & Reliably. Providing the Tactics & List Of The Best Value Bets Finder is 1 of our efforts to achieve that vision.
Value Betting Software For International Players
We have introduced 2 Best Value Bets Finding Software in this Value Bets Finder guide. And they (Coincidentally Both Of Them are from Scandinavia) cover key online bookmakers & betting exchanges all over the world.
Means, as long as you live in a country where online gambling is legitimate, you are most likely to make the best use of them. And, in fact, there are only 8 Countries (Cyprus, Poland, North Korea, United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Brunei, Cambodia) that legally prohibit online betting. Strongly suggest take a look at :
I have to stress that especially the above Bitcoin Betting will pave the way for all US citizens and those who can't access to online bookmakers to make thousands of extra income risk-free, Very useful, worth your time to check.
Hope these will help for your Consistent Long-Term Betting Earnings.
If you have any inquiry or need any help from us, please contact us anytime (don't worry, we will not charge you any fee, everything is free here).
Joshua Walker (bio)
Editor - Global Extra Money (GEM)