3 Advantage Gambling in Sports Betting – Guide For Ordinary People To Beat Bookies
Estimated Reading Time: 26 minutes
The “Show” box underneath displays Full Contents & Jump Links for your convenience.
- 1. What’s Advantage Gambling?
- 2. Advantage Gambling for Sports Betting
- 3. Sports Advantage Gambling – Conclusion
What’s Advantage Gambling?
Advantage Gambling – Academic Elite’s Favorite
Highly educated people seem to like advantage gambling. Grads from world top unis explored this approach and successfully delivered the results. Let me accurately describe the facts that although they bet but don’t gamble, instead they do advantage gambling which doesn’t count on chance.
I quoted Patrick Veitch from a Cambridge University as the bookies Enemy No.1 and Naoya Kihara from Tokyo University as a porker champion in this guide, and they are the top university in the UK & Japan respectively.
Now, I am introducing a Team of mastermind at the top university in the US. Have you ever heard about MIT Blackjack Team? Yes, MIT stands for Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The story of the team was made into the movie “21" based on the book of “Bringing Down The House" written by Ben Mezrich.
MIT Blackjack Team is in fact a group of students from the MIT, Harvard Business School, Harvard University and Princeton University. They used card counting techniques to beat casinos at blackjack worldwide. The team and its successors operated successfully from 1979 through the beginning of the 21st century.
One member said in the interview that the biggest win the team ever had in a trip was close to half a million dollars. Wow, huge. As said, the card counting technique they used is called Advantage Gambling (or Advantage play) in this industry (they actually combined it with team-play strategy).
Advantage Gambling Essence
Well, why am I talking about this story? Because when we say Porker, Casino or Sports Betting, many people’ first reaction is Gambling is not for me. However, as briefly said, all these people never do Gambling but they do play only when they think they have Positive EP (Expected Value) that is the underlying mathematical base of Advantage Gambling.
Our aim of playing Sports Betting is to achieve Extra Income by making the best use of this Advantage Gambling rather than betting on sports for fun as a casual better. I focus on Sports Betting in this report though you may be interested in the full guide of all 6 Advantage Gambling we use.
A Few Popular Casino Advantage Gambling
Before moving into Sports Betting, let me list a few popular Advantage Gambling used in casino as follows;
This is one of the most popular advantage gambling. What MIT team did was to determine whether the next hand is likely to give a probable advantage to the player or to the dealer. Card counting allows players to bet more with less risk when the count gives an advantage as well as minimize losses during an unfavorable count. Card counting also provides the ability to alter playing decisions based on the composition of remaining cards.
However, casinos sometimes take measures to thwart players who do card counting. It will depend on whether you are allowed to continue or not once your trick has been noticed. In some American states, using methods to enhance your winning that significantly change the game of chance are considered to be cheating or illegal.
The violence scene in the “21" movie was definitely an exaggerated though, many casinos’ countermeasures include shuffling more frequently, imposing betting limits, “backing off" the player by asking him not to play blackjack any more, or asking the player to leave the casino. Players caught counting cards may find themselves listed in the Griffin Book and become unwelcome in most casinos. In any case, you need a very keen eye to master this technique.
Some people learn how to throw a dice to their advantage. This is helpful in a game like Craps. Learning this skill, if indeed you truly can, will help change the luck into something a little more calculated and can thus help you win.
As you imagine, it is not easy to master because you have to grip the dice in a certain way and throw it at a certain angle too, this in itself is a skill. Very skillful roulette dealer is said to be able to control the ball, well this is a sort of technique people can’t master overnight. Casinos are aware of this tactics and craps players are often stopped from playing if the dice fail to bounce off the back wall of the table. Anyhow you need extensive training to master this technique, and you don’t even know if you can really master eventually.
Although these advantage gamblings are usually not regarded as committing fraud against the casino in most jurisdictions, but yet it depends. Some players may face the threat of criminal prosecution for their behavior even in well known gambling locations like Monte Carlo. Besides, as mentioned already, in order to be a pro, you do have to make massive training and probably you need a talent, means not for everybody.
Advantage Gambling for Sports Betting
3 Sports Betting Advantage Gambling Methods
On the other hand, our advantage gambling used in the below 3 Sports Betting should abide by the established rules of the game. Thus in most jurisdictions, they are never considered to be illegal. So you don’t have to worry about committing fraud against bookmakers although you may face certain account limitation at some point.
Importantly you don’t need any special talent nor any extensive training.
As you’re aware that both card counting & dice control are used in the land casino while our sports advantage gamblings are all via online sportsbook, thus can be used by almost everyone in the world.
There are good system / software / professionals you can use to make the best use of the advantage gambling. Most importantly, you can start now to make real cash today by using our GEM Guides. Don’t Worry, everything is free in our site.
We focus on 3 methods that make the best use of mathematical & analytical advantage over bookmaker’s odds as below;
- 1) Matched Betting – Our Full List of Matched Betting Instructions
- 2) Sports Arbitrage – Our Full Guide Including Account Restriction Countermeasures
- 3) Value Betting – Our List of Proven Software / Systems / Tipsters
Advantage Gambling Basic Notion
“The House Always Wins" is the standard saying in the gambling industry. It’s simply based on the fact that the bookmakers / casinos set marginal edge over the players. Means what the bookies pay out to customers is always smaller than the actual chance of the event happening. As a result they will make guaranteed money in long term even they lose in short-term variances.
With the advantage gambling, we are able to take this edge away from them and give ourselves the edge. Although the specific way to do so depends on each method, we always evaluate the edge in the form of EV (Expected Value) on every opportunity and as long as we find Positive EV that gives us Long-Term Value we think it worth pursuing.
You have sure chances to create Solid Extra Income Stream with these 3 Advantage Gambling.
When it comes to the order of the 3 sports advantage gambling, we suggest take a form of progression as below;
- Starting from Matched Betting (Dummies Guide) / Sports Arbitrage (Cheat-sheet for Dummies), because these are basically risk-free and you can lock-in profit from almost every bet.
- However, these 2 methods could be short-lived due to the ever tightening soft bookies’ account restriction & limited profit scale comes from the risk-hedging nature. See the rationale in Know Know Bookies’ Business Model
- Thus, evolving into Value Betting On Proven Tipsters which is more scale with better efficiency for long-term is a natural move as an ultimate betting activity.
This progression tactics is very logical and the safest approach for newbies.
I’ll elaborate a bit on one by one.
1) Matched Betting
Matched betting is the safest & easiest method to earn risk-free profits. You will find all the basics in Matched Betting For Dummies.
Matched betting employs the same concept of the next arbitrage. Notable difference is using Free Bets / Bonus offered by bookmakers, therefore the return rate is much higher than arbitrage. Typical return for a matched betting are, where the stake is returned is 90%+ of the free bet amount, and 80%+ where the stake is not returned (don’t be bothered by these terms you will be fully instructed once you go our instruction documents).
The other difference is using a betting exchange in one side rather than using multiple bookmakers (arbitrage can also use an exchange). So it also provides you with 100 % Risk Free Guaranteed Profit because half of your bet is a free bet given by the bookmaker.
Bookies Offer / Free Bet
The bookmakers’ promotional offer can be broadly split into 2 categories;
Be noted that many matched bettors somehow believe that matched betting finishes once they extract several thousands of £ from all the bookies welcome offer. However the fact is that the real big sustainable income comes from the above 2) reload offers.
Those are represented by Horse Racing Refunds, Football Refunds, and Accumulator Refunds etc which you receive every day from tens of bookmakers. They can be categorized into;
- 1. Guaranteed Profit with Risk Free
- 2. No Guaranteed Profit but Risk Free
- 3. No Guaranteed Profit with Extremely Low Risk.
If you want, you can stick exclusively to risk-free offers, but you’ll significantly hamper your profits if you do so. We instruct you only ever attempt offers where we have a mathematical edge over the bookmaker, that makes it impossible for us not to make money over the long term.
For non-risk free offers, it means technically you won’t make a profit every single time, but across dozens and hundreds of offers, it is essentially impossible not to profit hugely.
What you need is Not to care about how much profit you make from each individual offer, and focus more on the idea of how much profit you make over the long-term, namely long term value. If you can consistently get value from the offers you do, it is a mathematical certainty that you will make money.
So, even if the offer is NOT risk free but as long as the EV is positive, it is 100% worth doing.
Although it depends on your commitment, you will be able to earn around £1,000 from matched betting every month with 30 – 60 minutes effort every day which are reported in the forums of matched betting system provider Profit Accumulator.
If you’re seeking premium matched betting service including sophisticated ACCA software, the below 3 are the current best choices;
- Oddsmonkey – Full Review “Full Inside Analysis Through The Founder Interview“
- Profit Accumulator – Full Review “Should We Believe 20,000 Members’ Earning Claim? “
- Profit Maximiser – Full Review “The Engineer Of Matched Betting Success, Still Good?"
- And – Their Current Best Deal
2) Sports Arbitrage – Theoretically 100% Risk Free (but Not Effort Free & Not Careless Mistake Free)
Sports arbitrage betting is the action of betting on both sides of a game at different sports books to guarantee a profit no matter the outcome of the game. It is generally considered risk-free as it is based on the application of a mathematical equation rather than chance. However, it doesn’t mean there is no pitfall, I discuss details in this guide.
Let’s briefly see how it works. You back all competing sides of a sporting event at different bookmakers using the highest odds available to set up a situation where each outcome will result in winnings greater than the total amount risked. This possibility arises from a difference in opinion about the fair odds of the event by each bookmaker. Means, one bookmaker has given the favorite higher than usual odds, while the other bookmakers has given the underdog higher than usual odds.
Individually neither bookmaker will make a loss. However if you take the combination of the two or more higher than usual odds, it may be possible to bet on all outcomes with profit. So, no matter who wins the sports event, your winnings will cover all bets completely and return a profit.
Therefore it is also called a sure bet because it’s an opportunity of betting which gives you 100% chance of the win. For those who know the theory but look for a practical instruction, you will find it in Sports Arbitrage – Cheatsheet For Dummies To Become A Seasoned Arber Overnight.
You will be able to earn 10 – 15% on your bankroll. So the expected amount depends on your money you can allocate for this advantage gambling. If you prepare £5,000 then £500 – 750 would be the anticipated sure income.
There are 2 essential points, which are;
- Don’t try to do everything by yourself, you need a top quality software to earn the above income
- You will have large chances to be Gubbed by bookmakers (means your account will be restricted) if you constantly play arbitrage trading, so you need to take a series of cautious tactics & actions – see at the end of this guide.
3) Value Betting – Be “Sharp"
Given the hedging nature, the above 2 methods are all about scalping small margins. Thus, Value Betting WITHOUT RISK-HEDGE which is more scale with better efficiency for long-term comes in.
In the betting industry, professional punters are called “Sharp". How can Sharp consistently win? Because they use value betting.
It’s true that most bookmakers are very good at setting odds, estimating the true chance of sporting results and locking in a profit margin. However sports are not statistically quantifiable in the sense that cards or other forms of casino gambling are where simple laws of probability govern the outcome of games. We all know that there is 1/38 true chance of landing a number 36 on an American wheel. But, how can we know what the true probability that Real Madrid wins the next Champions league is?
Besides, if we predict the probability then how much can we be sure that our estimate is more accurate than the bookmaker’s? As you are aware, the answers to these questions only come with effort & experience, by acquiring a “knowledge" of a sport and its betting market, and a familiarity with the way bookmakers set their odds. These are in short accumulated Data & Expertise.
How The Value Can Be Created & Identified
There are 2 occasions producing Value Bet, which are:
- 1. bookmakers make mistakes – no need to explain further.
- 2. bookmaker odds adjustment – Ideally the Sportsbook would like to have the same amount of money wagered on the two teams playing. When Man U are playing Arsenal and they have one punter betting on the Man U and one punter betting on the Arsenal. They would pay the winner $100 but collect $110 for the loser. This gives them a $10 profit so they really don’t care who wins as long as they have an equal amount bet on each team which is called Balancing The Book. To accomplish this they assign a line or spread to make the contest equally attractive for both sides. If the public is swayed by sentiment to bet on a certain team say Man U, then the odds makers need to adjust the line to get some action on the other team. Otherwise the betting would be heavily lopsided. The general betting public reacts from the opinions of others. This is why you see so many people “Jumping on the band wagon” of a winning team.
For the sportsbooks the odds is flawed if it does not attract the same amount of action on both sides. However from the Sharp’s point of view, the odds line is flawed when it does not compute to his predicted outcome of the game. A weaker team can actually become the favorite if public sentiment is with that team. When this happens the underdog presents a huge overlay for the Sharp meaning that the odds are in his favor.
For example: Player A should be underdog to Player B, however the public loves Player A and are betting on them and the odds moves to make Player A favorite, then Player B becomes an excellent bet. This is the contrarian principle and why many Sharps go against the general betting public.
The Sharp formulate their own opinions about the game and ignores most of the public sentiment. The Sharp take information for numerous sources, assigns weights and values to it. They will make their own power ranking and predict the result without looking at the official odds first, and then compare their predictions to the odds / line to look for any advantageous discrepancies (value bet), which will provide you with steady income, and it’s more so if you play longer because of the positive Expected Value.
There are 3 following proven methods for value betting;
The tips created by A) – C) are not risk free. But for the experienced advantage player who understand the above principle, it can often be the easiest and could be the most lucrative. It fully depends on your money management ability and particularly your tolerance against variance. When you take tips 5 times, then you may not be able to win the first 4 times in a row and lose £10 – 20 each time, but the 5th time may bring you over £200.
We talk about Expected Value which is an Average Value and the average will always come through over the long term. You’ll definitely have ups and downs a.k.a. variances, but as long as you take up only the +EV tips, you will result in profit. You CAN’T BEAT MATH therefore you WILL WIN. The conclusion is once you decide to pursue this category, you have to be patient and keep betting as many as possible. The more you do the better chance you get more profit – you are protected by Math Logic based on Probability Theory.
BTW, you need also the best bookmaker that welcome Professional Punters. From this perspective, Pinnacle is indisputably No.1 in the world, but Pinnacle don’t allow many countries, so check Pinnacle Review if you can be accepted. Besides, you may want to see the the Sharp bookies list which never restrict winners.
Sports Advantage Gambling – Conclusion
OK, having explained, let’s see how people like sports betting.
How Popular Is Sports Betting?
According to Data Bridge Market Research, Global sports betting market is projected to achieve CAGR of 9.45% in the period of 2019- 2026 as below;
People like sports betting, but the harsh reality is over 95% of the punters loose. However, it’s also true that 5% consistently wins and they can do so because they do only advantage gambling.
In other words, as long as you can play advantage gambling, there is a good chance to have steady additional income stream which would be a Safety-net to your life. Just in case you want to know if you can make ends meet with these 3 Sports Betting, you will find our in-depth examination in How To Make Living Sports Betting
The best part of sports betting is that you can start building new income streams in areas you are most interested in while not bothering your time to the extent affecting your full time employment.
I assume most of you have at least 1 favorable sports. You must have reasonable knowledge on that sports and if you can produce the extra earnings in your favorable sports categories, it could be fun. Although our focus is not for fun, but obviously having fun is the added value to your life and you may spare your time for doing it passionately.
Besides, Sports-betting is absolutely no correlations with your other incomes from financial assets, means it’s a good category of diversification.
For Global Players
As our name Global Extra Money implies, we would like many people from all over the world to enjoy our 3 Sports advantage gambling methods as much as possible. Therefore, we have issued :
In Short, except 8 Countries (Cyprus, Poland, North Korea, United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Brunei, Cambodia) where on-line gamble is legally prohibited, all of you can make profit from matched betting, see the above report for full details.
Always Be Cautious & Smart
Finally, the MIT blackjack team no longer exists according to Mike Aponte, the basis for the Fisher character in the “21" movie. Wired.com reported that “In the movie, Cole Williams (Laurence Fishburne) is a casino security expert who investigates the team. Fishburne’s character was not specifically based on any single real life individual. The 21 movie’s true story reveals that the real MIT Blackjack Team was investigated by Griffin Investigations, a security agency that had been used by casinos worldwide.
Andy Anderson, a tall silver-haired man who worked for Griffin, followed the team for four to five years and played a major role in exposing their strategy. As a result, several of the MIT team members were black-booked by Griffin. Their faces landed in the Griffin Book, a dossier of photos distributed to casinos around the world (Breaking Vegas). These players are usually allowed on the casino floor, but are forbidden to go near the blackjack tables. “.
The below is a real Griffin Report about Mike Aponte.
Remember, “The nail that sticks out gets hammered down", Be Low Profile To Be Smart.’ In the Sports Betting, what we need to be careful is Bookmaker’s Account Restriction / Gubbing.
If you keep taking too much value from the SOFT bookmakers, it’s just a matter of time before most of the soft bookies limit your account if you do matched betting without any precautionary actions. So, we have prepared the following 2 guides – One is Before Restriction, The Other One is After Restriction;
We believe the above 2 guides will help you keep exploiting unfair bookies, means will enable you to make money on the side reliably for long-term.
Hope this guide will pave the way to your new extra income journey.
Joshua Walker (bio)
BTW, we GEM deal with 6 Advantage Play as follows;
For Full Index of Our Guides, Go;
List Of Special Reports – All Information are Based On Our Intensive Research & Professional Analysis