3 Advantage Gambling in Sports Betting – Guide For Ordinary People To Beat Bookies
Estimated Reading Time: 23 minutes
- 1. We Share 3 Specific Sports Betting Tactics Based On Advantage Gambling For Anybody To Make Risk Free Profit!!
- 2. Now, Let’s Move To Sports Betting To Beat Bookies
We Share 3 Specific Sports Betting Tactics Based On Advantage Gambling For Anybody To Make Risk Free Profit!!
Do you believe in living off gambling? Grads from world top unis tend to explore this approach and actually achieved it. Let me correctly say that they don’t actually do gambling but advantage gambling which doesn’t count on chance. I quoted Patrick Veitch from a Cambridge University as the bookies Enemy No.1 and Naoya Kihara from Tokyo University as a porker champion in my special report of 3 Smart Ways to Create Extra Income Stream from Home;
They graduated from the top university in the UK & Japan.
Now, I am introducing a Team of mastermind at the top university in the US. Have you ever heard about MIT Blackjack Team? Yes, MIT is Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The story of the team was made into the movie “21" based on the book of “Bringing Down The House" written by Ben Mezrich. MIT Blackjack Team is in fact a group of students from the MIT, Harvard Business School, Harvard University and Princeton University. They used card counting techniques to beat casinos at blackjack worldwide. The team and its successors operated successfully from 1979 through the beginning of the 21st century. One member said in the interview that the biggest win the team ever had in a trip was close to half a million dollars. Wow, huge extra income. The card counting technique they used is called Advantage Gambling (or Advantage play) in this industry (they actually combined it with team-play strategy).
Well, why am I talking about this story? Because when we say Porker, Casino or Sports Betting, many people’ first reaction is Gambling is not for me. However, as briefly said, all these people never do Gambling but they do play only when they think they have Positive EP (Expected Value), that is the underlying mathematical base of Advantage Gambling.
Our aim of playing Sports Betting is to achieve Extra Income by making the best use of this Advantage Gambling rather than betting on sports for fun as a casual better. I focus on Sports Betting in this report though you may be interested in the full guide of all 6 Advantage Gambling we use.
A Few Popular Casino Advantage Gambling
Before moving into Sports Betting, let me list a few popular Advantage Plays used in casino as follows;
This is one of the most popular advantage gambling. What MIT team did was to determine whether the next hand is likely to give a probable advantage to the player or to the dealer. Card counting allows players to bet more with less risk when the count gives an advantage as well as minimize losses during an unfavorable count. Card counting also provides the ability to alter playing decisions based on the composition of remaining cards.
However, casinos sometimes take measures to thwart players who do card counting. It will depend on whether you are allowed to continue or not once your trick has been noticed. In some American states, using methods to enhance your winning that significantly change the game of chance are considered to be cheating or illegal.
The violence scene in the “21" movie was definitely an exaggerated though, many casinos’ countermeasures include shuffling more frequently, imposing betting limits, “backing off" the player by asking him not to play blackjack any more, or asking the player to leave the casino. Players caught counting cards may find themselves listed in the Griffin Book and become unwelcome in most casinos. In any case, you need a very keen eye to master this technique.
Some people learn how to throw a dice to their advantage. This is helpful in a game like Craps. Learning this skill, if indeed you truly can, will help change the luck into something a little more calculated and can thus help you win. As you imagine, it is not easy to master because you have to grip the dice in a certain way and throw it at a certain angle too, this in itself is a skill. Very skillful roulette dealer is said to be able to control the ball, well this is a sort of technique people can’t master overnight. Casinos are aware of this tactics and craps players are often stopped from playing if the dice fail to bounce off the back wall of the table. Anyhow you need extensive training to master this technique, and you don’t even know if you can really master eventually.
Although these advantage gambling are usually not regarded as committing fraud against the casino in most jurisdictions (except receiving certain casino-imposed sanctions), this is not the case in all jurisdictions. Ssome players may face the threat of criminal prosecution for their behavior even in well known gambling locations like Monte Carlo. Besides, as mentioned already, in order to be a pro, you do have to make massive training and probably you need a talent, means not for everybody.
Now, Let’s Move To Sports Betting To Beat Bookies
On the other hand, the below advantage gambling used in Sports Betting should abide by the established rules of the game. Thus in most jurisdictions, they are never considered illegal. So you don’t have to worry about committing fraud against bookmakers although you may face certain account limitation called Gubbing at some point. Importantly you don’t need any special talent nor any extensive training. There are good system / software / professionals you can use to make the best use of the advantage gambling. Most importantly, you can start now to make real cash today by using our GEM information- see the bottom of this report for its brief information, Don’t Worry, Everything Is Free in our site.
3 Advantage Gambling Methods
We focus on 3 methods that make the best use of mathematical & analytical advantage over bookmaker’s odds as below;
1) Sports Arbitrage – Our Full Guide Including Account Restriction Countermeasures
2) Matched Betting – Our Full List of Matched Betting Instructions
3) Value Bet – Our List of Proven Tipsters & Excellent / Worst Bookies;
You have sure chances to create Solid Extra Income Stream with these 3 Advantage Gambling. When it comes to the order, we suggest take a form of progression. Namely start up with Matched Betting / Arbitrage then move to more advanced Value Bet on Proven Tipsters that will take your betting activities to the next level.
I’ll elaborate a bit on one by one.
1) Sports Arbitrage – Theoretically100% Risk Free (but Not Effort Free & Not Careless Mistake Free)
Sports arbitrage betting is the action of betting on both sides of a game at different sports books to guarantee a profit no matter the outcome of the game. It is generally considered risk-free as it is based on the application of a mathematical equation rather than chance. However, for this particular risk point, pls go Is Sports Arbitrage Really 100% Risk Free Sure Bet? ;
Let’s briefly see how it works. You back all competing sides of a sporting event at different bookmakers using the highest odds available to set up a situation where each outcome will result in winnings greater than the total amount risked. This possibility arises from a difference in opinion about the fair odds of the event by each bookmaker. Means, one bookmaker has given the favorite higher than usual odds, while the other bookmakers has given the underdog higher than usual odds.
Individually neither bookmaker will make a loss. However if you take the combination of the two or more higher than usual odds, it may be possible to bet on all outcomes with profit. So, no matter who wins the sports event, your winnings will cover all bets completely and return a profit. Therefore it is also called a sure bet because it’s an opportunity of betting which gives you 100% chance of the win. Well, at least in theory. In reality, there are several pitfalls you need to avoid which you can find the above special report. For those who know the theory but look for a practical instruction, you will find it in Sports Arbitrage – Cheatsheet For Dummies To Become A Seasoned Arber Overnight;
You will be able to earn 10 – 15% on your bankroll. So the expected amount depends on your money you can allocate for this advantage gambling. If you prepare £5,000 then £500 – 750 would be the anticipated sure income.
There are 2 essential points, which are;
– Don’t try to do everything by yourself, you need a top quality software to earn the above income (you will find them in the above reports)
– You will have large chances to be Gubbed by bookmakers (means your account will be restricted) if you constantly play arbitrage trading, so you need to take a series of cautious tactics & actions – see at the end of this report.
2) Matched Betting
Matched betting employs the same concept of the arbitrage. Notable difference is effectively using Free Bets / Bonus offered by bookmakers, therefore the return rate is much higher than arbitrage. Typical return for a matched bet are, where the stake is returned is 90%+ of the free bet amount, and 80%+ where the stake is not returned (don’t be bothered by these terms you will be fully instructed once you go our instruction documents). The other difference is using a betting exchange in one side rather than using multiple bookmakers (arbitrage can also use an exchange). So it also provides you with 100 % Risk Free Guaranteed Profit because half of your bet is a free bet given by the bookmaker. You will find all the basics in Matched Betting For Dummies – 9 Essential Things You Should Know Before Staking Any Real Money;
It’s one of the simplest extra income ideas. Let me elaborate on what exactly we are trying to achieve with matched betting. “The House Always Wins" is the standard saying in the gambling industry. It’s simply based on the fact that the bookmakers / casinos set marginal edge over the players. Means what the bookies pay out to customers is always smaller than the actual chance of the event happening. As a result they will make guaranteed money in long term even they lose in occasional huge jackpot because they own a mathematical edge. With the matched betting as an advantage play we use, we are able to take this edge away from them and give ourselves the edge. We evaluate the edge in the form of EV (Expected Value) on every opportunity and as long as we find Positive EV that gives us Long-Term Value we think it worth pursuing.
Bookies Offer / Free Bet
The bookmakers’ promotional offer can broadly split into 2 categories;
- 1) Welcome Offer like William Hill Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bet;
- We show you Step by Step instruction, for this particular offer, you see it in our Matched Betting Starting Guide: New Customer Offer (2): Qualifying Process & (3) Extract Profit;
- 2) Reload Offer like Bet365 Feature Race 4/1 Offer; we provide you with very specific technique to lock-in profit this offer in Bet365 Matched Betting Instruction – How to Lock-in Profit All the Key Offers ;
Many matched bettors somehow believe that matched betting finishes once they extract several thousands of £ from all the bookies welcome offer. However the fact is that the real big sustainable income comes from the reload offers. Those are represented by Horse Racing Refunds, Football Refunds, and Accumulator Refunds etc which you receive every day from tens of bookmakers. They can be categorized into;
- 1. Guaranteed Profit with Risk Free
- 2. No Guaranteed Profit but Risk Free
- 3. No Guaranteed Profit with Extremely Low Risk.
If you want, you can stick exclusively to risk-free offers, but you’ll significantly hamper your profits if you do so. We instruct you only ever attempt offers where we have a mathematical edge over the bookmaker, that makes it impossible for us not to make money over the long term. For non-risk free offers, it means technically you won’t make a profit every single time, but across dozens and hundreds of offers, it is essentially impossible not to profit hugely.
What you need is Not to care about how much profit you make from each individual offer, and focus more on the idea of how much profit you make over the long-term., namely long term value. If you can consistently get value from the offers you do, it is a mathematical certainty that you will make money. So, even if the offer is NOT risk free but as long as the EV is positive, it is 100% worth doing.
Although it depends on your commitment, you will be able to earn around £1,000 from matched betting every month with 30 – 60 minutes effort every day which are reported in the forums of matched betting system providers, Profit Maximiser & Profit Accumulator (go our GEM Matched Betting Guide where you can locate the special reports of these excellent providers full reviews).
3) Value Bet by Handicapper
It’s true that most bookmakers are very good at setting odds, estimating the true chance of sporting results and locking in a profit margin. However sports are not statistically quantifiable in the sense that cards or other forms of casino gambling are where simple laws of probability govern the outcome of games. We all know that there is 1/38 chance of landing a number 36 on an American wheel. However, how can we know what the true probability that Real Madrid wins the next Champions league is?
Besides, if we predict the probability then how much can we sure that our estimate is more accurate than the bookmaker’s? As you are aware, the answers to these questions only come with effort & experience, by acquiring a “knowledge" of a sport and its betting market, and a familiarity with the way bookmakers set their odds. For this particular important point, suggest go Sure Opportunities To Beat Bookmakers By Knowing How They Make Money ;
Whether the true chance of a winner is greater than that which the bookmaker has unfairly (in his mind), but potentially mistakenly (in the punter’s mind), estimated it to be. In other words, is the bookmaker’s price greater than that which the punter considers to be the fair price? If it is, then he has found betting value, provided he can estimate prices better than the bookmaker, of course.
The punter has found value and established a betting edge, whether he quantitatively set out to do so or just followed his hunches. Successful betting, then, is really all about understanding and managing probabilities. Know the true chances of a sporting win, and there may be profitable opportunities waiting at the bookmakers.
There are 2 occasions producing Value Bet, which are:
1. bookmakers make mistakes
2. bookmaker odds adjustment
1. does not require explanation, so let me explain 2. Ideally the Sports book would like to have the same amount of money wagered on the two teams playing. When Man U are playing Arsenal and they have one punter betting on the Man U and one punter betting on the Arsenal. They would pay the winner $100 but collect $110 for the loser. This gives them a $10 profit so they really don’t care who wins as long as they have an equal amount bet on each team which is called Balancing The Book.
To accomplish this they assign a line or spread to make the contest equally attractive for both sides. If the public is swayed by sentiment to bet on a certain team say Man U, then the odds makers need to adjust the line to get some action on the other team. Otherwise the betting would be heavily lopsided. The general betting public reacts from the opinions of others. This is why you see so many people “Jumping on the band wagon” of a winning team.
How The Value Can Be Created & Identified
For the sports books the odds is flawed if it does not attract the same amount of action on both sides. However from a smart handicapper’s point of view, the odds line is flawed when it does not compute to his predicted outcome of the game. A weaker team can actually become the favorite if public sentiment is with that team. When this happens the underdog presents a huge overlay for the seasoned handicapper meaning that the odds are in his favor.
For example: Team A should be underdog to Team B however The public loves Team A and are betting on them and the odds moves to make Team A favorite, then Team B becomes an excellent bet. This is the contrarian principle and why many smart handicappers go against the general betting public. The top-notch handicapper has an advantage over the bookmakers.
A winning handicapper formulates his own opinions about the game and ignores most of the public sentiment. A handicapper takes information for numerous sources, assigns weights and values to it. They will make their own power ranking and predict the result without looking at the official odds first, and then compare their predictions to the line to look at discrepancies. Any advantageous discrepancies identified by handicapper are called Value Bet. Such value bets will provide you with steady income, and it’s more so if you play longer because of the positive Expected Value.
The tips created by proven professionals are not risk free. But for the experienced advantage player who understand the above principle, it can often be the easiest and could be the most lucrative. It fully depends on your money management ability and particularly your tolerance against variance. When you take tips 5 times, then you may not be able to win the first 4 times in a row and lose £10 – 20 each time, but the 5th time may bring you over £200.
We talk about Expected Value which is an Average Value and the average will always come through over the long term. You’ll definitely have ups and downs, but as long as you take up only the +EV tips, you will result in profit. You CAN’T BEAT MATH therefore you WILL WIN. The conclusion is once you decide to pursue this category, you have to be patient and keep betting as many as possible. The more you do the better chance you get more profit – you are protected by Math Logic based on Probability Theory. BTW, you need also the best bookmaker that welcome Professional Punters. From this perspective, Pinnacle is indisputably No.1 in the world, find more about this bookmaker in Pinnacle Exclusive Review – True Voice of Insiders ;
3 Advantage Gambling Progressive Developments
As briefly mentined before, we suggest people take progressive move for the above 3 advantage gambling, namely;
- Starting from Matched Betting (Dummies Guide) / Sports Arbitrage (Cheat-sheet for Dummies), because these are basically risk-free and you can lock-in profit from almost every bet.
- However, these 2 methods could be short-lived due to the ever tightening soft bookies’ account restriction & limited profit scale comes from the risk-hedging nature. See the rationale in Know Know Bookies’ Business Model
- Thus, evolving into Value Betting On Proven Tipsters which is more scale with better efficiency for long-term is a natural move as an ultimate betting activity.
This progression tactics is very logical and the safest approach for newbies.
OK, having explained, let’s see how people like sports betting.
How Popular Is Sports Betting?
The below Statista chart shows the Win by category, means market size by gambling type. The sports betting gained the biggest popularity in on-line gambling;
People like sports betting, but the harsh reality is over 95% of the punters loose. However, it’s also true that 5% consistently wins and they can do so because they do only advantage gambling. In other words, as long as you can play advantage gambling, there is a good chance to have steady additional income stream which would be a Safety-net to your life. Just in case you want to know if you can make ends meet with Sports Betting, you will find our in-depth examination in How To Make Living Sports Betting;
The best part of sports betting is that you can start building new income streams in areas you are most interested in while not bothering your time to the extent affecting your full time employment. I assume most of you have at least 1 favorable sports. You must have reasonable knowledge on that sports and if you can produce the extra earnings in your favorable sports categories, it could be fun. Although our focus is not for fun, but obviously having fun is much better & added value to your life and you may spare your time for doing it passionately. Besides, Sports-betting is absolutely no correlations with your other incomes from financial assets, means it’s a good category of diversification.
Always Be Cautious & Smart
Finally, the MIT blackjack team no longer exists according to Mike Aponte, the basis for the Fisher character in the “21" movie. Wired.com reported that “In the movie, Cole Williams (Laurence Fishburne) is a casino security expert who investigates the team. Fishburne’s character was not specifically based on any single real life individual. The 21 movie’s true story reveals that the real MIT Blackjack Team was investigated by Griffin Investigations, a security agency that had been used by casinos worldwide. Andy Anderson, a tall silver-haired man who worked for Griffin, followed the team for four to five years and played a major role in exposing their strategy. As a result, several of the MIT team members were black-booked by Griffin. Their faces landed in the Griffin Book, a dossier of photos distributed to casinos around the world (Breaking Vegas). These players are usually allowed on the casino floor, but are forbidden to go near the blackjack tables. “. The below is a real Griffin Report about Mike Aponte.
Remember, “The nail that sticks out gets hammered down", Be Low Profile To Be Smart.’ In the Sports Betting, what we need to be careful is Bookmaker’s Gubbing, so Go 22 Smart Tactics To Avoid Bookmakers’ Restriction & Solutions After Being Gubbed;
BTW, we GEM deal with 6 Advantage Play as follows;
For Full Index of Our Guides, Go;
List Of Special Reports – All Information are Based On Our Intensive Research & Professional Analysis