Arbitrage Betting – The Ultimate Guide To Extend Matched Betting Profits With Exchanges
Estimated Reading Time: 21 minutes
Arbitrage Betting Receives Little Interest By Matched Bettors, But Isn’t There Any Chance & Way To Make Good Use Of It?
We cover the following topics;
- Arbitrage Betting Introduction
- Small Research Results Among Our Members
- Arbitrage Betting Alternative Method – Betting Exchange
- Earning Projection & Other Info
- 1. Arbitrage Betting Introduction
- 2. Small Research Among Our Members
- 3. Arbitrage Betting Alternative Method – Betting Exchange
- 4. Earning Projection & Other Info
- 5. Conclusion
Arbitrage Betting Introduction
Betting activity is not necessarily gambling. We beat the bookies, casino & bingo by
Arbitrage Betting & Matched Betting
Just in case, you are not familiar with these advantage plays, take a look at;
Originally, sports arbitrage betting a.k.a. Surebet came from economic / financial practice that takes advantage of market inefficiencies namely a price difference between two or more markets without risk. And matched betting uses this arbitrage betting concept to capitalize the benefits of free bets from bookmakers. Rapid increase of matched betting popularity in the UK / Ireland attracted many players in other countries.
Although arbitrage betting is still prevailing in the worldwide, among the matched bettors, arbitrage betting is not considered as a daily tool but something to avoid if possible.
Fear Of Gubbing
Why is that? Very simple, the gubbing scares the crap out of matched bettors. Because arbitrage betting is somehow believed to be the sure formula to get gubbed quickly. Yes, it is fundamentally true. Soft Bookies set the radar to look for those who constantly take value and restrict their accounts. However, we feel matched bettors seem to be excessively nervous about taking up arb opportunities. Is arbitrage betting more dangerous than matched betting from gubbing view point?
Small Research Among Our Members
We conducted a small research among our GEM members over the last 3 months (just after the new football season started). The brief research profiles are;
- 20 UK / Ireland members including us to monitor their bookies account.
- All of them are regular matched bettors and subscribe paid matched betting service thus can use high quality software like the one of Oddsmonkey to find arb opportunities.
- Split the members into 2 groups (10 each) as follows;
- 1) Do only their usual matched betting,
- 2) Do arbitrage betting regularly on top of their usual matched betting.
- For arbitrage betting activities, use Odds Matcher or Dutch Matcher to locate arb opportunites, and asked to take only up to 8% profit opportunities
- Only we, GEM staffs took risky arbs like over 10%
- Asked all the members to place mug bets regularly
- Arb opportunities Found & Used: 97% from Odds Matcher (means between bookmaker & betting exchange) & 3% from Dutch Matcher (among bookies).
- Average % of Gubbed Accounts (can’t express in absolute numbers because each member has different number of accounts): 1) 6.9% 2) 6.2% ===> These % are calculated by # of gubbed account divided by total account # of all members during the research period.
- Average # of Arbitrage Betting per day: 5.7 with average stake of £/€47
- Average Profit from Arbitrage Betting: Around £/€390 per month
- Average % Arb: 4.9% ===> Calculated from the above 3 numbers as £/€390 / 5.7 x £/€47 x 30 days
- My StanJames account seems to be the only case that proves obvious affect from arbitrage betting. I myself took over 15% horse racing arb 3 days consecutively, pls see the details later.
- Average number of mug bet are unknown due to our fault (we had failed to ask the members to record it), but all of them said they regularly bet on the chosen teams in several football leagues (Premier League, Championship, League 1 & 2, La Liga, Serie A & Bundesliga etc), Rugby Union & League, and US major 4 sports as well as place constant ACCA.
Let me emphasize that, from purely research perspective, these numbers are far from reliable. Because it is based on the limited sample # & different bases such as # of bookmakers, age of each bookmaker account, bankroll amount & frequency of arbitrage & matched betting among each member. Therefore, we are not in the position to assure any safety or the actions you will find in this document.
Nevertheless, it still displays an interesting indication & useful insight on the myth that arbitrage betting is an evil. On the contrary, proper regular practice of arbitrage betting may make a role of mug betting, which we could possibly read & speculated from the lower gubbed account % of the group that did arbing. But, remember the bookies can identify the event of which odds exceeds Betfair odds (arbitrage condition). So the consequence of only taking such bets will be obvious & imminent. The proper mug betting is essential.
The key fact is that people earned average additional earnings of £/€390 per month from regular arbitrage betting. BTW, according to RebelBetting, the world No.1 arbitrage software, projected arbitrage profit per month is €1,500. If you’re interested in it, take a look at our RebelBetting Review.
Arbitrage Betting Alternative Method – Betting Exchange
With all the above findings, we quickly draw the possible approach of Sports Arbitrage Betting by using Betting Exchanges, which is a natural extension for the matched bettors.
Firstly, allow me to start up with a few basics, especially for those who know arbitrage betting but are not familiar with matched betting;
For those who are not familiar with betting exchange, take a look at All About Betting Exchanges & Sign-Up Strategies;
If you have started sports arbitrage but not started matched betting, you need to have the betting exchange account such as Betfair. Simply put, we make the best use of Lay Bet in exchange. It is the bet on the “Thing NOT To Happen”. On the other hand, the bet we usually place in the conventional bookmakers is called Back Bet that is “Thing To Happen”.
Benefit Of Lay Bet
In the event with multiple outcomes such as football – Win / Loose / Draw, you need to bet both Loose & Draw for “Not Win” in usual bookmakers. However, in exchanges, you can cover “Not Win” with 1 single bet. Namely, you become a bookmaker position when you lay in exchanges.
Matched Betting Concept
In the matched betting method, we take the approach to find the narrowest odds gap on the same event & market between the bookmaker & betting exchange. We use the software called Odds Matcher, which list the best opportunities. See the below example showing the William Hill (bookmaker) case;
The top event shows English League 2 football match of Accrington vs Newport County. The calculator indicates if you bet £100 to back Newport County (means Newport County win) at William Hill and Lay £101.98 Newport County (means Newport County NOT win, namely lose or draw) you will lose £0.06 regardless of the outcome.
Yes, it incurs loss. Bear it in mind, higher lay odds than back odds like the above case creates profit. But we have to take Betting Exchange Commission (SMarket is 2%) into account, thus it results in marginal loss. In any case, matched betting uses bookmaker’s offer like free bet. Means the £100 you bet at William Hill is assumed as the free bet, thus you will profit from the free bet value minus loss. Practically, it is not such simple but theoretically it works like that. The point here is how this process applies to Sports Arbitrage.
How To Arbitrage Between Bookmaker & Betting Exchange
The Odds Matcher often captures the profit opportunities rather than loss opportunity, such as;
The % in the red box shows 100+ %, means Lay Bet Odds is Better Enough than Back Bet Odds after taking the exchange commission into account. This is the condition of sufficient under-round which creates profitable arbitrage opportunity. The calculation shows;
It says if you place £100 back bet on Reivers Lodge (Horse Racing at Ayr) in William Hill while laying £107.45 on the same horse in Betfair (betting exchange), you will lock-in £5.30 net profit no matter Reivers Lodge wins or loses. This is exactly the sports arbitrage profit.
As kept saying, bookies are very keen to find price takers and will impose restriction on the account that keeps taking high values. This is what matched bettors fear and consider arbitrage betting is a real evil, which our research shows Not Necessarily.
However, the fact still remains that bookies will limit your account of whoever keeps taking value. Allow me to remind you that it’s a well known fact that bookies traders use software to detect the bets of which odds is higher than exchange especially Betfair. Means if you are the one who place only such bets, it’s really the matter of time to get limited. So it’s paramount important to keep taking precautionary actions.
If you use high quality Odds Matcher typically Oddsmonkey always capture arbing opportunities as shown in the screenshot. However, as said repeatedly, any opportunities with over 10% profit (in the oddsmatcher, the rating % of 110% <) could be a palpable error. The bookies may cancel the bet. If you lay the long odds and the back wins, your loss will become huge.
Let’s quickly review the opportunities In the table;
- The top rating event is StanJames horse racing of 15.22% profit. StanJames may not cancel the bet but if you take this sort of value a few times, they will immediately restrict your account. I’m a living example in this research. I took around 15% arb 3 days consecutively, then in the following day I receive the below e-mail. It suddenly happened after 2-years calm happy matched betting life in this account. As I cautioned in 30 World Betting Site List, don’t take too much value in racing specifically from StanJames. It was not only gubbing / restriction but jumped into Closing;
Same Odds Among Multiple Bookies
- 2nd rating event is 15.2% profit of PSG vs Celtic Champions League found in 4 bookmakers including Ladbrokes. Generally speaking, when multiple bookies show the same odds, it may not be an error. But, there are many a.k.a. clone sites or the syndicates where the same source of odds service are used. Therefore, the same odds among multiple bookmakers only doesn’t prove “Not a Palp”. Then let’s compare with more bookies by checking the oddscheker. It shows Ladbrokes’ outstanding odds. They may not cancel but obviously the one you’d better stay away, because in case they cancel your loss could be huge given such long odds. Even not cancel, Lad may put your account into watch list;
- Bottom-line, from all angles, it’s better to avoid any opportunities with over 10% profit. Don’t try to be greedy. If you take only up to 8% as shown by the blue arrow in the table, you may be safe although there are no guarantee.
I can’t emphasize more that our research can’t ensure anything. If you decide to take this approach, strongly suggest you go through our “Essential Guide To Avoid Gubbing & Keep Beating The Bookies” which you will see it later. Importantly, place mug bet as many as possible. Always try to get into the minds of casual (mug) punters and act as you can imagine. For example, as our sample members (in fact, all of them) do, chose 1 – 2 team (s) in each major football league, say Chelsea, and bet on Chelsea whenever they play. You do it across several sports category. Isn’t it a sort of betting pattern that recreational punters do? No guarantee, but acting like that regularly may disguise your true professional color, thus could prolong your account life, which is your matched betting lifeblood.
Earning Projection & Other Info
As said, high quality oddsmatcher constantly capture the arb opportunities.
Considering our research results, the followings are possible earning scenario;
- Bet stake of £/€40 – 60 with average 5% arb profit x 5 – 10 bets / day
- Monthly Profit would be the range of £/€300 – 900
- If you cover many bookies say over 30, you may be able to arb efficiently. Besides you may not have to keep arbing in the same bookie which could trigger bookie’s unnecessary attention.
I also shouldn’t forget to mention this point. Given the nature of arbitrage betting, the opportunity disappears extremely quickly. Therefore very high quality odds matcher is required as the standard arbing (such as the one of RebelBetting – see our full review if you’re interested).
The free oddsmatcher like I use as an example in the various matched betting instructions can’t cope with it because their data is around 20 minutes late. It’s impossible to capture the arb opportunity that change in minutes or even seconds. The best one in the industry is Oddsmonkey that covers over 130 bookies in the world. It’s a full matched betting package service, therefore people who can’t make matched betting think it’s a waste. But considering the possible earnings predicted above, it’s could be worth for the 2nd thought. See our full review on Oddsmonkey;
GEM Strategy Paper
Our name GEM – Global Extra Money implies, we have a vision to enable ordinary people from All Over The World to earn extra income consistently. With that ambition, we have issued How To Make Money From Offshore Sports Betting With 3 Advantage PlaysYou will find very comprehensive specific instruction on how to get sure profit from matched betting, sports arbitrage & value bet on proven tipsters anywhere in the world, so strongly suggest take a look at it.
Although this paper covers all what you need, I’ll excerpts a bit related to the topics here as follows;
Standard Arbitrage Betting
For those who are interested in standard arbitrage betting, means among conventional bookmakers, go to specific instruction: Sports Arbitrage – Cheatsheet For Dummies To Become A Seasoned Arber Overnight.
As briefly said in the last section, RebelBetting is the world No.1 arbitrage betting software used by over 100,000 people all over the world. So as long as you reside in the countries where on-line gambling is not banned, you can start it. But in order to earn decent income, means large enough to cover the subscription cost of the soft ware, you need enough Soft & Sharp Bookies. Over 95% of the on-line bookmakers are soft bookies, thus it’s not difficult for majority of the players to access them. Besides, RebelBetting capture arb opportunities of both back & lay in the bet exchanges, so if you have access to the exchange, you can already construct the arbing. The hard part is Sharp Bookies of which business are designed for Professional Punters, namely;
- Highly Competitive Odds
- High Stake Limit
- No Account Restriction
The best choice is Pinnacle that officially promotes Arbitrage Betting in their site. So, if you reside in the countries where Pinnacle accept, it’s a Must sharp bookie. Besides, Pinnacle can be an alternative of Bet Exchange, see Pinnacle Arbitrage – Alternative to Laying on Exchanges;
In case, you can’t access to Pinnacle, consider bet broker that place bet not only Pinnacle but also a few other sharp Asian bookies such as SBObets on behalf of you. In fact, the bet brokers also allow you to access a few bet exchanges. But before you finally decide to use the brokers, read Honest Opinion About Bet Broker & How To Use Them Safely & Smartly;
Then, except few countries like USA, you are likely to make decent arbitrage betting.
Betfair Exchange Alternatives
Besides, the above bet brokers provide good accessibility & full capacity usage especially for Matchbook & Betdaq but have certain limitation to Betfair access. Betfair is the world leading betting exchange providing the largest market coverage & highest liquidity. Although Betfair restrict many countries, they started actively exploring missing profit opportunities in those restricted countries by providing White Label solution. Means people can enjoy exactly identical Betfair platform under re-branded site. It’s typically described as “Powered By Betfair” in the site where Betfair white label approach is used. we have separately issued the report of Befair Alternatives – Select The Best Option To Suit Your Unique Needs, where you will find Betfair White Labels providing effectively Betfair Identical platform. I’m sure this will surely extend your advantage options.
Arbitrage Betting With Betting Exchanges
Let’s get back to the key subject of this document. As having explained, for those who can access to the betting exchange you can do arbitrage immediately. Even for those who can’t legally access to the betting exchange, there are many ways to access. Therefore, in case you haven’t done matched betting, strongly suggest you seriously consider it.
So, this document shares how you could make arbitrage betting with bet exchange smartly to earn decent extra income in many countries. If you are a matched bettor you can extend your profit with minimum effort.
Don’t Forget Mug Betting
I know you’re fed up with my caution, but again allow me to reiterate that KFS (Key Factor of Success) of this approach is definitely precautionary actions. The bookies can identify the sports events of which odds are higher than Betfair (exactly the arbing condition). And if you are labelled as the punter who takes only such bets, you will be restricted immediately. So, never forget to make proper mug betting. We have actually prepared the following 2 guides;
When it comes to mug bet, see the Very Specific & Comprehensive Mug Betting Instruction in the “Essential Guide To Avoid Gubbing & Keep Beating The Bookies”. If your account is gubbed despite all the efforts (yes, soft bookies will do it to all matched betting accounts anyway), no worries, “21 Methods To Make Money From Restricted Betting Accounts” will allow you to keep making extra money from gubbed accounts for good.
If you have any inquiry or need any help from us, please contact us anytime (don’t worry, we will not charge you any fee, everything is free here).