Beat The Bookies By Knowing Secret Of Odds

Can you beat the bookies?

 

You can beat the bookies by knowing the sportsbook’s secrets of odds and implementing three advantage plays based on mathematical logic.

If you keep betting on sports or horse racing based on your hunch, you must have very little chance to beat the bookies long-term.

We bet but we never gamble, which means we don’t count on luck or chance at all. Instead, we use Advantage Plays which gives us the mathematical edge over the bookmakers by identifying Value expressed in EV (Expected Value).

Positive EV will bring you profit in the long term without fail. That’s how we beat the bookies.

(BTW, we’re aware that many punters seek crypto sportsbooks for better privacy, if you are one of them, go to the List of 28 Best Bitcoin Sports Betting Bookmakers).

 

Know Your Enemy – Essence On Beating The Bookies

 

Firstly, you should know how your enemy makes money as the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu said in his famous military treatise Art of War.

Remember, under the Fixed Odds system, you face a Zero-Sum game, which means if you win, bookies lose, and vice versa. Therefore the bookmaker is your Enemy.  Allow me to quote his saying;

If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle

So, let me emphasize the importance of knowing not only your enemy but also yourself, which means which edge you have over the bookies is critical.

Know Bookmaker – 2 Criteria

 

 

 

1. How Bookmakers Drive Revenue Growth (Soft Bookies & Sharp Bookies)

 

Broadly speaking, there are two different approaches as follows;

 

Promotion-Driven Model – Employed by “Soft Bookies”

 

The majority of online bookmakers adopt this model. They attract new customers and develop the loyalty of existing customers using heavy sign-up & reload bonuses. Needless to say, it will incur heavy marketing costs.

Generally speaking, their odds are not competitive but slow to adjust to the rapid change in the market. This creates huge market inefficiencies in contrast with Sharp Bookies as explained next.

They try to mitigate these issues with complicated and restrictive terms & conditions. These activities end up eliminating the sharp punters via restricting their accounts often called “Gubbing” in the matched betting category.

You may see examples of this type of bookmaker in the List of 35 World Worst Betting Sites That Quickly Restrict Your Account.

 

Reduced Margin Pricing Model –  Employed by “Sharp Bookies”

 

There are a few bookmakers that have taken a completely different approach from the above promotion model. It can be described as the Reduced Margin Pricing model or Sharp Bookmakers.

Pinnacle is the forerunner of this model and for a full list, go to List of Sharp Sportsbooks for Professional Punters where we suggest the best option (it’s actually not a sportsbook but a bet broker that includes Pinnacle white-label & Betfair white-label, you must see it). 

What Pinnacle has done is that they built what they might spend on bonus incentives directly into their odds. And they reduced their own margin (so-called over-round that will be explained in detail later) or reduced juice, see Best 7 Reduced Juice Sportsbooks.

They aim to drive profit from lower margins but a far higher turnover.

Under this model, the sharp punters/price traders are not their threats but good helpers to shape their odds/lines. Therefore they officially declare Welcome Professional without a single account restriction. For the detailed Pinnacle Business Model, see Pinnacle Sports Review.

Soft & Sharp Bookmakers

Let me quickly summarize the characteristics of Soft & Sharp bookies as;

How should we read this? As said before, odds are an implied probability, to be specific;

Implied probability is a conversion of odds into a percentage - whilst taking into account the bookmakers edge - and eliminates the bookmakers edge to express the true odds of an event occurring.

The implied probability of an event will always add up to over 100% under normal circumstances.

Odds Conversion Formula Into Probability

Let's examine. We use the below simple formula to convert the odds into probability;

Probability Of Occurrence (%) = 1/decimal odds x 100

Thus;

Since there are no outcomes other than the above 3 options, the sum of 3 probabilities should be 100%.

If it is 100%, it's called True Odds (not necessarily the real chance of happening but at least in the formula). So, let's add up the likelihood of each outcome as 55.6% + 28.6% + 22.2% = 106.4%, well not 100%. The difference of 6.4% is Over-round and it's the profit of Bet365. Are you with me?

They reduce the odds (means payout) to create the overround.

Assuming all 6.4% over-round is generated from Barcelona's true probability, in order to work out the true odds of Barcelona winning, Bet365's 55.6% probability is to be reduced by 6.4%. Thus the true probability becomes 49.2%. Then the true odds are calculated as 1/49.2% = 2.03 So, 2.03 is the true odds rather than 1.8. Bet365 reduced the payout by over 20% when Barcelona wins.

Is it clear? This over-round ensures that the true odds are replaced by the bookies’ actual odds (100% + the over-round) so that any winners are paid out at a reduced rate than the actual probability suggests.

Use Pinnacle Margin Calculator for your convenience;

Built-In Profit

Simply put, if Bet365 received stakes from punters in the same proportion as his book, they would bring in 106.4 units. But only ever have to pay out a maximum of 100 units, meaning that they have made themselves a profit of 6.4 units.

This is how bookmaker makes money with built-in over-round.

BTW, the above Bet365 is my fictional odds for the explanation. In the real world, Bet365 is a typical soft bookie and provides less competitive odds though, they offer tasty promotional activities. You can profit thousands of €/£/$ every month with 100% risk-free with various techniques. If you're interested read 5 Proven Methods To Lock-In Massive Profits from Bet365 Promotion.

 

Summary of Profit Model & Risk Management

 

Despite the popular misconception that bookies make a lot of effort to speculate the outcome of the game accurately to win over bettors, they basically don't care about the final outcome of the event. Because;

• They use Over-round to make money on their wagers regardless of the outcome.
• They focus on Balancing The Bookto see the same amount of money (risk) on both sides of a betting outcome.

Moving Odds

BTW, you may wonder how they balance their book.

They adjust their odds for an event over time. If a big weight of money comes in on a player, team or horse, the bookmaker is obliged to shorten the odds and control their liabilities.

In order to balance the amounts of bets on both sides and maintain interest in the event, the bookies might then push up the odds on the opposing player or team to attract equal action on each side of an event.

That’s why odds are not static but fluctuate so much as a result of bookies’ constant effort to balance their books to ensure they keep an overround present.

In the above example, if Barcelona's win is heavily backed, you will see the odds drop to 1.65 (60.6%) whilst the odds on Real Madrid's win are pushed out to 5.5 (18.2%) to attract more money in order to balance the books. Under this scenario, the over-round would have increased to 7.4% (60.6% + 28.6% + 18.2%).

The Closer To The Event, The More Odds Move

You may observe that the closer the game start, the more ‘fluid’ the odds become.

Because salient information such as team news becomes public knowledge, this then has a knock-on effect with bettors’ opinions being confirmed or changed on the outcome of the match in question.

Thus, the odds tend to change more as the start of the match gets nearer and nearer, this is all the tactics of the bookies.

So, the adjusting odds are their marketing & financial tactics to balance out the book to secure over round.

Another technique they use is a point spread. Some may believe that these odds creators are attempting to be prognosticators of sporting events. However, the reality is that a point spread is set to attract action (bets) on both sides of the game, allowing the house to collect its over-round, simple as that.

Basically Similar Method

Even after such adjustment, there is usually still a little unbalanced, which should be an acceptable level of risk and the only gamble bookmakers take.

Surely, each sport is different, but fundamentally bookmaking methods are always the same. And bookmakers make money with these methods, regardless of the sport or other type of betting event.

Simply, calculate the statistical chances of every game and set the odds by taking into account the probabilities and public opinion, and collect maximum money by balancing the book to maximize the profit.

 

 

How To Beat The Bookies: 3 Sports Advantage Plays

 

Now you know the enemy.

Then we can identify the proper opportunities where we apply our Sports Betting 3 Tactics to beat the bookies.

Those are Risk-Free Matched Betting, Arbitrage Trading a.k.a. Surebet & Value Betting on Software / Tipsters / System.

In case, you have not been familiar with these tactics, please take a look at 3 Advantage Gambling in Sports Betting – Guide For Ordinary People To Beat Bookies which provides you with comprehensive logic behind these 3 Methods.

Let's see how our specific tactics fit in the bookies' business model & how to beat the bookies nicely;

 

1. Reduced Margin Pricing Model

 

Let me start with the Reduced Margin Pricing Model. This is the haven for professional punters, you can conduct Sports Arbitrage freely and keep winning with True Value Bets using Proven Software / Top Notch Tipsters / World Top System.

However, given the absence of promotional offers, it is not for matched betting.

True Odds

BTW, you may wonder how you find the True Odds. Yes, we can see bookies' actual odds on their site but where can we find the true odds?

The easiest way to see a truer indicator of how much a bet is worth, is you visit Betting Exchanges.

On a betting exchange, users bet against users, called peer to peer system. Therefore the market is driven by supply and demand only and you usually see better odds compared to conventional bookmakers, which would reflect true odds in a better way.

Betting Exchanges

Importantly, given the nature of their business model, they don't care about the winners. So you never worry about being gubbed. You can check the odds in major exchanges such as;

Bear in mind that you need to pay a 2% - 5% commission on winning bets. So if you bet there you need to discount it, yet you could be better off considering the fact that the average over-round set by the bookies is well over 6%.

Alternatively, you can use Pinnacle, see Pinnacle Arbitrage – Alternative to Laying on Betting Exchanges. 

Pinnacle says Traditional bookmakers with higher margins (105% - 112%) receive far less volume, and therefore their prices are not efficient measures of the true market price. To know the “fair” market price on a game, simply check Pinnacle’s odds 1 hour before the start of the event go Pinnacle's Article Market movement in betting Understanding the significance of market movement; 

Importantly, Pinnacle shapes their odds using the early bets which are the bets of Expert/ Professional punters or the bets based on proven tipsters (handicappers) / systems as explained a few times later.

If your country is not accepted by Pinnacle, use Bet Broker.

How Proven Software / Tipsters / System Find Value To Beat The Bookies?

The bookmakers keep Balancing their books. This means the line/odds is flawed if it does not attract the same amount of action on both sides.

However, from a smart tipster’s point of view, the line/odds are flawed when it does not compute to his predicted outcome of the game. A weaker team can actually become the favourite if public sentiment is with that team.

When this happens the underdog presents a huge overlay for the seasoned tipster meaning that the odds are in his favour.

Contrarian Principle

Team A should be a 3-point underdog to Team B. However The public loves Team A and is betting on them and the line moves to make Team A a one-point favourite. Then Team B becomes an excellent bet.

This is the contrarian principle and why many proven software / smart tipsters (handicappers) / top system goes against the general betting public.

Let me quote from the above Pinnacle Full Review;

Ability To Locate True Value

The top-notch software/tipsters (handicappers) / system develops an advantage over the bookmakers not only by their specialized expertise in a particular sports category but also by capturing the best value in the fluctuating odds in this way.

You may be able to find value bet by comparing the exchange's odds & bookmakers' odds though, you need high skill, a huge database and a lot of commitment on time & effort.

It is not usually paid off in comparison with using software / top tipsters/systems.

EV - Expected Value

So, let me put this Value into numbers a.k.an EV - Expected Value.

We GEM always use this EV to assess available opportunities. EV is the Average amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over.

For Sports Betting, we use the following formula (exactly the same as the Pinnacle article explains);

EV = (Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)

Let's use the previous Barcelona vs Real Madrid example. Assuming we bet £10 on Real Madrid, then;

So, it is a Negative EV. This means you will lose an average of £0.65 for every £10 bet in this particular bet.

Remember, we are talking about average, you may keep losing 5 consecutive bets with the same bet but win 3 times in a row to make up the loss, simply caused by Variance.

However if you bet more & more say 1,000 bets, you will most likely lose 1,000 x £0.65 = £650

Remember Sports Betting Is Different From Casino

The good news is that, unlike casino games where pure mathematics governs, sports betting relies on skill & the number is affected by subjective factors as well.

So it's not necessarily you will surely lose if you don't have better skills to know the real true odds than bookmakers. The key point here is if you can find the bet with a Positive EV, then it's almost certain that you will win average in the long term.

This is called a Value Bet. Bookies have an edge over punters in the form of Over-round. But the proven tipsters / provensystem/value bet finder will identify a True Value Bet which gives you the edge over the bookmakers in the form of UNDER-ROUND. It is a Positive EV.

Proven Tipsters & Systems generate tips in the SELECTED BETS where they have a SKILL edge over the bookmakers, which will actually become the Sharps' bets and these bets will shape Sharp bookmakers' (such as Pinnacle's) & Betting Exchanges' odds.

And Value bet finders locate the value bets based on the odds differences between soft bookies and sharp bookies including betting exchanges.  

So, as long as you keep betting on the bets with Positive EV suggested by the proven tipsters, it's almost impossible for you not to win in the long term.

Therefore bookmakers consider you a threat and restrict you. Having said that, you need to choose the bookmakers that suit professionals, see the List of 20 World Best Online Bookies That Don’t Limit Winners.

Note;

Not all the bookmakers listed in the above document use the Reduced Margin Pricing model but offer attractive promotions. So it's a good opportunity to make matched betting with those bookies.

BTW, many people imagine matched betting is for only UK & Ireland, wrong, check 

 

2. Promotion Driven Bookmakers

 

Future Prospect

As long as I see from the below steady revenue revolution of the UK sports betting industry where promotion-driven giant bookies dominate, I can't see any significant reason that these bookies will stop bonuses and change their current business model at this stage;

Therefore, we can keep extracting cash from their lucrative offers via Matched Betting. For those who would like to see the exact instructions on each method, you may go to Matched Betting Guide where you see the full list of specific instructions on various offers.

BTW, given the promotion-driven business model, UK bookies are very notorious for quick account restrictions. However, we have never heard about any such restriction about most of the sportsbooks we list on World Best Offshore Betting Sites Offers, despite the fact that some of them provide you with lucrative bonuses & promotions, you may want to explore such juicy opportunities. 

Sportsbook Offer Value Assessment in EV

When it comes to the bookies' promotions, I would say nearly 100% of Welcome offers are +EV. The majority of Reload offers also indicate +EV, which even experienced matched bettors are not really aware of.

Let me quickly share how you should assess the value of a few key offers;

Welcome Offers

The popular type of "Bet £/€10 and Get £/€30 Free Bet" is often 100% Risk-Free and basically no need to calculate EV.

Only the type that needs to be assessed is the one requiring WR (Wager Requirement). It is the rollover you have to make before you can withdraw. Typically, "100% Deposit Bonus up to £/€200" with the 3x WR. This means if you deposit £/€200 and get a £/€200 bonus then you need to stake £/€400 (deposit + bonus) x 3 = £/€1,200 before the bonus + winnings can be withdraw-able.

You need a solid rollover strategy, like the following EV formula to assess:

EV = Bonus amount - (Required WR amount x Average Loss of Qualifying Bet)

When you do Matched Betting, which means backing at the bookmaker & laying at the exchange, you will create marginal loss due to the odds difference between the bookie & exchange and the exchange's commission.

We can usually manage the loss by up to 5%. Then, in the above example, the EV = £/€200 - (£/€1,200 x 5%) = £/€140, so a Positive EV thus should go for it.

However, if the bookmaker requires 12x WR, EV = £/€200 - (£/€4,800 x 5%) = - £/€40, Negative EV. There's no variance involved because the outcome is guaranteed.

Although you could still get lucky and lose your first couple of bets and not have to bother with the wagering, which would make this offer still worth trying.

Yes, you can understand the break-even condition is 10x WR in this case. Generally, you may decide not to go for the offer that requires over 10x WR.

Don't worry, unlike Casino offers where 20X or 30X is common, in the sportsbook over 10x WR hardly exists. In fact, I myself have never seen it, thus almost all welcome offers are positive EV means completely risk-free.

Reload Offers

There are many types of offers because bookies strive to create unique offers to attract existing players to boost betting.

The most common type is "Refund You Lose Bet IF xxx Happens", I'll share 2 types of offers to show how we assess & tackle the offers.

Money-Back if Draw This is a typical Football reload offer.

Say, Chelsea vs Manchester Utd, if your bet on the correct score market loses and if the matches finish draw, you will get money back up to £50.

Simply you back & lay any correct score market and hope the draw happens. Remember, never ever bet on Draw Score such as 0-0, 1-1 to ensure when the draw happens (we call it "Trigger / IF Conditions") we lose the bet since the refund comes only when we lose.

If you can manage no loss in qualifying bet which you can do in the market like 1x2 match results, then it's risk-free. However, usually, it's quite difficult to find close back & lay odds in the correct score market, and if you bet £50 (the maximum refund), you may lose over 10% like £5. And there is no guarantee of the match finishes in a draw.

So, how do we assess if it has value? You can use our standard formula;

EV = (Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet) 

• Probability of Winning - this is the probability of a Draw, as explained before you can go to Exchange to check the true odds, so assuming the draw odds in Betfair is 3.0, the probability is 1/3 = 33.3%
• Amount Won per Bet - this is the refund of £50, but you get it as a free bet that is approximately 80% value compared with cash (because we may lose 20% when we matched betting free bet), thus £40
• Probability of Losing - this is the probability of Not Draw, so 100% - 33.3% = 66.7% (I simplified this case by not taking the over-round into account)
• Amount Lost per Bet - we assumed 10% of the stake which is £5

Then, EV= (33.3% x £50) - (66.7% x £5) = £16.65 - £3.33 = £13.32 So this is the average expected return if you keep betting the same bet, and obviously worth pursuing.

The easiest way to work this out is, when you receive the offer, see the IF Trigger (in this case Draw) and go to Exchange to check Lay Odds of Trigger. And calculate the refund Amount divided by lay odds, in this case, £40 / 3 = £13.33 which gives you a similar result to the above formula, just an instant check to confirm the value.

Apart from this low risk & not guaranteed profit approach, we also have a method to Lock-In Profit method although the expected return will be reduced. If you're interested in it How To Lock-In Profit on Trigger Bet with Extra Lay Spreadsheet.

Back A Winner Get Free Bet is Just another example.

This is also a popular offer along with the "Refund If Your Horse Finishes 2nd" in the Horse Racing offer. The basic approach is the same, back & lay the horse you select by hoping your horse wins or finishes 2nd.

Many people wonder "I may keep losing because my horse never hit the refund trigger", understood, but we should evaluate it in a numerical manner, rather than judging with gut feeling & fear.

This time, let me assess the value in a bit different way. Assuming the offer is that you will get up to £50 Free Bet if your horse wins, and you bet on the horse at the odds of 4.0 (3/1) and lose 10% means £5 for every bet. So, 4.0 odds represent a 25% probability of occurrence. This means your horse will, on average, win one out of every 4 races at that odds.

So, you'll lose £5 per qualifying bet four times before hitting a winner, a total loss will be £20. Then, you get a free bet valued at £40 in cash. Your total average profit is £40 - £20 = £20 Since this is for 5 bets total average, the average profit per bet is £20 / 5 bets = £4

Obviously, you are not going to literally make £4 with every bet, but over many dozens and hundreds of bets you repeatedly do, then the average will be surely materialized.

You can't beat math but you can beat the bookies. You will receive these refund offers almost every day. For the weekend you can place 10 such bets easily and it takes less than 1 hour once you get used to doing it. Then £4 x 10 races = £40 hourly income is not bad.

That's the power of advantage play based on mathematical rationale and the sure opportunity you can exploit in the Promotion Driven Bookmakers.

BTW, for the above Back A Winner offer, there is a Lock-In Profit method. See my post of How To Lock-In Profit on Back A Winner Offer by Overlay Betting.

For those who want to take the Lock-In Profit method for the said 2nd Place Refund, although all the case doesn't apply, use the 2nd Place Refund Horse Betting Calculator For A Guaranteed Profit.

 

Sports Arbitrage & Value Bet By Proven Tipsters

 

Progression Tactics

Although I said there seems to be no strong reason that soft bookies will change the promotion drive model drastically, the rapid popularity of matched betting looks changing the climate gradually.

Firstly, they accelerate the speed of gubbing, then change the promotion into something that can't construct matched betting. This means matched betting could be more short-lived down the road.

Besides, due to the nature of risk-hedging, matched betting is all about scalping small profits, which means it's not efficient.

Therefore, we strongly suggest all the matched bettors (& arbers as well) start Value Betting On Proven Tipsters, which will take your betting activities to the next level. Because you can expect a Larger Scale with Much Better Efficiency For Long-Term.

See the key success factor which is How To Locate Best Tipsters.

Variance & Risk Tolerance

Value Betting on Top Rated Tipsters comes with variance, so it could lose 5 times consecutively losing £10 - £20 per bet but you will win £200 in the 6th bet. Some are not tolerant during the 5 losing streaks.

It is determined by Individual Character expressed in Emotional Toughness I explained in How To Make A Living Sports Betting – Full Assessment of 3 Methods By Numbers.

Therefore, if you think you are not tolerant of such a losing streak, you must carefully approach this method.

Precautionary Actions & Contingency Plans

Lastly, my favourite Sun Tzu quote is “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”  As explained, if the bookmakers find you as a smart punter, they will fight back by restricting your account. In order to avoid it, you must stay low profile to avoid being caught by the bookmaker's radar as best as you can.

However, in reality, if you keep taking too much value, it's just a matter of time before most of the soft bookies limit your account.  So, we have prepared the following 2 guides - One is Before Restriction, The Other One is After Restriction;

I hope this electronic guide will be valuable as the original Art Of War written on the bamboo plates as you see in the above image and help you build an extra income stream.

BTW, you may wonder if our advantage play method can be used in your country. As our Global Extra Money (GEM) name implies, we would like all visitors from anywhere in the world to enjoy our methods, thus we have issued:

Actually, cryptocurrency/bitcoin betting has become a major stream, especially for international players because it can circumvent some geographical restrictions, so suggest you also go through;

 

Good Luck!!

 

Joshua Walker (bio)

Editor - Global Extra Money (GEM)

 

One of our policies is Betting On Luck Is For Losers, Stop Gambling But Bet on Only +EV To Win Reliably. It is effectively our way to promote Responsible Gambling under the regulation, and we strongly support GamCare & GamStop being explained in about us.

 

BTW, our 6 Advantage Plays are as follows;