Step by Step Instruction on Bet365 In-Play Free Bet Guaranteed Profit

What Is Bet365 In-Play Offer Guaranteed Profit?

Bet365 offers periodically Football In-Play Bet, which is one of the Best Available Football promotions. They never call it Bet365 In-Play Offer Guaranteed Profit, but since we can lock-in profit, we call so.

The offer is “Place a pre-match bet on xxx vs xxx and Bet365 will give you a risk-free in-play bet to the same stake (up to a maximum of £50.00)”

You will most likely to extract £35+ cash from the offer every time. I will show you how by using the example of: Bayern Munich vs Arsenal on 15 February 2017 of which detail is described in Bet365 In-Play Offer T&C;

2 Methods

Let’s clarify what the offer requires;

• Firstly we need to place a £50 Pre-match bet.
• Then, we have to place another £50 In-play bet (our own money) which is a Risk-Free bet. It means if you lose you get a refund. Note that Bet365 will refund you not in the free bet but in cash. So you can immediately withdraw, which gives you added value. Since most of the bookies refund in the free bet of which value is approximately 80% compared with cash.

We can construct 2 different methods to tackle this offer, which are standard Matched Betting and Dutching. I will show you both process though since matched betting is pretty straight forward I’ll elaborate more on the Dutching method.

As said, 1st we have to place £50 PRE-MATCH then 2nd another £50 IN-PLAY. So we have to decide which market we should bet for the 1st & 2nd respectively. Therefore, let me start up with Pre-Match Bet, and move into In-Play Bet where I add Dutching method on top of the standard matched approach method.

There is an optional tactic to start Dutching from Pre-Match Bet, see “Dutching Alternative Application” in Wrap Up with A Few Tips Section.

Pre-Match Bet

Let’s examine which market is the best. For this qualifying bet, the basic tactics are to chose Shorter & Tighter (between Bet365 & Exchange) odds to minimize the qualifying loss. When I quickly check the odds, Bayern Munich Win is the shortest & closest odds between 1.50 at Bet365 & 1.55 at SMarket (Exchange) as follows;

Bet365 odds;

SMarket Lay Odds;

, so we use Tricky Bet free matched betting calculator to get Lay Stake & Qualifying loss. The calculation shows;

So, we confirm we will lose £1.96 loss regardless of the outcome in the qualifying bet stage.

Now, let’s move to the 2nd Bet where we have the separate approach of Standard Matched Betting & Dutching.

Standard Matched Betting

Let’s quickly examine how much we can expect from the Standard Matched Betting Approach.

As seen, we produce a £1.96 loss irrespective of the outcome. Then, we also do matched betting on the In-Play £50 bet. The half time is the period the odds become stable, so we usually suggest do at half time.

Since this is the Risk-Free Bet, we calculate based on SNR (Stake Not Returned). In case you’re not familiar with how to extract Risk Free Bet, see Risk Free Bet (Refund to Lose Bet) Lock-In Profit Instruction Special Report by GEM.

It’s impossible to predict the in-play odds, I use the fictional odds just for the sake of explanation of how you process this matched betting. Given the Risk-Free Tactics, Long & Tight Odds Selection (same as Free Bet approach) is required.

The appropriate market you can find a good choice for these requirements is the Correct Score. Assuming we find 10.0 of back odds &  12.5 of lay odds, the predicted profit will be;

So, we will get an average of £39.28 no matter what the final match results would be.

In summary, £1.96 loss at qualifying pre-match bet and £39.28 profit at in-play risk-free bet will give us £37.32 profit.

Dutching

Just in case, you are not familiar with dutching, go  How To Bet Dutching That Will Create Awesome Extra Income Special Report by GEM.

Regarding Dutching, simply put, we don’t lay in exchange but cover all the 3 outcomes (1 x 2) by backing in different bookmakers. Then, how should we? Firstly we chose the outcome (1 Bayern wins or x Draw or 2 Arsenal wins) we back in-play in Bet365. You can choose whichever you want.

Looking at Oddschecker, Draw odds offered by Bet365 is relatively high side, although there is no guarantee it will be the same condition during In-Play, let’s assume we take Draw.

Click  To Enlarge

We have to determine the bookmaker for the other 2 bets.

Looking at the above oddschecker, the highest bids are

• For Bayern, 1.53 of Betway
• For Arsenal, Betfair Sports provides the best odds of 7.5.

So, at this stage, it’s important to check if these odds are still available.

Bet365, Yes it is;

Betway, Yes it is;

Betfair, Yes it is;

Work Out Each Stake

So, let’s work out how much stake we need to back Bayern & Arsenal respectively. Firstly, we need to see how much return we receive from the draw bet at Bet365, then see how much do we need from Bayern Win & Arsenal Win by taking the refund & pre-match bet at Bet365 into account.

Simply divide £180 by 1.53 odds for Bayern, which is £117.64, and divide £180 by 7.5, which is £24. By the way, I strongly suggest you don’t bet such an amount of £117.64. It confesses to the bookies that you are doing some sort of arbing, which means you are increasing the chance of being gubbed.

Therefore, make them nice round numbers into £120 & if possible £25. So, our total stakes will be £50 (Bet365) + £120 (Betway) + £25 (Betfair Sports) = £195

Validate

Let’s see how much we can make for each outcome;

 Wrap Up

How about it? You will get £33.04 – £40.54 profit (the reason Arsenal win’s case achieves the biggest profit is round up the stake amount from £24 to £25 in Betfair Sports).

In both cases, the risk is fluctuating in-play odds.

A Few Tips;

Dutching Alternative Application

Firstly, I used matched betting for the Pre-Match £50 bet even for Dutching Method just for the sake of explanation by separating the Pre-Match bet & In-Play bet part. However, obviously, you can use Bet365 £50 Pre-Match stake as a part of Dutching.

We can recalculate the required stake in the same way. For Bayern, £230 – £50 (Refund) – £75 (Bet365 £50 x 1.5 odds) = £105 This is the additional return required from Betway. Therefore, £105 / 1.53 = £68.62 rounding up to £70. All the other parts are exactly the same.

So, our total stakes will be £50 (Bet365 Pre-Match)+ £50 (Bet365 In-Play) + £70 (Betway) + £25 (Betfair Sports) = £195 Then, the predicted profit would have been;

It improved profitability by saving the qualifying loss. However, it actually depends on the odds, the timing you place bet & other bookies’ promotion offers. In fact, Barcelona vs Man City match in Oct ’16 Bet365 In-Play Offer gave us a different scenario.

The profitability was decreased in the case of Barcelona Win that is the largest probability of occurrence. So, it’s important to decide how you want to approach by collecting available data especially odds & promotional offers before placing any bet.

In case you find any arbing condition for a Pre-Match bet, you may want to use matched betting to secure profit for it. If Bet365’s odds for a pre-match bet is better than most of the other bookmakers, you may want to make it a part of dutching.

Matched Betting or Dutching?

• It’s entirely up to your preference.
• One of the advantages of Dutching is that the total outlay will be usually smaller. For matched betting, when the refund takes the risk-free form, you need to find higher odds in-play, which usually requires large exchange liability and possibly bigger loss comes from the bigger odds difference between bookmaker & exchange.
• The in-play odds quickly moves so the best timing is immediately after the game starts and before bookies reduce all odds (it depends on the bookmaker though, generally they drop all 1 x 2 odds slightly within a few minutes after the kick-off) or half time.
•  When you’re forced to take not favourable odds (means lower odds in case of Dutching) during in-play, don’t be panic. You always have a solution that may reduce the profit bit though. The only & simple solution is making an additional back bet on the outcome you faced lower odds by comparing the additional winnings & outlay.

I will post the final result after the game. Again, don’t miss Bet365 In-Play Guaranteed Profit, very juicy opportunity.

Actual Results

As promised, I summarize exactly what I have done & Got as follows;

1st Qualifying Bet

While I was writing my original post(14th Feb’17), the lay odds decreased to 1.52, therefore, I placed £50 on Bayern Win at 1.5 odds in Bet365 and Layed Off at 1.52 rather than 1.55 in SMarkets, thus I lost £0.99 rather than £1.69 (the below image is SMarket account history, I profited £25 in Bet365 while lost £25.99 in SMarkets, the difference is £0.99 loss) ;

As shown SMarket account history, Click To Enlarge

2nd In-Play Bet

I finally chose the Dutching Method because as I demonstrated in my previous example of Barcelona vs Man City last October, I can combine a few other bookies’ offers. A big game like this Champions League usually collects at least a few to several bookies’ promotions.

Some of them are;

I decided to use William Hill, Paddy Power & Netbet, because both Boylesports & Betfair Sports gubbed my account. (PlS. additional view Special Report by GEM

These bets require Pre-Match Bet, therefore I had to place them before placing Bet365 In-play bet to construct Dutching.

Although I placed some bets a bit earlier, I tried to place those bets as close to the game to avoid big deviation from the Bet365 odds I can take In-Play. Having said, the below shows the oddschecker table just before the game starts;

oddschecker table just before the game starts, Click To Enlarge

When it comes to In-Play Bet, the key issue is the timing of bet placement because it keeps fluctuating. As explained, there are 2 best timings, which are immediately after starting a game and half time.

Since I already decided to bet on Draw for Bet365 In-Play Bet, I tried to do it quickly after the game starts (usually the odds decreases when the game starts) and before it drastically moves due to any goal.

In short, what I did were;

The predicted Profit at the time I left the game was;

• Bayern Wins: £182 win (WH & PP) + £70 (Bet365 & Netbet Refund + WH Boost) – £201 (outlay) – £0.99 (1st Bet Qualifying Loss) = £50.01
• Result Draw: £250 –  £201 (outlay) – £0.99 (1st Bet Qualifying Loss) + £10 (Netbet Refund) = £58.01
• Arsenal Wins: £186 (Netbet & Betway & Gentings) + £50 (Bet365 Refund) – £201 (outlay) – £0.99 (1st Bet Qualifying Loss) = £34.01

Match Result

As you know, Arsenal was miserably battered by Bayern with 5 – 1 Score;

So, let’s confirm my final results as below;

 Wrap Up

If I had taken Standard Matched Betting Approach, how could I have ended up? Well, difficult to estimate especially I failed to keep tracking the odds change.

But, if my memory is correct, the decreased odds of Arsenal Win in Bet365 at the same timing, when I placed draw bet, was 8.00 while SMarkets lay odds was around 9.00 (probably I’m wrong), so it could have been £38.18 profit. Then the final profit would be £38.18 – £0.99 (1st qualifying loss) = £37.19 which is also pretty good.

However, I myself still prefer to take the Dutching method considering the huge risk of fluctuating In-Play odds. Standard Matched betting largely depends on this In-Play Risk.

Anyway, as briefly said, I left the game with the satisfying profit projection based on the confidence that Bayern would win, but actually, Arsenal scored soon after I left.

This means I missed the opportunity to make a further bet to make all the profit more equally (the profit of Arsenal Win was too small compared with the other 2 outcomes). Yes, the result was OK, but some of you may prefer equal guaranteed profit.

A Few Further Tips;

Below are some tips for you;

• This Dutching technique can be used in the same way as on other occasions, especially when you combine multiple bookies’ offers, therefore it’s a good idea to keep this option at any time.
• As said, it’s recommendable to complete your ideal Dutching setting rather than leave it halfway through, especially no reasons to miss such a big match with a lot of fun & entertainment except for the Arsenal fans.
• Lastly, you may review my Tips in the original post, especially the point of – When you’re forced to take not favourable odds (means lower odds in case of Dutching) during in-play, don’t be panic. You always have a solution that may reduce the profit bit though. The only & simple solution is making an additional back bet on the outcome you faced lower odds by comparing the additional winnings & outlay.

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