- Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet365 Early Payout Introduction
- What Exactly Are Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet 365 Early Payout Offers?
- What Are The Benefits Of The Offer?
- Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet365 2 Goals Ahead Early Payout: Risk-Free Method
- Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet365 Early Payout – Wrap Up
- Post Scripts - Ideal Odds / Player Selection For Best Profits
Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet365 Early Payout Introduction
Paddy Power 2 Up and Bet365 2 Goals Ahead Early Payout is arguably the most attractive offer For those who bet with a hedge, namely Matched Betting.
Simply, place a pre-match bet on any team to win a match and lay at a betting exchange. If your team goes ahead by two goals you will have two options;
- You can hope that your team goes on to lose or draw, and then both your back and lay bet will win.
- You can look at backing your team to win at a betting exchange to lock in profits by using our custom-made free calculator.
We share a step-by-step process of these 2 options in this guide.
Remember, you need neither Paddy Power Bonus Code nor Bet365 Bonus Code to participate in the offers.
What Exactly Are Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet 365 Early Payout Offers?
Paddy Power 2 Up – You Win
Paddy Power originally started this promotion concept in football, offering;
It’s been expanded into tennis and regularly conducts “2 Up – You Win” promotion at major tennis events such as;
Paddy Power Men’s French Open 2 Up – You Win
The site says;
Bet365 Early Payout Offer
Bet365 follows suit and regularly run the same promotion as Bet365 Early Payout football or Bet365 2 Goals Ahead Early Payout;
Bet365 French Open Early Payout Offer
Bet365 even extended the offer into various sports like NFL;
and Bet365 Early Payout Rugby (which means they continuously offer this promotion to the major sports & events);
besides, they now expanded into Bet365 Early Payout Accumulator as below;
Betway First Goal Wins
Betway also started the First Goal Wins offer which is;
Back a team to win and if your team scores first and goes on to draw or lose, we’ll payout as a winner.
This offer basically works the same as Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet365 Early Payout.
What Are The Benefits Of The Offer?
2 Biggest Advantages
Let me share the 2 big advantages of this promotion;
- Unlike the other free bet offers, there is no limit to the Refund / Payout Amount except your max. stake limit for both Paddy Power & Bet 365 Offers. And remember you will receive the payout Not in the form of Paddy Power Free Bet / Bet365 Free Bet but in the form of CASH Winnings, so the value is much higher than the free bets.
- Probably Bet365 does not but Paddy Power allows your gubbed account to do this offer. We received mixed feedback, some said “Got Paid Early” some said “Not Happened”, and some were sent Specific Restriction Remarks on This Promotion as below;
Click To Enlarge
Obviously, it’s not consistent, so suggest that even if your account is gubbed, place the bet to see if it works for you. And after you confirm working, then start the method you find in this document.
Therefore, you can potentially make an unlimited risk-free profit (possibly in your restricted account). I’ll show you 2 methods.
The Methods Apply To Both Tennis & Football
But, bear in mind that the common benefits of these offers are Early Payout, and our methods can be used Not Only for Tennis But Also for Football. In fact, it can basically apply to any sports event if the underlying concept is the same.
Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet365 2 Goals Ahead Early Payout: Risk-Free Method
As said at the beginning, we don’t gamble but use the Matched Betting technique to make almost every offer risk-free. So, yes the 1st and base method is to use matched betting in both Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet365 Early Payment offers.
Matched Betting – Underlying Method
If you are a matched bettor, just skip this section. In case you’re not familiar with the concept, Matched Betting For Dummies – 9 Essential Things will be of your help. But very briefly, I will explain how matched betting works for this Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet365 Early Payout Offer.
What we do are;
- 2 transactions of Back (bet on win) a Player at Paddy Power & Lay (bet on NOT win) the same Player at Betting Exchange like Smarkets so that you cover all outcomes.
- Regardless of the outcome, your losing & winning will cancel out each other. In real practice, usually, 2 bets are not perfectly offset due to the odds difference & exchange commission. Therefore you make a small loss called Qualifying Loss.
- However, if your backing player or team goes ahead 2-0 and then loses the match you will win at both Paddy Power / Bet365 and Exchange, which could potentially be a massive profit because as said, the early payout amount is No limit.
Real Example
The below is just an example of a Football case. The Champions League Bet365 Early Payout result – I bet £25 on Juventus which went ahead by 2 goals, but finally, Tottenham caught up & ended the draw. It means, I got a winning £26.25;
And, £24.29 in the betting exchange (Matchbook) I placed a lay bet on Juventus as;
Click To Enlarge
- The success factor is how to minimize this qualifying loss by selecting the player whose odds gap (between Paddy Power & Smarkets) is the narrowest.
Important Note – Tennis Rule Difference
When you do tennis matched betting (don’t worry about football), you need to match the bookmaker & exchange that use the same tennis retirement rule to avoid unpleasant loss.
Paddy Power’s retirement rule is identical to the exchanges Betfair (you may want to use Betfair Alternatives), Betdaq, Smarkets & Matchbook use the same retirement rule of “1st Set Completed”. However, Bet365 uses a different rule of “Match Completed”. Therefore, suggest you use Dutching Method when you lock in profit.
For step-by-step instruction, take a look at; Dutching Betting – Awesome Technique To Win More & Reduce Risk, where you can also find the details about what’s the difference between tennis retirement rules & impact on your profit.
Betting Exchange
As you see in the above process, betting exchange is essential for matched betting. Therefore, it’s critical to adopt the right approach toward the betting exchanges from the beginning, which will affect your long-term profit.
We discussed more detail about betting exchange in this guide.
We position Smarkets as a Core Betting Exchange for matched betting. Not Betfair, Why? See the above guide.
Anyhow, for those who have not opened a Smarkets exchange account, we prepared a step-by-step guide for your flawless start. You can effortlessly extract cash from its sign-up bonus of £10 Risk-Free Bet. The “” icon underneath displays the full process;
Please follow the below process, which takes less than 10 minutes to complete;
Update & Confirm T&C (Terms & Conditions)
- Firstly, Go To Smarkets Welcome Offer Page and see the latest offer. Currently, you can choose either 0% Commission for 60 days or a £20 Cash Refund Sign-Up Promotion (or if you’re lucky you may find a better offer they periodically run via that link)
- Read welcome bonus T&C. I know it’s boring stuff but never try to save time by skipping it to avoid any unpleasant future surprise;
Simple Sign-Up By Filling Information
- After reading the T&C, click the “Claim Bonus” button;
- Fill in the required information related to your Account, Personal Information, and Never Forget to enter Promotion Code, namely 0% Commission for 60 days (code COMMFREE) or £20 Cash Refund (code SMK20) & Deposit;
A Few Key Points
- For the deposit method, Skrill & Neteller deposits are not eligible for the £20 Cash Refund.
- You need to deposit at least £10 in a single amount to qualify for the £20 Cash Refund.
- You need to spend the full £20 Cash Refund within 7 days after you get credited, otherwise, any unused cash refund balance will be removed.
- Account Verification. You will receive the below e-mail to verify your account. Suggest you do it as quickly as possible to prevent any future transaction delay;
Click To Enlarge
- That’s it. You’re now ready to place lay bets to construct matched betting once you sign-up the bookmakers.
- If you are not familiar with how to start matched betting, see how to place a qualifying bet.
How To Extract Cash From The Offer?
As said, the Smarkets signup offer is probably the easiest one. Because you don’t have to do anything. Smarkets will refund your first £20 loss. Yes, even if you win thousands of £ before you lose £20, Smarkets will refund your first £10 loss.
So, just keep doing the matched betting, and whenever you lose £20 for the first time in Smarkets, you will be refunded, and as you’re aware it’s your profit. But beware that the Cash refund will expire in 7 days, therefore make sure you use up all the refunds within 7 days.
Some Good News
- Very simple, isn’t it? Smarkets & all other bet exchanges I list in the betting exchange guide are fully licensed & regulated by the UK gambling commission. And they all register in IBAS – Independent Betting Adjudication Service, thus you can let IBAS resolve when you face any problem with them.
- Remember, any income from matched betting is Tax-Free in the UK / Ireland even if you are treated as a professional gambler, which means you make living in gambling with the gambling profits as your main income source – see further in the Tax section in this report.
2 Options
As briefly said at the beginning, If your team goes ahead by two goals you will have two options based on the probability.
The first option is just to leave the above standard matched betting, and hope your team finally fails to win.
However, what is the chance of it?
Probability Check
“The Player Who Wins the First 2 Sets Will Finally Lose the Match” is ideal. I know many of you think it’s an extremely low probability that the player who already lost the first 2 sets would win the match.
Yes, you’re right, not so many. Let’s discuss this based on the numbers. Since I found an interesting stat posted by a member in the Oddsmonkey forum (you will find more detail about Oddsmonkey in our Full Review – List Of Competitive Edge Over Rivals Testified By The Founder;), let me extract it as below. (%) & alphabet of (A),(B),(C),(D) are my addition for the subsequent explanation;
From Wimbledon 2016:
43 out of 64 first-round matches had a player go 2-0 up (67%). 21 others were 1-1 (33%) after two sets.
- 31 out of 43 matches finished in three sets, 72% (A)
- 7 out of 43 matches finished in four sets, 16% (B)
The remaining 5 out of 43 matches (12%) finished in five sets of which;
- two won by players who were 2-0 up, 5% or 40% out of 5 (C)
- three won by players who were 2-0 down, 7% or 60% out of 5 (D)
So, at the early stage (1st round) of the Grand Slam, 67% of the matches went 2-up and 12% of 67% saw a massive recovery by the player who was beaten in the 1st 2 sets.
What do you say? You may be a bit surprised with the better result of hitting the ideal scenario than you originally felt. No? Well, ok you may feel right because such probability is yet less than 10% out of the total games.
Oddsmonkey ForumNote;
Remember, the % I show based on the above numbers is not trustworthy from a research perspective due to the extremely limited number of samples. So just consider them as indicative ones which still give us good insight on how to build the optimal tactics.
So, let’s move to the 2nd method to lock in a profit regardless of the outcome.
Cashout / Trade Out Method
The method I discuss here applies only after we see Our Backing Player achieves 2 Up. Otherwise, this offer is over by ending most probably with a small qualifying loss.
Once the player goes 2 sets up, Paddy Power pays you the winnings. Since you are doing matched betting, you still have an unsettled lay bet at Exchange at this stage. What we do is Cashout at Betfair or Trade Out at Smarkets.
Trade Out is an Early Cashout to offset the lay liability. You can do it by clicking the “To” button as shown;
Early Payout / 2Up Lock-In Profits Calculator & Free Download
You can use our GEM 2Up Early Payout Calculator to lock profits, the image is;
Below is the enlarged instruction on the right hand of the above calculator area;
You can use the top box of the Standard Qualifying Bet Part to calculate the original matched betting lay stake & qualifying loss.
Then, the middlebox of the Trade Out Part will calculate the back stake at the exchange to see the eventual profit in the bottom box.
Paddy Power 2 Up – Tactics On Each Option
As I noted in the above Key Tips in the Spreadsheet Instruction, there are 3 success factors for this Offer. The 1st 2 factors are obvious. Selecting the tightest odds is all about matched betting. And the bigger (longer) back odds at bookmaker do make sense because your profit source is winnings at Paddy Power, so yes the longer the better.
Then, what is the 3rd factor of “The Bigger Your Back Odds at Exchange after 2 up is, The Better Your Profit will be.“? This is related to the (A) – (D). Let me show you how it works with a spreadsheet based on the following hypothetical example;
Example
Let’s assume you stake £100 to construct matched betting by backing Player A at the odds of 1.8 (Paddy Power) & laying the same Player A at 1.85 (Smarkets). Fortunately, Player A won 1st 2 sets and at the time before starting the 3rd set, Player A’s back odds at Smarkets downed to 1.05. Don’t get confused, Yes, it’s not a typo, now we are saying Back (Not Lay) at Exchange because cash out is all about offsetting lay liability by additionally backing the same player at the exchange, which is practically Selling Your Lay Position.
With this example, see how we maximize profits in each option;
(A) Option: 72% Probability of Ending as 3 – 0
This is the most likely happening scenario. This means 72% of the matches where Player A went ahead 2 sets up won the 3rd set, thus winning the match.
In this case, the best tactic is to trade out as early as possible in the 3rd set. But Player A’s back odds are shortened to 1.05 under the 2-0 condition, the profit will be only £5.06;
(B) Option: 16% Probability of Ending as 3-1
This is the next probable scenario. 16% of the matches where Player A went ahead saw One set recovery by the opponent but Player A won the match by winning the 4th set.
In this case, the best tactics are to trade out after the opponent won the 3rd set, because Player A’s back odds drifted slightly back, say to 1.25, and the profit will increase to £32.79;
(C) Option: 5% of Probability of Ending as 3-2
This is the least happening scenario. 5% of the matches where Player A went ahead saw 2 consecutive sets recovery by the opponent but finally, Player A won the match.
In this case, the best tactic is to trade out after the opponent won the 4th set because Player A’s back odds must be significantly increased, say to 1.6. Then the profit will be £64.63;
So, now you understand my 3rd success factor in the Key Tips. The bigger the back odds, the better the final profit will be.
(D) Option: 7% of Ending as 2-3
This is effectively the Ideal Scenario we discussed at the beginning and obviously, we never Trade Out. 7% of the matches where Player A went ahead resulted in a turnaround by the opponent. Or 60% of the game seeing the 2 consecutive sets recovery by the opponent ended up with Come-From-Behind-Victory.
This (D) scenario is more likely to happen than (C). We can easily imagine it because of the momentum of the opponent. The profit will be £80 (Paddy Power Winnings) + £96.39 (Lay Return at Smarkets) = £176.39
Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet365 Early Payout – Wrap Up
Advantage Play
Finally, allow us to talk a bit about our betting principle. We don’t gamble. We do 6 Advantage Plays based on mathematical edge to beat the bookies, casinos & bingo.
When it comes to Sports Betting & Horse Racing, we use Matched Betting / Sports Arbitrage / Value Bets On Proven Systems & Tipsters to lock in a profit or consistently earn extra income for the long term.
It is effectively our way to promote Responsible Gambling under the regulation, and we strongly support GamCare
& BeGambleAware being explained in about us.
We, Global Extra Money (GEM) would like our readers to exploit those reliable money-making opportunities as much as possible. Sharing the method to lock in profit from Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet365 Early Payout Offers is part of our efforts to achieve that objective.
What we have been doing here is, Simply put, by constructing the matched betting, we make this offer almost Risk Free (just a small qualifying loss) while expecting to lock in profit under the different scenarios.
Bet365 Dutching
When you do Dutching for Bet365 TENNIS (football is ok, you can use matched betting) Early Payment offer, you can lay the player who loses the 2 sets by In-Play instead of Trade Out method, so that you secure Bet365 winnings from early payout while cancelling out the loss in the other bookmaker. If you don’t understand this, please go to Dutching Betting Guide.
What I reviewed in the above scenarios is based on the actual results that already happened in Wimbledon 2016.
So the tactics I said are hindsight. Then, how can we judge the timing of when we should trade out? Obviously, there is no definitive answer but the best way is to keep reading the tide of the game. The good thing is you are the one who can control the timing of the trade-out. So whenever you feel comfortable, lock in the profit.
Let me reiterate, we’re not doing gambling, so even if your team loses or doesn’t 2-up, your loss is extremely limited compared with the usual gambling.
Besides, the real advantage is you can stake big. If you stake £1,000 rather than £100 in the above example, your profit becomes £50.6 even if you trade out immediately after the 2nd set at the lowest 1.05 odds.
BTW, Paddy Power’s standard limit is supposed to be £10,000, and Bt365 is more than that. The most important thing is to Minimize Qualifying Loss, and the ideal condition is arbing.
Matched Betting is usually scalping a small sure profit, but for this particular Paddy Power 2 Up – You Win & Bet365 Early Payout Offer, Matched Bettor will Play a High Roller’s Game.
Finally, if you keep talking too much value from the bookmakers, you may most likely be gubbed, which means your betting account will be restricted.
Actually, it’s just a matter of time before most of the soft bookies limit your account if you do matched betting without any precautionary actions.
So, we have prepared the following 2 guides – One is Before Restriction, The Other One is After Restriction;
We believe the above 2 guides will help you keep exploiting unfair bookies, means will enable you to make money on the side reliably for the long term.
BTW, In case you're a sharp casino & game bonus hunter, strongly suggest taking a look at the List of 52 Best Bitcoin Casino Bonuses and for those who appreciate the highest privacy, go to the List of Best Anonymous Bitcoin Casinos & Bonuses, just FYI.
If you have any inquiries or need any help from us, please contact us anytime (don't worry, we will not charge you any fee, everything is free here).
Good Luck!!
Joshua Walker (bio)
Editor - Global Extra Money (GEM)
Post Scripts - Ideal Odds / Player Selection For Best Profits
I believe you have another question. How can we identify the matches that have a better chance to go 2 up & eventually better profit? Yes, the key is Better Profit.
If you want only 2 up matches, just select the strong favorite match. Choosing Nadal match in the French Open and Federer match in Wimbledon will give you an extremely high probability of achieving that. However, at the same time, it will be extremely high probability to end at 3-0.
The same member in Oddsmonkey forum I quoted before also posted an interesting info as below;
Trying to look more closely at the 12 matches that went to four or five sets and work out who the players were and ifthere are any trendsre: seedings or style of play.
Lukas Rosol vs. Sam Querrey (28)
Philip Kohlschreiber (21) vs. Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Damir Dzumhur vs. Denis Kudla
Nicolas Almagro vs. Rogerio Dutra Silva
Denis Istomin vs. Kevin Anderson (20)
Evgeny Donskoy vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov (30)
Santiago Giraldo vs. Gilles Muller
Horacio Zeballos vs. Mikhail Youzhny
Donald Young vs. Leonardo Mayer
Taylor Fritz vs. Stan Wawrinka (4)
Marcel Granollers vs. Victor Estrella Burgos
Nick Kyrgios (15) vs Radek Stepanek
In bold is the player who went 2-0 and so we would’ve benefited from the early payout offer with a bet on them. Aside from Wawrinka and Kyrgios, most of the players involved were either unseeded or seeded 20-32.
Oddsmonkey ForumUnfortunately, I'm not a tennis expert thus can't analyze further from these players & results. But, it looks obvious that the match with strong favorite players has little chance to have a good return under Paddy Power 2 Up or Bet365 Eary Payout offer.
I assume the comparable players' matches say 1.8 - 2.3 odds range seems to give you a better chance to have a better return.
With all that said, to me, the first priority is to Focus On Searching The Tightest Gap Matches, then consider the Rival Matches if the odds gaps are acceptable.
Paddy Power 2 Up & Bet365 Early Payout - Appendix
Spreadsheet
For those who would like to download the Spreadsheet I used in this article, please visit GEM Matched Betting Spreadsheet Archive, where you will find a list of all the available Spreadsheet Calculators & a Comprehensive Guide to follow.
Paddy Power Other Opportunities
Besides, if you seek a way to lock in profit from Paddy Power Promotions, suggest going through Paddy Power ACCA Insurance Will Make €/£1,000 Risk-Free Profit.
Bet365 Other Opportunities
Let me introduce you the following 2 popular guides related to Bet365 offers;
If you have any inquiries or need any help from us, please contact us anytime (don't worry, we will not charge you any fee, everything is free here).
Good Luck Again!!
Joshua Walker (bio)
Editor - Global Extra Money (GEM)
