Casino Bonus Strategy – How To Beat Online Casino With Expected Value Betting
- 1. Expected Value Betting – Casino Bonus Strategy Introduction
- 2. On Line Casino Markets
- 3. How To Use Casino Bonus For Expected Value Betting?
- 4. Casino Expected Value Betting – Simple Math Behind
- 5. Casino Expected Value Betting – Games To Play
- 6. Expected Value Betting Key Process & Tactics
- 7. Casino Basic Strategies – Security & Fairness
Expected Value Betting – Casino Bonus Strategy Introduction
Online casino has been growing rapidly supported by many reasons such as data below. Our aim of playing online casino is Solely to make Sure PROFIT by focusing on how to Extract Bonus from the casino sites as quickly & effectively as possible, with Expected Value Betting;
On Line Casino Markets
And Online Gambling Market shows the big number of online gamblers & their average spending time per day as below image;
However, we’re still in the infant stage when it comes to the growth of online gambling. The below image shows rapid growth of the market but indicates that only 1% of the gamblers play online means it has still huge potential for further growth;
The issue is player’s loss. According to the same source of the Online Gambling Market Growth the article says
the truth is, 80 percent of people who are involve on gambling failed to win and ends up empty pocket. As the experts say, the ratio between winning and losing at online gambling is like 1 is to 100. But if you feeling lucky today, get ready to rumble! the Online Gambling Market Growth
This is the sad truth, and we don’t want people to lose money at casinos especially for Aussie & Singaporean – Why? See the data at the bottom of the report Beat The Bookies By Knowing How Your Enemy Makes Money – Secret Of Odds. We want you to make profit based on NOT By Chance but on mathematical advantage.
How To Use Casino Bonus For Expected Value Betting?
Many people just spend & lose without knowing the real value of casino bonus. Allow me to reiterate that you can’t beat Casino for long term due to the built-in house edge. However, when the bonus comes in, the rule of the game becomes different. Yes, we turn the Casino’s bonus into real extra money.
As illustrated in the below image, Casino offers several types of bonus. But we need to carefully select the ones which allow us to extract with Risk Free.
Casino Bonus Sign-Up Tactics
Before moving into further, for those who are seeking quick practical guide for the best casino sign-up strategy, see 5 Most Profitable Casino Sign Up Methods – Stay Away From No Deposit Bonus;This guide will help you save a lot of money from wasting the juicy bonus by mere gambling or lack of knowledge.
Casino Expected Value Betting – Simple Math Behind
Let’s move to the practical strategies.
Odds & House Edge
Firstly, see the below info-graphics produced by Casino UK that explains the meaning of the Odds;
Casino House Edge
All the casino games (with just 1 or 2 exceptions in Video Porker games) there is House Edge that makes you certainly lose in long term. It’s not a sort of cheating or manipulation at all. Casino is a profit aiming business and it’s absolutely fair for them to set profit structure to cover their business cost & reasonable profit as any other usual business does. The below infographics (the same source) briefly explains how the house edge is built-in by using Roulette case;
Remember, mathematically you can’t win casino for long term. I am saying long term. For short term yes you have chances to win due to the Variance which is a dependence on luck, that is so called gambling.
We’re not doing gambling but Expected Value Betting. Therefore our aim is not beating the casino game but focusing on the extraction of the bonus where we have edge with positive EV (Expected Value). So, Expected Value Betting is Placing Bet with Positive EV. Let’s see a bit of mathematics behind our approach.
There are several types of casino bonus as briefly said in the above. The point is we should know how much value each bonus has for us and we can judge based on the 1 simple indicator of EV (Expected Value).
Very quick explanation about EV. Expected value is a concept in probability describing the average outcome of a random event. Means it’s the basis of determining the long-term profitability of betting. Simply, positive +EV is profitable over the long term and the bigger the more profit.
If you started getting bored, skip this section and just remember the basic notion that You Can’t Beat Math. Therefore as long as you take the offers with Positive EV you will surely beat the casino in Long Term. So, you have to focus on how to achieve Positive EV by learning the basic tactics of each game.
Casino Game (EV) Expected Value
In calculating EV in Casino games, you need 2 variables of;
- House Edge
- Total Wager Amount you plan to bet
Let’s say you play Blackjack of 3% house edge, and you wager £100 in total, you will theoretically lose £3. Variance plays a lot for small wager, it may not be £3 but much bigger or smaller. But when the wager amount (to be precise the number of playing games) becomes large such as £10,000 ( £10 x 1,000 times play), the loss will get closer to 3%.
Casino Bonus EV
Finally, how we apply the calculation into Bonuses. For EV calculation, we need 3 variables of;
- Bonus Amount
- WR (Wager Requirements) – this is a key element for bonus clearance. Many casino give you very generous bonus such as “500% match to your Deposit”, namely if you deposit £100, you will be given £500 instantly. However, you have to wager the 20X rollover on your deposit + bonus (this is called WR) before you can withdraw any of your balance. Means if you have £600 deposit & bonus, you have to bet £12,000 on Casino games before you withdraw any money. Casino expects you to lose all the money before completing this WR.
- House Edge
With that information, you can tell if any gambling bonus could be profitable or not with the following formula;
EV = Bonus (£) – WR Amounts (£) x House Edge (%)
Let’s apply the above examples of 500% bonus by playing Blackjack;
EV = £500 – (£12,000) x 3% = £140 So you have Positive EV of £140, thus you are able to make Expected Velue Betting from this offer. It means you will not lose but surely win long term as long as you keep taking this offer.
This is how you assess each bonus offer with the basic EV formula. We have customized value calculation methods for different bonus type based on the level of the Risk / Reward. Please see the bottom of this document to check the list of specific instruction on each bonus type.
Casino Expected Value Betting – Games To Play
Specific Step by Step Instruction on Expected Value Betting
Go The Guide To Get Real Cash from Extremely Low Risk Casino Easy Bonus where you see the instruction using real examples of the offers.
Our primary objective is efficiently extracting casino bonus for busy people rather than enjoying playing games, it’s wise to focus on fewer games and get used to them. I list below 3 games simply because;
- The lowest or Relatively low house edge
- By far the most popular with simple rules (especially Slots)
The key tactics applying to all 3 games is to reduce the variance as much as possible and make your loss close to the house edge. Means basically you should play as many games as possible with minimum stake / game unless otherwise required.
Chose Single Deck rather than multiple deck. Because it improves your chance of getting Blackjack hand (aside from the detail probability calculation, 8-deck game’s successful drawing of blackjack is 98% of the single-deck game). To determine the exact house edge you plan to play, go Wizard of Odds’ Blackjack House Edge Calculator .
Always use Blackjack Perfect Strategy. It allows us to make the optimal decisions based on the cards we have and what the Dealer is showing. See the below table that exhibits your action to be taken for every occasion. All you need to do is to keep the table while playing and follow it. Don’t misunderstand this is not a winning tactics but the best tactics to make your plays close to the lowest possible house edge (say down to around 0.3%). Means you will still not win for long term but ending up with the lowest house edge. Simply put, reducing variance is all about our objective in Advantage Play of Bonus Hunting and the Blackjack’s very low house edge among all games makes perfect sense to do it.
For the specific instruction of how to play Blackjack with the real example, go Online Casino Risk Free Bonus Clearing – No Rollover Requirement Tactics.
Basically bet on Double, means The Even Money Bets namely;
- Red or Black
- Even or Odd
- Low (1 – 18) or (19 – 36)
,because it is the lowest house edge.
Some casino prohibits you to keep playing the Double bet during the WR stage. Then you may use Treble bets, our specific instruction for each bonus case will explain the details.
3) Slot Machine
Remember the house edge is not as low as the table games. The reason why I list Slot as one of the 3 selected games is based on the fact that slots are the undisputed kings of online casinos. It accounts around 70% of all gaming revenue. Besides, many casino bonus offers are with Slot (restricted only to Slot to claim bonus) such as “Free Spins”, therefore avoiding Slot will miss many lucrative opportunities.
Try to pick high RTP (Return To Players). RTP describes % pay back to players, so if it says 90%, meaning that over time the machine will keep about 10% of all money bet and will return the other 90% to players in wins. The % is just the flip side of house edge. You may evaluate the RTP % as;
Superb: 98% < / Excellent: 97% – 98% / Great 95% – 97% / Acceptable 93% – 95% / Low: > 93%
Most slots have the RTP listed in their game rules or pay tables, for example, Betfair Casino is as below;
Or just Goggle with for example “Ocean Princess Slot RTP” (Ocean Princess Slot is 1 of the highest RTP Slots with 99.1% RTP, Just FYI). In case you can’t find RTP information, you may want to avoid that slot.
Generally speaking, the slots with the blockbuster title such as Jurassic Park, X-men & Iron Man 2 etc must be relatively low RTP because the developers need to pay substantial license fee which should be recovered in some way – yes from you players as the lower RTP;
Just a common sense first, in slot game, you will only win payouts on lines that you bet on. If you only bet on 10 of 25 paylines and the winning combination falls on a line that you didn’t in fact bet on (or activate), you get nothing for that combination. Thus as a general rule of thumb, it is in the players’ best interests to activate all paylines on every spin. Not doing so could result in missing out on progressives or other big wins.
Having said and as the basic principle to reduce the variance applies, the general approach is;
- Select Minimum Stakes
- Select Maximum Lines
For the spoon-fed instruction of how to play slot with the real example, go 3 Most Popular Casino Games – Technique To Rake Cash From Risk Free Bonus.
I focused on 3 Games in this document but from purely Lowest House Edge Game, Video Poker & Craps beat these 3 games. I also introduced basic tactics on Poker, Craps & Baccarat as a Spinoff document, if you’re interested, please access to Smart Ways To Use Top 3 Lowest House Edge Games To Extract Casino Bonus.
List Of High RTP Slots
For your convenience, some of the extremely low House Edge slots of which RTP is over 99% are;
- Goblin’s Cave (Playtech) – 99.3% RTP Reels/Paylines: 3×3/3 Min/Max bet: £0.10/£5.00
- Ocean Princess (Playtech) – 99.1% RTP Reels/Paylines: 3×5/5 Min/Max bet: £0.10/125.00
- Ugga Bugga (Playtech) – 99.1 RTP Reels/Paylines: 3×10/10 Min/Max bet: £0.10/£250.00
- Mega Joker Jackpot (NetEnt) – 99% RTP Reels/Paylines: 3×3/5 Min/Max bet: £0.10-£1.00
- Nemo’s Voyage (WMS) – 99% RTP Reels/Paylines: 5×4/40 Min/Max bet: £0.40/£200.00
- Ooh Aah Dracula (Barcrest) – 99% RTP Reels/Paylines: 5×3/10 Min/Max bet: £0.10/£500.00
However, you may not always find these slots in casino sites, or even if you find, some casinos limit the WR contribution or entirely exclude from the WR contribution.
Then, you may consider;
BTW, the RTP of the most popular slots you can find in almost every casino (excluding blockbuster title or celebrity such as The Dark Knight or Michael Jackson King of Pop etc) are;
Just For Your Information.
EV Maximiser – Slot Machine Mathematical Bet Simulator
BTW, when it comes to the Slot Machine, there is an excellent simulator called EV MaxmiserThis is the product of Mike Cruickshank, the founder of Bonus Bagging & Profit Maximiser. Click the above image then you will be navigated to the video Mike explains about how it works. In short, it does all the calculations to work out;
- The estimated value
- Chance of busting
- Profit per hour and average amount of wagering complete
- A slots machine database with over 800 machines including the house edge and variance level of each game
It’s a very useful tool and essential for casino bonus raking because many casino offers involve Slot Machines. Remember, this is an advanced strategy with high risk, so unless you feel comfortable, put it on back burner.
Expected Value Betting Key Process & Tactics
Explanation of all methods, Online Casino Bonus Hunting
Here, let me list general process & tactics as follows;
- After you finish reading this document, suggest strongly go through 5 Most Profitable Casino Sign Up Methods – Stay Away From No Deposit Bonus to grab the overall sign-up prioritization & avoid missing juicy opportunities.
- Then, move to read Smart Ways To Use Top 3 Lowest House Edge Games To Extract Casino Bonus, which is a spin-off tactical paper of this document.
- Once you complete the above 2, you may want to start conquering the casino bonus based on the following instructions ;
- Start up with How To Guarantee Real Cash from Casino Bonus Cashback Sites Check the Cashback site and chose the Casino sites you can receive cashback by signing-up via Cashback Sites, which is completely Risk Free + Guaranteed Profit.
- After exploiting all the Cashback sign-ups, move to No Risk (if you still like NDB – No Deposit Bonus) / Extremely Low Risk by learning below specific tactics & step-by-step instruction to rake the various bonuses;
- Lastly, after you get used to the approaches here and are fully aware of the Risk vs Reward of Online Casino;
How To Win Casino High Risk Bonus Big by Mathematical Bet (Member Only), ,which is Not Risk Free but High Risk thus you need to be disciplined especially in money management. Having said, unless you’re ready for that, it’s better to focus on the low risk opportunities.
- Bear it in mind, since all the online casino sites are very sensitive to the activities that exploit their bonus offers they often change the T&C. Therefore, it’s imperative for you to check the latest rules before you start using the method & depositing your money.
- Importantly, your apparent bonus hunting activities may trigger red flag and your account could be closed as being labelled as a bonus abuser. Thus take a careful approach explained in the each instruction.
Casino Basic Strategies – Security & Fairness
As the last strategy, but obviously not least, security is the utmost priority together with the fairness when you play online casino with real money.
Fairness is the point if the game is not manipulated by the site to let you lose with unreasonable house edge etc. All reputable online casinos need to use RNG (Random Number Generation) that is an algorithms used in computing when an outcome needs to be as random as possible. One way to know if the particular casino site is fair and secure is to check if the casino has the eCOGRA seal of approval, or whether it bears the logo of some other independent auditing agency such as iTech Labs or GLI. Such information is usually displayed at the bottom of a casino’s website.
By clicking on the appropriate logo you can basically view the report and certification of the testing agency.
Finally, Check a few facts of the online gambling – Male vs FemaleThe below image shows the UK data though I feel it more or less applies to many countries;
When it comes to only Bingo category, the rate between male & female becomes completely opposite, over 80% comes from female (see the details in Bingo Bonus General Strategy). It’s really pity that people loses so much money in gambling, but you may be impressed with the fact;
Since the data source is different, the man / female rate number is slightly different from the previous image though the point is Female outsmarts Male in terms of the winning in gambling.
So, guys what do you say? It’s time for the man to regain the gambling pride while ladies want to make it better.
Bonus clearing is sure way to do it.
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