Casino Bonus Calculator EV (Expected Value)
Casino Bonus Calculator enables you to assess how much average value each casino bonus is likely to give you in the long term based on expected value (EV).
Remember, it’s theoretically impossible to beat the casino consistently due to the house edge (you may win in the short term due to the variance). The only chance you can keep winning is by making the best use of their bonus and advantage plays smartly. That’s why we focus on bonus tactics when it comes to Casino Strategies.
For those advantage players, “How to Beat Wagering Requirements” is the first tactic each player needs to know but that’s not enough.
Besides, there are many casino bonus calculators also called free spins EV calculators, match bonus calculators, or RTP calculators online. However, most of them are not providing you with an accurate EV, which may mislead you & cause the unexpected loss of your deposits.
If you want to make serious money from the online casino, an advanced EV casino bonus calculator is the only solution.
Check how the 2 Most Sophisticated Casino Bonus EV Calculator can make difference & take your casino bonus whoring to the next level.
BTW, if you’re a crypto casino player, you don’t want to miss the info contained in the “List of Best Bitcoin Casinos All Types of Bonuses“, which includes Crypto Casino No Deposit Bonuses, our GEM Exclusive Bonuses, BTC Reload Bonuses, & BTC Faucet.
This Is Not For Newbie But For Seasoned Casino Advantage Player
Lately, many people who started bonus whoring come from Matched Betting because matched betting subscription services like Oddsmonkey (Review) & Outplayed (renamed from Profit Accumulator) (Review) extended sports betting into this area.
In case you are a casino bonus newbie especially coming from matched betting, bear in mind that Casino Bonus Hunting is neither risk-free nor guaranteed profit. But with the right strategies (remember casino game is all about simple mathematics), you can make profits consistently. Suggest you go through the below basic strategies first;
- Casino Bonus Hunting Guide – 7 Key Tactics
- Casino Bonus Strategy – How To Beat Online Casino With Expected Value Betting
- Step By Step Process To Extract Cash by 3 Most Popular Casino Games
- Smart Ways To Use the Top 3 Lowest House Edge Games To Extract Casino Bonus
Besides, strongly suggest taking a look at the List of 52 Best Bitcoin Casino Bonuses and for those who appreciate the highest privacy, go to the List of Best Anonymous Bitcoin Casinos & Bonuses.
Incidentally, if you use cryptocurrencies for sports betting, suggest taking a look at the List of Best Bitcoin Sports Betting Bookmakers, and Stake regularly offers Risk-Free bets, just FYI.
Low-Risk & High-Risk Bonus
We define the low-risk bonus as follows;
Low Risk-Bonus
Low-risk is the risk that the probability of losing your own money (deposits) is low. So, the popular “No Deposit Bonus (NDB)” like 888 Casino £88 Free is a part of this category. As a matter of fact, a casino bonus with no deposit is completely risk-free because you don’t have to use your own money.
However, it doesn’t mean you can make money from it and the harsh reality is that without proper tactics, people end up just wasting time due to the hefty Wager Requirements attached to every NDB (see 32Red Playthrough Requirements).
Yes, the risk mainly comes from Wager Requirements (WR) that Casino imposes before you can withdraw your bonus winnings.
The casino bonuses we categorize here are the WR with less than several times, which are often offered by bookmakers/betting exchanges like Betfair (you may want to use Betfair Alternatives) Arcade (this offer is no longer available but just as an example, the current offer is Betfair Casino with x45 WR);
Although this type of bonus doesn’t guarantee profits every time, you can expect decent returns as long as you take logical approaches. Suggest you access the below instructions before you pursue high-risk bonus hunting as the core subject in this document;
High Risk-Bonus
As you imagine, High-Risk casino bonuses are the ones that require high WR, like “100% matched deposit bonus up to €100 with 35x WR” like Mr Green’s below welcome offer;
Although such a high WR can be beaten by hitting a big win, it’s still a tough hurdle to achieve profits.
Under such offers, the bust-out rate (the probability of losing your initial deposit) is quite high. Statistically, it is supposed to be 80 – 90% of the time. Then, is it worth it?
Yes, if you play only the offers with positive EV (Expected Value), you will end up in profit over time and so it is a case of trusting EV and having a big enough bankroll to see out the losing streaks.
As said, one big win often can put you back in profit and only players who can select the right offers with the right strategy & tool are eligible to enjoy making a lot of money.
Since we focus on the tool in this report, in case you’re not familiar with the strategies for high-risk bonus hunting, suggest going through Casino High Roller Bonus List with High-Risk Management.
Strategy Difference Between Low-Risk & High-Risk Bonuses
We use a different tactical approach between the low risk & high-risk casino bonus hunting as follows, just FYI;
- Low Risk: Aim to bet as many as possible with the lowest stake amount to avoid the variance as much as possible by selecting low-house edge games such as Blackjack, which will enable you to achieve the EV as closely as possible.
- High Risk (1): Play a High Variance Slot that is set as a high probability of a big win, and take the same approach of the smallest stake as many as possible.
- High Risk (2): Bet High Stake selecting High RTP Slots, not necessarily low or high variance, which theoretically increases the EV although the busting rate increases while the average wagering amount decreases.
Casino Bonus Additional Benefits
Needless to say, the main purpose of a casino bonus hunt is to make money. However, people can also use it for;
Mug Betting
Matched bettors or sports arbers who are afraid of bookies’ account restrictions should play casino regularly, which is a proven method to deter gubbing.
Why? Suggest you take a look at the following 2 guides for details – One is Before Restriction, The Other One is After Restriction;
How Much Can You Make From Casino Bonus Hunting?
See the correspondences between Robert Cockburn from CasinoCalculator.co.uk (see the details later) & me below;
Can you give me the idea of a Predicted Earnings Range Per Month in the LONG-TERM (I mean eliminate short-term variance and thus estimated EV range) with a simple calculation formula/rationale when people follow your guide and take every offer you list in the program?
This is just an indicative prediction.
Don’t Trust Every Wagering Calculator
Can’t We Find A Simple Answer?
Let me repeat what I said previously “if you play only the offers with positive EV (Expected Value), you will end up in profit over time and so it is a case of trusting EV“.
You can make profits, actually big enough profits from this high-risk bonus hunting, but it depends on whether you can gauge the accurate EV of each casino bonus. But is it so complicated?
It seems that many casino players simply want to know;
“Given the T&C of XXX Offer, if I start with £XXX and spin £X on Slot Game XXX, What will be the average profits I would make when I complete WR?”
Can’t we find the correct answer easily?
Let me quote Rob’s answer to this question;
That’s right. When it comes to especially high-risk casino bonus hunting, you need to gauge the accurate EV by considering the unique variables of each offer to assess profitability & identify an appropriate approach.
You need a very specific & sharp calculator to determine if the bonus is going to pay enough to make it worth your while.
There are several casino calculators available online, but when it comes to the application to High-Risk Bonus Hunting, there are only a handful of software that give you the correct numbers because of the following 2 factors;
Variables Input & Simulation Size
Most of the free online casino calculators you find online ask you to just only input your deposit and bonus amounts and what the wagering requirements mean those only calculate how much you need to wager. It is probably OK for a very low-risk bonus
EV varies depending on many variables (even only for the type of bonus, there are Cashable, Post Wager, Cashback bonus, and Sticky bonuses) which are all deciding factors as to whether or not a casino bonus will be profitable in the long term.
Let me quote the explanation of Mike Cruickshank in this regard as follows;
It’s pretty simple. Consider the information that you’ll use when making your calculations on a casino EV calculator:
- The deposit plus your bonus
- The required wagering amount
- The Return to Player Percentage (RTP = the house edge) for a particular slot
Here, the only thing that you’ll get is the calculation that pertains to your average wins and losses, once you’ve done wagering.
This means that you can even get a loss prediction of far more than you’ve wagered! That’s because a simple casino calculator is unable to factor in that the player can bust out of offers. It also can’t figure in the spin size or stake.
In addition, what about when you increase your bust-out chances (and thus increase the offer EV) by significantly upping the stake?
Suppose you don’t spend as much time completing an offer by increasing your bust-out frequency. Overall, doesn’t this earn you a higher profit margin for the time you’re spending?
Here’s another big deciding factor — the variance of the slot you’re using. For a high-accuracy result, you need to include the slot variance as well as the RTP. Unlike the EV Maximiser, you’re not going to find this option in a simple casino calculator.
With the EV Maximiser, you’re going to get a far more accurate response based on variables that are specific to what you can choose to do.
Plus you’ll be running 100,000 simulated spins in approximately 10 seconds.
And, most importantly, you’ll be able to see the predicted results that will depend on the size of your stake.
So, we need to input much more variables data than simple standard EV calculator demands, see Casino Calculator Input Table (will elaborate on this calculator later) below, quite impressive, isn’t it?
Besides, as Mike explains, the standard EV formula is inaccurate when applied to high-risk casino offers or offers with wagering above x1 (which means it’s better to have an accurate EV even for some low-risk casino bonuses as well) due to the formula’s assumption that you will always complete the WR.
To correct this issue, we have to use the Monte Carlo Method, which is a technique to help decide by measuring most or all of the potential outcomes through hundreds of thousands to millions of simulations.
Humans can’t do it manually, we need an advanced casino calculator that is designed to perform this method.
Slots Details
As Mike also explains above, Slot makes a critical role in casino bonus hunting. On top of the WR, the casino usually imposes game restrictions.
You may be able to play any casino game with your bonus but only specific ones can contribute to the WR.
And the most widely used casino game to play with bonuses is online slots, and the contribution of slots to WR is usually 100%. Therefore, using slots is an efficient way to complete WR.
RTP (Return To Player) DataBase
Online Slots are designed to pay out a certain amount, a.k.a. RTP (Return to Player) which is a fixed % but varies between slots. Say slot A has an RTP of 95%, you expect a £95 payout out of £100 wagered.
As you know that this doesn’t mean that you receive back £95 for every £100 wager every time due to the variance. It means, you may receive a lot more or a lot less but you will receive £95 on average in long term.
You need to compare RTP & Risk (Variance) on the slots to decide which slot you play for WR. To do that, you need a comprehensive slot database.
It’s almost impossible for an individual player to compile all those figures due to the large amounts of available slot games.
The best way is to use the database conveniently summarized for this purpose such as EV Maximiser as below (it has 900 slots data as of now);
Now, it’s high time to introduce 2 high-quality advanced tools to take your casino bonus hunting to the next level.
EV Maximiser
So, EV Maximiser can be used for any kind of EV casino offer and be suitable for any player in the world.
EV Maximiser Introductory Video
Suggest you watch Mike’s Introductory Video, which will give you a good insight into how it works. Click the below screenshot, then you will be navigated to the video;
Training
You will go through full training via Video like the above one in the following menu (Never Miss Cashable Bonus since it’s the most popular bonus);
How To Use Calculator With Slot Database
Let me show you a training video example which is a 32Red case in “Cashable bonus – bonus credited instantly”, it shows how you can use the slot database to simulate & determine the best approach;
Advanced Strategy
I’ll share just 1 more video related to the advanced strategy, which is 2 Tier Betting. This video explains its concept & how it works.
But you need to watch the 2-Tier Betting Example video to see how you implement it properly by avoiding careless mistakes.
Summary Of Key Advantages
We can highlight the following benefits you expect from EV Maximiser;
Customized Simulation Of Your Offer With Extremely High Accuracy
As repeatedly said, there are so many variables you need to consider, some of them are;
- What type of bonus is it?
- Amount to deposit
- Max bet size
- Which games are restricted when using a bonus?
- Game weighting
- Wagering requirements
- Are the winnings limited? etc.
And, the calculator should have the ability to take all these parameters into account and provide you with the results that allow you to decide;
- Is it worth doing? : you can judge based on accurate EV together with cash per hour info (see the next Time Calculation).
- Is it within your risk level? : you can evaluate based on the above EV plus the chance of busting % (also see the Knowing Bust Rate). The higher the bust rate, the riskier the offer. If you aren’t comfortable with the level of risk then try lowering the stake/variance of the game to work out the EV.
And, YES, EV Accumulator can do everything with extremely high accuracy based on million’s simulations, which is the highest sophistication in the industry.
Time Calculation
The EV Maximiser provides you with productivity. Say an offer gives £30 EV & a 70% bust rate, which looks like a good deal. But if it requires 10 hours to complete, what do you say?
It is not worth your time. No standard calculator shows such information.
Knowing Bust Rate
One of the most stressful situations is facing a losing streak without knowing how much more you will lose until you complete WR. EV Maximiser tells you how many times you will likely bust out on the offer before making a profit, which gives you good emotional tolerance.
Remember that a decent slot can have a bust rate of 60-80%, you won’t be discouraged when you hit multiple bust rates. That’s because you’ll know enough to expect a big win that will balance out the expected EV.
This is why it’s so important to keep track of the EV for the casino offers that you’re engaged in and not just profits and losses. This will allow you to track the accuracy of the numbers that you’re expecting.
Very Specific Slot Prediction
Although Slots are the most efficient games to be used for High-Risk Casino Bonus, people tend to hesitate to use slots given their unpredictable nature coupled with the fact that standard EV calculators are not able to provide a specific prediction.
However, the EV Maximiser can specifically show how each slot offer can be profitable based on the slot machine database (900 slot machines RTP & Variance entries, which are all pre-programmed) This fact gives you enough confidence to go for it.
Price
It is £49.99 + VAT, which is just a one-off payment (although the payment is £, this calculator can be used for any casino bonuses offered anywhere in the world).
Casino Calculator
Training
You will receive good training on casino bonuses related to key subjects as below;
Calculator Quality
As briefly shown previously, the range of the variables you can input into the Casino Calculator is very vast & highly sophisticated.
I use the Beating Bonus Calculator which is relatively sophisticated. But Robert lists the following edge of his calculator over the Beating Bonus Calculator
- This calculator only includes known games. Not slots which is what most will be using casino bonuses and an EV calc for.
- It also doesn’t factor in the time taken or what kind of bonus it is
- Our calculator includes 4 types of bonuses (with some variation in those types too). Blended wagers, Refund on losses = cash used first, wager then bonuses, win bonus.
- Our calculator has multiple different paytables (BJ, Roulette Low, Roulette High, Slots (Low/Med/High), Bingo) that allow us to simulate almost any bonus
- Our calculator can account for win caps, sticky bonuses, and whether cash bets count towards rollover or not.
- Our calculator calculates EV/hour
- We have some advanced features like withdrawing after wagering and accounting for a withdrawal fee.
- We don’t require the user to know Standard Deviation and Final Bet: Initial Bet ratio. We have the tables built-in.
Offer List
Every day, the program updates the Offers in the List Format by New Customer Offers & Existing Customer Offers and in the Calendar Format.
Let’s see how you will select an offer & how you examine it with the Calculator.
Offers List Format
The page shows all offers / new customer offers/existing customer offers (reload offers) as below.
Let’s see the new customer offer, Casino Heroe’s 100% Deposit Bonus. When you click ‘Info’, you will be navigated to the offer details;
Based on the T&C, you input the key variables into the calculator. After the instant 200,000 simulations (within a second), you will see the results below;
Calendar Format – Daily Offers
Let’s see another example from the Calendar Format list where you check all the available offers each day like below;
Let’s pick the Bet365 20% refund offer, click the box with the arrow in the above screenshot, you will be navigated to the offer details;
To visit the Bet365 offer page, click ‘Claim Offer’, then you will be taken to the page conveniently;
After you input key variables based on the offer’s T&C, the calculator will show you the above Results;
How To Read Results
See the following that gives you a better understanding of the above key results;
- Chance Of Profits & Chance Of Cash Bets Profit: The difference is applicable for the kinds of offers where you can make a profit with cash or bust and then make a profit with a bonus. It’s calculated as a percentage of simulations that end in a net profit (or that end in a net profit without touching a bonus).
- Max Advised Risk: Given the chance of profit/busting. Max risk is calculated so that if someone were to bet their whole bank the advised increments their chance of busting out completely would be very small. The exact chance figure used depends on the profitability of the offer (ie, a risk of £100 offer with an EV of £2 has a lower acceptable risk than a risk of £100 with an EV of £300). There are also some sensible mins/maxes in place so that we aren’t advising people to risk more than 7.5% of their bank even on a profitable offer that has an 80% chance of profit.
- Bust Rate: This does not appear in the Results but simply = 100% – the chance of profit %
Pricing
There are 2 options Essential: £59.99 / year and Essentials & Daily Offers: £69.99 for the first month and £9.99 / month.
Unlike EV Maximiser, it’s a subscription service therefore not a one-time payment but the yearly or monthly fee is charged based on the best offers listing & updating which gives you a good value.
The difference between the 2 options is the number of new customer offers and the availability of reload offers.
Online Casino Ultimate Sign-Up Methods
5 Key Tactics
People should know the best casino sign-up strategy before taking up the popular No Deposit Bonus (NDB) easily. I would urge you to first take a look at the 5 Most Profitable Casino Sign-Up Methods, which cover;
Best Online Casino Lists Worldwide
You may want to explore the following 6 lists of the best gambling sites which can satisfy each player’s unique needs;
- For those who think much of their privacy, the List of Best Anonymous Bitcoin Casinos & Bonuses will be very useful.
- For Global players, make the best use of the “Best Crypto Casinos & Bonuses Latest List” which could possibly secure your retirement financial freedom (see how in the Crypto Casino pros & cons section).
- For European (including UK & Ireland) players, you may want to go through the “List of Most Trusted Best Online Casinos in Europe” based on 4 key critical criteria.
- For US players, see “World Best Offshore Betting Sites Offers” which is based on sportsbook criteria but they are all-in-one sites including casinos & poker.
- For Poker players, you need “Best Crypto Poker Sites – Latest Soft List to Prey Fishes” to beat the weak players hard.
- For High Rollers accepting high-risk, Casino High Roller Bonus List with High-Risk Management shows the highest online bonuses.
Casino Bonus EV Calculator Conclusion
As repeatedly said, high-risk casino bonus hunting is not for everyone but for only a handful of math experts who are not necessarily able to compute any complicated formula but can identify & use the proper calculator.
Assessing & selecting the right offer is the key factor of success, and no human being can manually compare several offers, identify which slot game to play, and know exactly how to proceed through hundreds & millions of simulations.
Only the advanced highly sophisticated casino calculator listed in this guide can achieve the above and give you the best possible chance of getting winnings you can withdraw.
So, many of you wonder which Casino Bonus Calculator to use, what I would suggest are;
- EV Maximiser: Any Player In The World & Matched Bettors who want to pursue casino offers, and appropriate especially for those who are currently subscribing to matched betting package services that list available casino offers.
- Casino Calculator: Any Player In The World But Suitable for UK players since the majority of listed offers are aimed at UK Residents, and also appropriate, especially for those who are not interested in matched betting but focusing on casino offers, gubbed in many sports bookies or don’t subscribe matched betting package service.
Let me summarize the essentials to succeed in high-risk casino bonus hunting as follows;
- Chose a reputable casino rather than taking any attractive offers relentlessly to avoid any unpaid situation.
- Don’t save time reading and understanding the T&C of each casino offer which is basically unique in each offer.
- Given the relatively high stake amount involved, check any unclear requirements in the T&C via Live Chat or E-mail and save those scripts in the case of any unpleasant surprise.
- Select the offer that gives you enough statistical advantages based on the accurate EV assessment that includes Time Efficiency to decide it is worthwhile.
- Use the right casino bonus EV calculator that allows you to make the right decisions.
Lastly, allow me to share our betting principle. Gambling is For Losers. We use Advantage Gambling (Play), which means we Don’t count on Luck but solely rely on Mathematical Advantage.
The 6 Advantage Plays we employ is probably the only surest method for ordinary people to beat bookmakers & casinos. For sports betting, we use Matched Betting / Sports Arbitrage / Value Bets On Proven Software, Tipsters & Systems to lock in a profit or consistently earn profits for the long term.
With that said, one of our policies is “Betting On Luck Is For Losers, Stop Gamble Betting But Bet on Only +EV (Expected Value)To Win Reliably. It is effectively our way to promote Responsible Gambling under the regulation, and we strongly support GamCare
As our name GEM (Global Extra Money) implies, we strive to help Our Readers From All Over The World to Make Extra Income Consistently & Reliably. Therefore, we have issued :
In these documents, you will find the specific methods that enable people from almost all countries to make the best use of the lucrative offshore advantage gambling opportunities you may have overlooked.
Hope this report will help pave the way for you to make additional income on the side successfully.
Good Luck!!
Joshua Walker (bio)
Editor – Global Extra Money (GEM)
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