- Casino Expected Value Betting
- Casino Expected Value Betting – Use Bonus
- Casino Expected Value Betting – Games To Play
- Casino Expected Value Betting – Is Casino Bonus Still Worth?
- Online Casino Expected Value – Useful Resources
Casino Expected Value Betting
Unfortunately, we can’t win online casinos due to the house edge.
Casino expected value betting is all about finding the betting opportunity that provides you with a positive EV (expected value) which is the only sure way to beat the casino for the long term.
So, let’s see how we find a positive EV bet.
Odds & House Edge
Firstly, see the below info-graphics produced by Casino UK that explains the meaning of the Odds;
Casino House Edge
In all the casino games (with a certain exception in Video Porker games) there is House Edge that makes you certainly lose in the long term.
It’s not the casino’s cheating or manipulation at all. The casino is a profit aiming business and it’s absolutely fair for them to set a business model to cover their business cost & reasonable profit as any other usual business does.
The below infographics (the same source) briefly explains how the house edge is built-in by using the Roulette case;
Remember, mathematically you can’t win a casino for the long term due to the house edge. I am saying the long term. For the short term yes you have chances to win due to the Variance which is a dependence on luck, that is so-called gambling.
We’re not doing gambling but Expected Value Betting. Therefore our aim is not to beat the casino game but focusing on the bet with a positive expected value.
A very quick explanation about EV. Expected value is a concept in probability describing the average outcome of a random event.
This means it’s the basis of determining the long-term profitability of betting. Simply, positive +EV is profitable over the long term, and the bigger the more profit.
Therefore as long as you take the offers with Positive EV you will surely beat the casino in Long Term. So, you have to focus on how to achieve Positive EV by learning the basic tactics of each game.
So, Expected Value Betting is Placing Bet with Positive EV.
Let’s see how we can identify such a Positive EV casino betting opportunity.
Casino Expected Value Betting – Use Bonus
In calculating EV in Casino games, you need 2 variables;
- House Edge
- Total Wager Amount you plan to bet
Let’s say you play Blackjack of 3% house edge, and you wager £100 in total, you will theoretically lose £3. Variance plays a lot for a small wager, it may not be £3 but much bigger or smaller.
But when the wager amount (to be precise the number of playing games) becomes large such as £10,000 ( £10 x 1,000 times play), the loss will get closer to 3% (see the calculation formula later).
In short, you can identify Positive Expected Value Bet only when you use a bonus.
As said, due to the house edge, all the casino games are negative EV like the above example, but when the bonus comes in, the rule of the game becomes completely different.
Many people usually spend & lose without knowing the real value of a casino bonus.
As illustrated in the below image, the casino offers several types of bonuses. But we need to carefully select the ones which bring about positive expected value bet.
Casino Bonus Sign-Up Tactics
Casino Bonus Expected Value Calculation
You need to assess which casino bonus offer will provide you with a positive EV. So, in order to calculate the EV, you need 3 variables;
- Bonus Amount
- WR (Wager Requirements) – this is a key element for bonus clearance. Many casinos give you very generous bonuses such as “500% match to your Deposit”, namely if you deposit £100, you will be given £500 instantly. However, you have to wager the 20X rollover on your deposit + bonus (this is called WR) before you can withdraw any of your balance. This means if you have a £600 deposit & bonus, you have to bet £12,000 on Casino games before you withdraw any money. The casino expects you to lose all the money before completing this WR.
- House Edge
With that information, you can tell if any gambling bonus could be profitable or not with the following formula;
EV = Bonus (£) – WR Amounts (£) x House Edge (%)
Let’s apply the above examples of 500% bonus by playing Blackjack; EV = £500 – (£12,000) x 3% = £140 So you have a Positive EV of £140, thus you are able to make Expected Value Betting from this offer.
It means you will not lose but surely win long term as long as you keep taking this offer.
This is how you assess each bonus offer with the basic EV formula.
We have customized value calculation methods for different bonus types based on the level of the Risk / Reward. Please see the bottom of this document to check the list of specific instructions on each bonus type.
Casino Expected Value Betting – Games To Play
Instruction on Expected Value Betting for Major Casino Games
Our primary objective is efficiently extracting casino bonuses for busy people rather than enjoying playing games, it’s wise to focus on fewer games and get used to them. I list below 3 games simply because;
- The lowest or Relatively low house edge
- By far the most popular with simple rules (especially Slots)
The key tactics applying to all 3 games is to reduce the variance as much as possible and make your loss close to the house edge.
This means basically you should play as many games as possible with minimum stake/game unless otherwise required, which is the basis of expected value betting.
Key Direction for +EV
Chose Single decks rather than multiple decks.
Because it improves your chance of getting a Blackjack hand (aside from the detail probability calculation, the 8-deck game’s successful drawing of blackjack is 98% of the single-deck game).
To determine the exact house edge you plan to play, go Wizard of Odds’ Blackjack House Edge Calculator.
Playing Tactics for +EV
Always use Blackjack Perfect Strategy.
It allows us to make the optimal decisions based on the cards we have and what the dealer is showing. See the below table that exhibits your action to be taken for every occasion.
All you need to do is to keep the table while playing and follow it.
Don’t misunderstand this is not a winning tactic but the best tactics to make your plays close to the lowest possible house edge (say down to around 0.3%).
This means you will still not win for the long term but ending up with the lowest house edge.
Simply put, reducing variance is all about our objective in Advantage Play of Bonus Hunting and the Blackjack’s very low house edge among all games makes perfect sense to do it.
For the specific instruction of how to play Blackjack with the real example, go 3 Most Popular Casino Games – Technique to Rake Cash from Risk-Free Bonus.
Key Direction for +EV
There are 2 main versions, European & American. Must choose European because the house edge is half of American as seen in the below illustration.
Play Tactics for +EV
Basically, bet on Double, means The Even Money Bets namely;
- Red or Black
- Even or Odd
- Low (1 – 18) or (19 – 36)
, because it is the lowest house edge.
Some casino prohibits you to keep playing the Double bet during the WR (Wager Requirement) stage. Then you may use Treble bets, our specific instruction for each bonus case will explain the details.
3) Slot Machine
Remember the house edge is not as low as the table games.
The reason why I list Slot as one of the 3 selected games is based on the fact that slots are the undisputed kings of online casinos. It accounts for around 70% of all gaming revenue.
Besides, many casino bonus offers are with Slot (restricted only to Slot to claim bonus) such as “Free Spins”, therefore avoiding Slot will miss many lucrative opportunities.
Key Direction for +EV
Try to pick high RTP (Return To Players).
RTP describes % payback to players, so if it says 90%, meaning that over time the machine will keep about 10% of all money bet and will return the other 90% to players in wins.
The % is just the flip side of the house edge. You may evaluate the RTP % as;
Superb: 98% < / Excellent: 97% – 98% / Great 95% – 97% / Acceptable 93% – 95% / Low: > 93%
Most slots have the RTP listed in their game rules or pay tables, for example, Betfair Casino is as below;
Or just Goggle with for example “Ocean Princess Slot RTP” (Ocean Princess Slot is one of the highest RTP Slots with 99.1% RTP, Just FYI).
In case you can’t find RTP information, you may want to avoid that slot.
Generally speaking, the slots with the blockbuster title such as Jurassic Park, X-men & Iron Man 2, etc must be relatively low RTP because the developers need to pay substantial license fee which should be recovered in some way – yes, recovering from you players as the lower RTP;
Play Tactics for +EV
Just a common sense first, in the slot game, you will only win payouts on lines that you bet on.
If you only bet on 10 of 25 pay-lines and the winning combination falls on a line that you didn’t, in fact, bet on (or activate), you get nothing for that combination.
Thus as a general rule of thumb, it is in the players’ best interests to activate all pay-lines on every spin. Not doing so could result in missing out on progressives or other big wins.
As the basic principle to reduce the variance applies, the general approach is;
- Select Minimum Stakes
- Select Maximum Lines
For the spoon-fed instruction of how to play slot with the real example, go 3 Most Popular Casino Games – Technique To Rake Cash From Risk-Free Bonus.
I focused on 3 Games in this document but from purely Lowest House Edge Game, Video Poker & Craps beat these 3 games.
I also introduced basic tactics on Poker, Craps & Baccarat as a Spinoff document, if you’re interested, please access Smart Ways To Use Top 3 Lowest House Edge Games To Extract Casino Bonus.
List Of High RTP Slots
For your convenience, some of the extremely low House Edge slots of which RTP is over 99% are;
- Goblin’s Cave (Playtech) – 99.3% RTP Reels/Paylines: 3×3/3 Min/Max bet: £0.10/£5.00
- Ocean Princess (Playtech) – 99.1% RTP Reels/Paylines: 3×5/5 Min/Max bet: £0.10/125.00
- Ugga Bugga (Playtech) – 99.1 RTP Reels/Paylines: 3×10/10 Min/Max bet: £0.10/£250.00
- Mega Joker Jackpot (NetEnt) – 99% RTP Reels/Paylines: 3×3/5 Min/Max bet: £0.10-£1.00
- Nemo’s Voyage (WMS) – 99% RTP Reels/Paylines: 5×4/40 Min/Max bet: £0.40/£200.00
- Ooh Aah Dracula (Barcrest) – 99% RTP Reels/Paylines: 5×3/10 Min/Max bet: £0.10/£500.00
However, you may not always find these slots in casino sites, or even if you find, some casinos limit the WR contribution or entirely exclude it from the WR contribution.
Then, you may consider;
BTW, the RTP of the most popular slots you can find in almost every casino (excluding blockbuster titles or celebrities such as The Dark Knight or Michael Jackson King of Pop, etc) are;
- Starburst (NetEnt) – 96.1% RTP Reels/Paylines: 5×3/10 Min/Max bet: £0.10/£100.00
EV Maximiser – Slot Machine Mathematical Bet Simulator
Click the above image then you will be navigated to the video Mike explains about how it works. In short, it does all the calculations to work out;
- The estimated value
- Chance of busting
- Profit per hour and the average amount of wagering completion
- A slots machine database with over 800 machines including the house edge and variance level of each game
It’s a very useful tool and essential for casino bonus raking because many casino offers involve Slot Machines. Remember, this is an advanced strategy with high risk, so unless you feel comfortable, put it on the back burner.
If you’re ready, you may want to try EV Maximiser in 32Red (£10 No Deposit Bonus + 150% 1st deposit bonus) as one of the Most Trusted Best Online Casino in Europe.
Casino Expected Value Betting – Is Casino Bonus Still Worth?
Some sites say casino bonus hunting is no longer a viable method.
Wrong, although it’s true that it’s getting tougher lately because the casino set more strict requirements for the bonuses such as higher WR, as explained, using the casino bonus is the only method to achieve positive expected value betting.
Therefore it’s definitely a viable strategy.
Besides, let me share a bit about the Online Casino market status.
The online casino has been growing rapidly supported by many reasons such as data below;
And Online Gambling Market shows the big number of online gamblers & their average spending time per day as below image;
However, we’re still in the infant stage when it comes to the growth of online gambling. The below image shows the rapid growth of the market but indicates that only 1% of the gamblers play online means it has still huge potential for further growth;
So, the online casino has been and will keep growing which gives you another reason why casino bonus expected value betting is a viable tactic to pursue.
Security & Fairness – Base of Casino Expected Value Betting
BTW, the growing market implies a growing number of new online casinos, which must include a lot of untrusted ones.
Therefore, security is the utmost priority together with fairness when you play online casinos with real money.
Fairness is the point if the game is not manipulated by the site to let you lose with unreasonable house edge etc.
All reputable online casinos need to use RNG (Random Number Generation) which is an algorithm used in computing when an outcome needs to be as random as possible.
One way to know if the particular casino site is fair and secure is to check if the casino has the eCOGRA seal of approval, or whether it bears the logo of some other independent auditing agency such as iTech Labs or GLI.
Such information is usually displayed at the bottom of a casino’s website.
By clicking on the appropriate logo you can basically view the report and certification of the testing agency.
Check the Most Trusted Best Online Casino in Europe, basically, all the casinos there are verified by one of the above auditing agencies.
Boys You Need to Do Expected Value Vetting
Finally, just a few facts related to online gambling may interest you.
The below image shows the UK data though I feel it more or less applies to many countries;
When it comes to only the Bingo category, the rate between males & females becomes completely opposite, over 80% comes from females (see the details in Bingo Bonus General Strategy).
It’s really a pity that people lose so much money in gambling, but you may be impressed with the fact;
Since the data source is different, the man / female rate number is slightly different from the previous image though the point is Female outsmarts Male in terms of the winning in gambling.
So, guys what do you say? It’s time for the man to regain gambling pride while ladies want to make it better.
Expected value betting with a bonus is a sure way to do it.
Online Casino Expected Value – Useful Resources
Online Casino Bonus Expected Value Betting – Process & All Relevant Guides
Here, let me summarize the general process & tactics related to the casino bonus as follows;
- After you finish reading this document, suggest strongly go through 5 Most Profitable Casino Sign Up Methods – Stay Away From No Deposit Bonus to grab the overall sign-up prioritization & avoid missing juicy opportunities.
- Then, move to read Smart Ways To Use Top 3 Lowest House Edge Games To Extract Casino Bonus, which is a spin-off tactical paper of this document.
- Once you complete the above 2, you may want to start conquering the casino bonus based on the following instructions ;
- Startup with How To Guarantee Real Cash from Casino Bonus Cashback Sites,Check the Cashback site, and chose the Casino sites you can receive cashback by signing up via Cashback Sites, which is completely Risk-Free + Guaranteed Profit.
- After exploiting all the Cashback sign-ups, move to No Risk (if you still like NDB – No Deposit Bonus) / Extremely Low Risk by learning below specific tactics & step-by-step instructions to rake the various bonuses;
- Lastly, after you get used to the approaches here and are fully aware of the Risk vs Reward of Online Casino; Casino High Roller Bonus List with High-Risk Management, which is Not Risk-Free but High Risk thus you need to be disciplined especially in money management. Having said that, unless you’re ready for that, it’s better to focus on the low-risk opportunities.
- Bear it in mind, since all the online casino sites are very sensitive to the activities that exploit their bonus offers they often change the T&C. Therefore, it’s imperative for you to check the latest rules before you start using the method & depositing your money.
- Importantly, your apparent bonus hunting activities may trigger a red flag and your account could be closed as being labeled as a bonus abuser. Thus take a careful approach explained in each instruction.
Best Gambling Sites
You may want to explore the following 4 lists of the best gambling sites which can satisfy each player’s unique needs;
Finally, allow us to share a bit about the betting policy.
Gambling is For Losers. We use Advantage Play and pursue Expected Value Betting. We Don’t count on Luck but Solely rely on Mathematical Advantage.
Therefore as said, an online Casino Bonus is not just fun but a juicy money-making opportunity on the side.
The 6 Advantage Plays we employ are most probably the only surest method to beat sportsbooks & casinos for anybody.
When it comes to casinos, we solely resort to Expected Value Betting to overcome the casino’s house edge, as we explained in this guide.
With that said, allow me to reiterate that one of our policies is “Betting On Chance Is For Losers, Stop Gamble Betting But Bet on Only +EV ToWin Reliably“.
We would like our readers to exploit such reliable money-making opportunities as many as possible.
If you have any inquiries or need any help from us, please contact us anytime (don’t worry, we will not charge you any fee, everything is free here).
Joshua Walker (bio)
Editor – Global Extra Money (GEM)