- What Are Risk-Free Bet Offers?
- Underlying Method
- Risk-Free Bet Offers – Lock-in Profit Approach
- How Exactly Does Underlay Work
- Step By Step Process With Real Example
- Risk-Free Bets Offer – Wrap Up
What Are Risk-Free Bet Offers?
Risk-Free Bet = Money Back On Losing Bet
A risk-free bet is a popular bookmaker’s offer often expressed as “If you lose your first bet we refund you”. The risk-free bet offers are quite popular not only as a signup promotion to new customers like below Paddy Power example;
but also reload offers to existing players like the below;
Sky Bet offers Cheltenham Festivals, Risk-Free Bet every day: Coral offers Money Back in the World Snooker Championship. If your first settled bet of the day is a loser, you get a refund of up to £/€10. It is available every day for 2 Weeks:
Typical Mistake Related To Risk-Free Bet Offers
Since the condition of the offer is IF YOUR BET LOSES, the matched betting newbies tend to think “placing the bet at high odds with the hope of losing it to get the refund” is the only way to deal with it.
Yes, probability-wise, betting on long odds will give you a better chance to achieve your objective, and in many cases, people successfully get a refund. But occasionally your bet wins, then you have no benefits from this offer.
Therefore, from the perspective of guaranteeing profit, it’s not the best tactic. So, I will share the technique to guarantee the profits from the risk-free bet offer.
Matched Betting Quick Recap
We use matched betting methods to lock in profits. In case you’re completely new to this method, suggest taking a look at Matched Betting For Dummies.
But allow me to recap how it works very briefly. If you are a regular matched bettor, just skip this section and jump to the next.
Matched betting is all about turning the bookmaker’s offer often in the form of a Free Bet into Real Cash Profit. The simplest example is Bet XX Get YY Free Bet like 888 Sports Sign-Up Offer. So, first, we have to Bet XX, which is the so-called Qualifying Bet. It involves;
- 2 transactions of Back (bet on win) at Bookmaker & Lay (bet on NOT win, means both lose & draw like football match case) the appropriate stakes at Betting Exchange such as Betfair (you may want to use Betfair Alternatives) or Smarkets so that you cover all outcomes.
- No matter what the event’s result will be, your losing & winning will cancel out each other. In real practice, usually, 2 bets are not perfectly offset due to the odds difference & exchange commission therefore you make a small loss called Qualifying Loss.
- However, now you get YY Free Bet. Then you repeat the same transactions but use the free bet at the bookmaker. Since Free Bet is not your money but free money, therefore it (free bet value – qualifying loss) will become your net profit.
- The success factor is how to minimize this qualifying loss.
- In the case of Risk-Free Bet Offers, you will receive the free bet ONLY IF your qualifying bet at the bookmaker loses.
BTW, many people imagine matched betting is for only UK & Ireland, wrong,
- this approach enables everybody in the world including US citizens to make decent profits from this risk-free betting technique
- for Germany, Austria, and Switzerland residents, suggest this program that focuses on these 3 countries
- when it comes to Australia, this service is supposed to be the best.
As seen from the above process, the betting exchange is essential for matched betting. It’s critical to adopt the right approach toward the betting exchanges from the beginning, which will affect your long-term profit.
If you have not had an account, this report shows all the top 4 betting exchanges’ latest sign-up offers & how to extract cash risk-free from each offer including Betfair’s £100 Free Bet, which is supposed to be one of the best offers in the industry.
In case you can’t access any betting exchanges in your country, then don’t worry use this method, which enables you to access to Betfair market.
Risk-Free Bet Offers – Lock-in Profit Approach
We use Underlay tactics to guarantee profits. For full details of the underlay, suggest going through Sportsbook Rollover Bonus Strategy – Underlay Betting.
Underlay is simply to bet a smaller lay amount than the amount required in the standard matched betting, which results in;
- When the back wins, more profit for bookmaker with less liability in exchange, which compensates the no refund for a bookmaker
- When the back loses, less profit in exchange with no profit in the bookmaker, which is supplemented by the bookmaker’s refund
How Exactly Does Underlay Work
The oddsmatcher looks as below. It’s the order of ideal matched betting, which means the first one is the most profitable event. Let’s pick up the Horse Racing Pontefract Win Market (originally, I wrote this guide in 2016, therefore, the example is old but all the theory & process shared here is perfectly applicable now, FYI).
Select Flash City between Boylesports & Betfair (BTW, the examples I used in this guide are relatively old but the basic principle/theory can apply permanently, which means the method we use in this guide can be used in any current risk-free bet offers as long as the conditions are the same);
You click the Info box at the right end, and then you will be navigated into the detail calculation screen as below;
Stake Not Returned
Although your bet is not a Free Bet but a Qualifying Bet, which is supposed to be Not SNR, thus usually you have to select Qualifier in the right top selections.
But, in this particular case, you need to select SNR (Stake Not Returned) which gets the software automatically calculates UNDERLAYING Simulation. By setting underlay calculation, if you win at the bookmaker you will not receive a free bet but since your loss at the exchange is smaller, you will ensure profit.
Conversely, if your bet at the bookmaker loses your win at the exchange is smaller but since you will get a free bet at the bookmaker thus you will again ensure profit.
Possible Scenarios & Profit / Loss
So the possible scenario & profit/loss are;
- Flash City wins, you get an £80 return but can’t get any refund in Boylesports and lose £71.11, therefore you will have a Net Profit of £8.89
- Flash City loses, you get £9.36 in Betfair but lose your original stake of £10 that will be fully refunded in Boylesports, thus your net profit will be £9.36
- So, no matter whether Flash City wins or loses, you get an average of £9.125 = (£8.89 + £9.36) / 2 which is a guaranteed profit rather than counting on the luck of Flash City’s loss.
Given the above mechanics, underplayed qualifying bet instead of matching it completely allows you to guarantee the profit on any outcome under the Risk-Free offer.
Step By Step Process With Real Example
I’ll show you how to do it by using the example of Dafabet (“£30 Risk-Free Bet” to new customers, this example is also the old one but the principle & process works exactly as explained, BTW for Dafabet see Dafabet Sports – Sharp Friendly Asian Giant if you’re interested);
Firstly, check the process required and off course T&C (Terms & Conditions);
So all you need to do is to deposit £30 (to get the maximum refund) and place a £35 bet on the event with odds of 1.5 or greater. After you deposit £30, you need to look for the appropriate event in Odds Matching Software, and we are using SNR calculation, as a basic theory of SNR, the higher the odds the better your profit. You can set the filter & bookmaker selection in;
For, the odds filter, you may set it as;
Then you will see;
Obviously, a 100% rating (at the left end column) is the best choice, let’s choose the top event of Sigo Horse Racing Win market Niven with Betfair, when you click the right end Info box, you will be navigated to;
Make Sure You Select SNR Mode
You need to set a £30 stake by choosing the Stake Not Returned button at the top right. So the above calculator shows an average of £26.67. The scenarios are;
- If Niven wins you get £240 in Dafabet without any refund and lose £213.33 in Betfair, thus £26.67 will be your net profit.
- If Niven loses, you get £26.67 in Betfair (you lay £28.07 and deducting 5% Betfair commission is your profit in Betfair) and lose £30 of your own stake that will be 100% refunded by Dafabet.
After confirming the lay amount and profit, all you need to do is just place the qualifying bet at Dafabet & Betfair quickly before the odds change.
I’ll not show the placing bet process here. It is pretty standard practice. Go Starting Guide: New Customer Offer (2): Qualifying Process Spoon-Fed Instruction, if you want to ensure everything.
BTW, the odds matching software I have been showing here is the bonus bagging free odds matcher, which is Free.
If you want to make extra money seriously from matched betting (say over £1,000 every month on the side), you may want to consider Matched Betting Premium Subscription Services. The top 3 in the industry are Outplayed (ex Profit Accumulator), Oddsmonkey & Profit Maximiser (as mentioned above).
One of the benefits of using them is the 0% Betting Exchange Commission thanks to their partnership with Smarkets, Matchbook & Betdaq. Only with this, you can cover years of their subscription fee. When it comes to which service you should take, check our Comparison of these 3 services & software, which will help you decide the best-fitted one for you.
Just a cautionary comment. I always emphasize reading T&C carefully. The above Dafabet sets 1.5 minimum odds. This minimum odds requirement is set in almost all offers. Therefore you may not overlook it. However, sometimes it also restricts sports categories like Super Lenny; It says Excluding Horse and Harness Racing. It is a bit unusual for a new player offer, thus you may possibly overlook it. Therefore it’s quite important to check T&C thoroughly every time you start a new offer;
Risk-Free Bets Offer – Wrap Up
Prepare For Gubbing
Finally, if you take too much value from the bookmakers, you are most likely to be gubbed, which means your betting account will be restricted.
Actually, it’s just a matter of time before most of the soft bookies limit your account if you do matched betting without any precautionary actions.
So, we have prepared the following 2 guides – One is Before Restriction, The Other One is After Restriction;
After taking all the above measures, you may want to consider moving up to the next sports trading level of value betting while exploiting the bookies’ free bet via matched betting. The following are proven methods which can be used by basically anyone in the world;
If you have any inquiries or need any help from us, please contact us anytime (don’t worry, we will not charge you any fee, everything is free here).
Good Luck (Luck always seems to be against the man who depends on it – Anonymous)!!
Joshua Walker (bio)