How To Make Money from Red Card Refund Offers
Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes
Turn Football Red Card Misery Into Tasty Profits. We Show You How To Make Red Card Refund Offer Profitable Without Any Risk via Simple Back & Lay technique!!
The “Show” box underneath displays Full Contents & Jump Links for your convenience.
- 1. What’s Red Card Refund Offer?
- 2. Red Card Refund Profit: Our Underlying Method
- 3. Process To Get Profit from Red Card Refund Offer
- 4. Red Card Refund Wrap Up – Change Your Mind-set
What’s Red Card Refund Offer?
Red Card in Football
In the first place, do you know what is red card? According to wiki;
The specific sports we discuss here is Football. The penalty cards issued in football comes from misconduct, and there are 2 card types of yellow card & red card, depending on the level of misconduct. The below Venn Diagram in wiki shows the relationship between fouls and misconduct in association football, with examples, just FYI
So, when a player is given a red card by a referee, he (she) has to leave the field of play immediately because he (she) did some serious misconduct. The red card can be issued straight away from just 1 time serious misconduct or 2 yellow card from less serious misconduct will turn into the red card.
Red Card Refund Offers
Then, what sort of offer are we talking about? Red Card Refund is a bookmaker’s reload offer to the existing customer, like the claim of “We will refund your losing bet if Red Card is shown in the match" in Football game. 188Bet is the one that often uses this promotion such as Tottenham v Chelsea match (BTW 188Bet shut down UK & Ireland presence in 2019, just FYI);
Many people tend to think that Red Card occurrence + Lose Bet is No Chance. Thus Not Even Considering this offer. However, from mathematical view point it’s a very profitable offer and worth pursuing. This is the power of Advantage Play and Value Bet. (see more in the wrap up at the end) As long as you keep taking such Positive EV (Expected Value) bet, you will be no chance to lose money but surely make money average in long-term.T he above offer’s refund limit is £25. Then you can earn potentially around £18 from this offer with just less than 10 minutes.
There are several bookies offering the similar promotion. You can basically apply this approach to the offers claiming " Refund If Red Card Shown" regularly offered by BetVictor, TLC Bet, unibet 10Bet etc;
However, read each offer’s T&C carefully before placing any money because it may give you slightly different requirement. For example, the below 188bet Tottenham vs Chelsea limit the betting via Mobile ONLY, so don’t overlook such tiny but critical requirement;
Red Card Refund Profit: Our Underlying Method
As said, our underlying technique to maximize the potential profit by heading the risk is Matched Betting. Anybody who are familiar with the matched betting, please skip this section.
Matched Betting Recap
For those who are not familiar with the matched betting at all, firstly suggest take a look at Matched Betting For Dummies, where you will find every basic about the matched betting. However, I’ll briefly explain how it works by using very common new player sign-up offer of “Bet £10 Get £20 Free Bets";
What we do are;
- 2 transactions of Back (bet on win) £10 on Team or Player A at 188Bet & Lay (bet on NOT win) appropriate £ (stake can be calculated by free software) on the same Team or Player A at Betting Exchange like Betfair so that you cover all outcomes.
- Regardless of the outcome, your losing & winning will cancel out each other. In the real practice, usually, 2 bets are not perfectly offset due to the odds difference & exchange commission. Therefore you make a small loss called Qualifying Loss.
- But now, you get £20 Free Bets. You repeat the exact same process but using the free bet for the back bet at 188Bet. Then, this time free bet value (minus qualifying loss) will become your net profit.
- You may be able to extract around £15-17 pure profit from this offer.
- Success factor is how to minimize the qualifying loss by selecting the player whose odds gap (between 188 & Betfair) is the narrowest. You can use Free Odds Matcher to locate such opportunities. For the detail step-by-step process, take a look at Free Matched Bet Starting Guide (2) – How To Sign-Up & Place Qualifying Bet. We use William Hill sign-up bonus (Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bets)as an example in this document, which can exactly apply to 188Bet.
BTW, many people imagine matched betting is for only UK & Ireland, wrong, by using this approach everybody in the world including US citizens can make decent profits from this risk-free betting technique.
As you see in the above process, betting exchange is essential for matched betting. There are 4 established betting exchanges as below;
In case you are not familiar with the betting exchanges, the below 2 guides will be of good help;
In case you have not had any betting exchange accounts, the above guide shows all top 4 betting exchange latest sign-up offers & how to extract cash risk-free from each offer including Betfair £100 Free Bet, which is supposed to be one of the best offers in the industry, just FYI.
Besides, if you can’t access to any betting exchanges in your country, then don’t worry use this method, which enables you to access to Betfair market.
Anyhow, for those who have not opened SMarkets or not even a single bet exchange account, I prepared a step-by-step guide for your quick start. You can effortlessly extract cash from its sign-up bonus of £10 Risk-Free Bet. Actually, this is one of the easiest offers to lock-in profit in the industry. Please click “+" mark to open the instruction;
Process To Get Profit from Red Card Refund Offer
Firstly, Can’t We Guarantee Profit From Red Card Refund Offer?
Usually can’t because unlike bookmaker, you can hardly find Red Card Lay Market in betting exchange. Betfair occasionally open the market of “Sending Off". Actually I myself can’t think about any reasons that Player Is Sent Off other than “Red Card is Shown", anything bizarre could happen, therefore it’s safer to avoid laying Sending Off. Means, we can’t hedge by placing extra lay on Trigger bet, thus can’t always guarantee profit. For searching Guaranteed Profit in this type of offer, go How To Lock-In Profit on Trigger Bet with Extra Lay Spreadsheet.
How To Construct Matched Betting for Red Card Refund Offer
I’ll explain how to tackle this Red Card offer by using the below Champion’s League example (the example is relatively old but the process we take here can perfectly work in any similar red card refund offers).
“Champions League and Europa League Money Back Special up to €/£50 if a Red Card is Shown!
If a Red Card is shown during your selected match in any of the Champions League and Europa League games from Tuesday 22nd November 2016 to Thursday 24th November 2016 , we will refund all losing 1×2, First Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half Time / Full Time and Both Teams to Score, up to a maximum of €/£50 per match. The refunded stake will be credited as a free bet. “
You can use the simplest qualifying bet method which we used in the above sign-up offer method. Again, I’ll briefly show you by using the real example.
- Since we get refund from only losing bets in the event where a red card is shown, you may prefer to place your qualifying bets on selections that you don’t think will win.
- However, unlike the standard matched betting, we can’t make this offer completely Risk Free, thus the most critical direction is Minimizing the Qualifying Loss. Means you have to chose the match & market with the tightest odds between 188Bet & Exchange.
- You need to be careful for the qualified market, they specify “1×2, First Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half Time / Full Time and Both Teams to Score “, and usually, the tightest odds can be found in Match Result (1 x 2) or BTTS (Both Team To Score), FYI.
Example – Arsenal vs PSG
I use Arsenal vs PSG – “Arsenal Win" match odds since I found the narrow odds between 188Bets & Smarkets (exchange) in odds matcher as;
Since the maximum refund we can get is £50, set £50 as a back stake in the calculator (you will find the below calculating table by clicking the “i" icon in the above oddsmatcher) which shows;
- If Arsenal Wins, we lose £1.54
- If Arsenal Not Win and red card is not shown, we lose £1.54
- If Arsenal Not Win but red card is shown, we profit £48.46 (£50 refund – £1.54 qualifying loss)
Is It Worth?
In summary, we are risking £1.54 (this is why it’s not a completely risk free) to gain £48.46. This can be translated as 32.47 effective odds (£48.46 / £1.54 + 1), or your break even point is 32nd trial. In other words even if you keep Not Hitting Refund for 31 consecutive try but get refund in the 32nd trial you will still be profitable.
When it comes to the statistics of red card, in 2016-17 Premier League season, 12 red cards were issued in total out of total 120 matches (ESPN FC site). That is exactly 10%. So if you try this offer 30 times, you will theoretically hit the refund at least 3 time, or £145.38 profit. The math suggests it’s definitely a worth pursuing.
BTW, 10% implied probability of the red card is 10.00 decimal odds. However, bookmakers don’t seem to provide you with fair odds reflecting the actual numbers. See William Hill as below;
So Do You Want To Know The Result?
I always like this Passionate French Striker, Olivier Giroud. He received a Red Card;
, and the final result is Arsenal Not Win thus happy refund resulting £48.46 Pure Profit;
Red Card Refund Wrap Up – Change Your Mind-set
Incidentally, as our name Global Extra Money implies, we would like many people from all over the world to enjoy our methods as much as possible. Therefore, we have issued :
If you have any inquiry or need any help from us, please contact us anytime (don’t worry, we will not charge you any fee, everything is free here).
Joshua Walker (bio)