How To Earn Extra Money from Red Card Refund with 10 Minutes Work
Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes
Looking For Extra Money? Here is How To Earn Potentially £45 – £50 Profit by Structuring Simple Matched Betting on Red Card Refund Offer
Turn Red Card Misery Into Tasty Refund
- 1. Red Card Refund – Introduction
- 2. What’s Red Card Refund?
- 3. Red Card Refund Profit: Our Underlying Method
- 4. Can’t We Guarantee Profit From Red Card Refund Offer?
- 5. Process To Get Profit – 188 Bet Red Card Refund Offer
- 6. Red Card Refund Wrap Up – Change Your Mind-set
Red Card Refund – Introduction
We cover the following subjects in this report;
- What’s Red Card Refund?
- Red Card Refund Profit: Our Underlying Method
- Can’t We Guarantee Profit From Red Card Refund Offer?
- Process To Get Profit – 188Bet Red Card Refund Offer
- Red Card Refund Wrap Up – Change Your Mind-set
What’s Red Card Refund?
Red Card in Football
In the first place, do you know what is red card? According to wiki;
The specific sports we discuss here is Football. The penalty cards issued in football comes from misconduct, and there are 2 card types of yellow card & red card, depending on the level of misconduct. The below Venn Diagramm in wiki shows the relationship between fouls and misconduct in association football, with examples, just FYI
So, when a player is given a red card by a referee, he (she) has to leave the field of play immediately because he (she) did some serious misconduct. The red card can be issued straight away from just 1 time serious misconduct or 2 yellow card from less serious misconduct will turn into the red card.
Red Card Refund
Then, what sort of offer are we talking about? Red Card Refund is a bookmaker’s reload offer to the existing customer. Simply like the claim of “We will refund your losing bet if Red Card is shown in the match" in Football game. 188Bet is the one that often uses this promotion such as Tottenham v Chelsea match – please see the details in T&C section;
The above offer’s refund limit is £25. Then you can earn potentially around £18 from this offer with just less than 10 minutes.
Although I use 188Bet in this guide, there are also several bookies that offer the similar promotion. You can basically apply this approach to the offers claiming " Refund If Red Card Shown" such as below BetVictor, TLC Bet & unibet;
However, read each offer’s T&C carefully before placing any money because it may give you slightly different requirement. For example, the below 188bet Tottenham vs Chelsea limit the betting via Mobile ONLY, so don’t overlook such tiny but critical requirement;
Red Card Refund Profit: Our Underlying Method
As said, our underlying technique to maximize the potential profit by heading the risk is Matched Betting. Anybody who are familiar with the matched betting, please skip this section.
Matched Betting Recap
For those who are not familiar with the matched betting at all, firstly suggest take a look at Matched Betting For Dummies – 9 Essential Things You Should Know Before Staking Any Real Money;, where you will find every basic about the matched betting.
However, I’ll briefly explain how it works by using 188Bet New Player Sign-Up Offer. In fact, you can lock-in Profit at the time you open the account. The offers to new player is “Bet £10 Get £20 Free Bets";
What we do are;
- 2 transactions of Back (bet on win) £10 on Team or Player A at 188Bet Hill & Lay (bet on NOT win) appropriate £ (stake can be calculated by free software) on the same Team or Player A at Betting Exchange like Betfair so that you cover all outcomes.
- Regardless of the outcome, your losing & winning will cancel out each other. In the real practice, usually, 2 bets are not perfectly offset due to the odds difference & exchange commission. Therefore you make a small loss called Qualifying Loss.
- But now, you get £20 Free Bets. You repeat the exact same process but using the free bet for the back bet at 188Bet. Then, this time free bet value (minus qualifying loss) will become your net profit.
- You may be able to extract around £15-17 pure profit from this offer.
- Success factor is how to minimize the qualifying loss by selecting the player whose odds gap (between 188 & Betfair) is the narrowest. You can use Free Odds Matcher to locate such opportunities. For the detail step-by-step process, take a look at Free Matched Bet Starting Guide (2) – How To Sign-Up & Place Qualifying Bet. We use William Hill sign-up bonus (Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bets)as an example in this document, which can exactly apply to 188Bet.
As you see in the above process, betting exchange is essential for matched betting. Therefore, it’s critical to adopt the right approach toward the betting exchanges from the beginning, which will affect your long-term profit. Suggest you take a look at Bet Exchange – How To Sign-Up & Lock-In Profit Wisely With Best Offers, where you find the Smart Tactics on How To Use Which Bet Exchange in Which Occasion with spoon-fed like instructions.
We recommend SMarkets as a Core Betting Exchange for matched betting. Not Betfair, Why? Also show how important Matchbook is. Please go to the above document that explains the full rationale & comprehensive strategies to make the best use of all 4 key betting exchanges.
Anyhow, for those who have not opened SMarkets or not even a single bet exchange account, I prepared a step-by-step guide for your quick start. You can effortlessly extract cash from its sign-up bonus of £10 Risk-Free Bet. Actually, this is one of the easiest offers to lock-in profit in the industry. Please click “+" mark to open the instruction;
£2,500 Risk-Free Opportunities
BTW, Matched Betting is all about making the best use of bookmakers’ promotion, thus you need to open up bookies account as many as possible. Or let me put it in this way, you really want to rake the bookmakers’ offers risk-free via matched betting as much as possible. The important thing is that Don’t sign-up directly before you Click + To See Little Known Smart Method;
Can’t We Guarantee Profit From Red Card Refund Offer?
No, we can’t. Unlike bookmaker, in betting exchange, you can hardly find Red Card Lay Market. Betfair occasionally open the market of “Sending Off". Actually I myself can’t think about any reasons that Player Is Sent Off other than “Red Card is Shown", anything bizarre could happen, therefore it’s safer to avoid laying Sending Off. Means, we can’t hedge by placing extra lay on Trigger bet, thus can’t always guarantee profit. For searching Guaranteed Profit in this type of offer, go How To Lock-In Profit on Trigger Bet with Extra Lay Spreadsheet;
Process To Get Profit – 188 Bet Red Card Refund Offer
I’ll explain how to tackle this Red Card offer. I’m using the below Champion’s League example offered by 188Bet in Nov ’16.
“Champions League and Europa League Money Back Special up to €/£50 if a Red Card is Shown!
If a Red Card is shown during your selected match in any of the Champions League and Europa League games from Tuesday 22nd November 2016 to Thursday 24th November 2016 , we will refund all losing 1×2, First Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half Time / Full Time and Both Teams to Score, up to a maximum of €/£50 per match. The refunded stake will be credited as a free bet. see Full T&C "
How To Construct Matched Betting for 188Bet Red Card Refund Offer
You can use the simplest qualifying bet method which we used in the above sign-up offer method. Again, I’ll briefly show you by using the real example.
- Since we get refund from only losing bets in the event where a red card is shown, you may prefer to place your qualifying bets on selections that you don’t think will win.
- However, unlike the standard matched betting, we can’t make this offer completely Risk Free, thus the most critical direction is Minimizing the Qualifying Loss. Means you have to chose the match & market with the tightest odds between 188Bet & Exchange.
- You need to be careful for the qualified market, they specify “1×2, First Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half Time / Full Time and Both Teams to Score “, and usually, the tightest odds can be found in Match Result (1 x 2) or BTTS (Both Team To Score), FYI.
Example – Arsenal vs PSG
I use Arsenal vs PSG – “Arsenal Win" match odds since I found the narrow odds between 188Bets & Smarkets (exchange) in odds matcher as;
Since the maximum refund we can get is £50, set £50 as a back stake in the calculator (you will find the below calculating table by clicking the “i" icon in the above oddsmatcher) which shows;
- If Arsenal Wins, we lose £1.54
- If Arsenal Not Win and red card is not shown, we lose £1.54
- If Arsenal Not Win but red card is shown, we profit £48.46 (£50 refund – £1.54 qualifying loss)
Is It Worth?
In summary, we are risking £1.54 (this is why it’s not a completely risk free) to gain £48.46. This can be translated as 32.47 effective odds (£48.46 / £1.54 + 1), or your break even point is 32nd trial. In other words even if you keep Not Hitting Refund for 31 consecutive try but get refund in the 32nd trial you will still be profitable.
When it comes to the statistics of red card, in 2016-17 Premier League season, 12 red cards were issued in total out of total 120 matches (ESPN FC site). That is exactly 10%. So if you try this offer 30 times, you will theoretically hit the refund at least 3 time, or £145.38 profit. The math suggests it’s definitely a worth pursuing.
BTW, 10% implied probability of the red card is 10.00 decimal odds. However, bookmakers don’t seem to provide you with fair odds reflecting the actual numbers. See William Hill as below;
So Do You Want To Know The Result?
I always like this Passionate French Striker, Olivier Giroud. He received a Red Card;
, and the final result is Arsenal Not Win thus happy refund resulting £48.46 Pure Profit;
Red Card Refund Wrap Up – Change Your Mind-set
Many people tend to think that Red Card occurrence + Lose Bet is No Chance. Thus Not Even Considering this offer. However, from mathematical view point it’s a very profitable offer and worth pursuing. This is the power of Advantage Play and Value Bet. As long as you keep taking such Positive EV (Expected Value) bet, you will be no chance to lose money but surely make money average in long-term.
Finally, suggest take a look at the bottom of this page where you will find our Free Excellent Programme. It gives you specific guideline & instructions to achieve extra income using 6 Advantage Plays. The document is protected since it contains a lot of valuable methods & tools, so just fill-in your name & e-mail address then you will receive the password instantly.
If you have any inquiry or need any help from us, please contact us anytime (don’t worry, we will not charge you any fee, everything is free here).
Joshua Walker – Publisher of GEM (Global Extra Money)