6 Best Ways To Make Extra Money from Horse Betting 2nd Place Refund
Have you ever heard Horse Betting 2nd Place Refund? Do you think “Not For Me” or “Too Little Chance to Get It”? No, No, It’s a Very Profitable Offer, We Share The Best Horse Betting Tactics For It!!
Firstly, our aim of playing Sports Betting is to achieve Extra Money Consistently by focusing on how to cash-out the bonus from the bookmaker sites. We use Advantage Plays and Find Values, so Horse Betting 2nd Place Refund is No Longer Gambling for Us but Reliable Additional Income On The Side.
This document is a part of the series of Specific Instructions about Matched Betting, which is probably the most popular advantage play in the UK. Please also take a look at the list of our all 6 Advantage Play, which gives you an overall picture of our strategies. With that said, one of our policies is “Betting On Luck Is For Losers, Stop Gamble Betting But Bet on Only +EV To Win Reliably“, and it is effectively our way to promote Responsible Gambling, and we strongly support GamCare being explained in about us.
In line with the above policy, we are providing you with the step-by-step guide for How To Lock-In Profit from Horse Racing 2nd Place Refund Offer in this document.
What Is Horse Racing 2nd Place Refund Offer?
For those who ever do sports betting, “If your horse finishes 2nd we will refund you” is the campaign you often encounter. It’s pretty straight forward, your loss will be refunded if your horse finishes 2nd. It’s not only for horse racing but is used in many events such as Outright Markets of golf tournament, darts tournament, Football competition or Olympic. This 2nd Place Refund may give you constant profit with almost no risk.
For horse racing, you will find a lot of offers especially in big festival seasons such as the Cheltenham, Royal Ascot and Derby. Many bookmakers are trying to compete with attractive offer.
Recognize Which Offers Give You Value
One offer you should never overlook is the one including the 3rd place refund as seen from Paddy Power in Galaway Festival; Actually, such offer is extremely juicy compared with the usual only 2nd place Refund (see more in the EV – Expected Value evaluation later). BTW, you may also see similar offers but with another condition such as “Your horse finishes next to SP Favorite” or “Lose within Length / Head / Neck like below;
We have drawn the strategic paper related with the Horse Racing Refund. I strongly suggest you take a look at 10 Horse Racing Refund Offers – Value Based Best Selection & Tactics To Win; , where we show how to gauge the value, prioritize & select the popular offers together with the specific tactics summary to extract cash from them.
Standard Process Of Horse Betting 2nd Place Refund / How My Bet Went
As said at the beginning, we use matched betting to make bookmakers’ offer almost risk-free. We apply this method to horse betting 2nd place refund as well. Therefore, let me quickly show you how the matched betting works as follows (if you are a matched bettor, please just skip this section and directly go to Process 1);
How To Do Matched Betting On Horse Betting 2nd Place Refund
Just in case you’re not familiar with it, Matched Betting For Dummies – 9 Essential Things You Should Know Before Staking Any Real Money; will be of your help. But just briefly, matched betting for horse racing 2nd place refund works as;
- 2 transactions of Back (bet on win) the horse at Bookmaker that offers Horse Racing 2nd Place Refund such as Paddy Power & Lay (bet on NOT win) the same horse at Betting Exchange such as Betfair or Smarkets so that you cover all outcomes.
- No matter what the the final outcome of your horse will be, your losing & winning will cancel out each other. In the real practice, usually 2 bets are not perfectly offset due to the odds difference & exchange commission therefore you make a small loss called Qualifying Loss.
- However, if your horse doesn’t win but finishes 2nd, you will get a refund toward your losing bet.
- Then, you repeat the same betting practice in a different racing. But, this time, you will use the free bet in Paddy Power therefore it (free bet value – qualifying loss) will become your net profit.
- Success factor is how to minimize this qualifying loss.
As you see in the above process, betting exchange is essential for matched betting. Therefore, it’s critical to adopt the right approach toward the betting exchanges from the beginning, which will affect your long-term profit. Suggest you take a look at Bet Exchange – How To Sign-Up & Lock-In Profit Wisely With Best Offers, where you find the Smart Tactics on How To Use Which Bet Exchange in Which Occasion with spoon-fed like instructions.
We recommend SMarkets as a Core Betting Exchange for matched betting. Not Betfair, Why? Also show how important Matchbook is. Please go to the above document that explains the full rationale & comprehensive strategies to make the best use of all 4 key betting exchanges.
Anyhow, for those who have not opened SMarkets or not even a single bet exchange account, I prepared a step-by-step guide for your quick start. You can effortlessly extract cash from its sign-up bonus of £10 Risk-Free Bet. Actually, this is one of the easiest offers to lock-in profit in the industry. Please click “+” mark to open the instruction;
Process 1 – Keep Checking E-Mail
- Bookies often send the promotion announcement by e-mail on the day unless it is prepared long before as a big promotion. They may issue the offers based on their business needs like balancing the book, or need short-term sales boost etc. So, you have to keep watching your e-mail or sms text. The above Paddy’s offer was sent around 14:00 PM.
Process 2 – Seek Short & Narrow Odds
- Given the nature of the promotion (2nd & 3rd), you should select the horse with short odds though as below odds checker indicates Paddy’s top 2 – 4th horses don’t show attractive odds. Well it’s often the tactics that they attract you to the event by promotion but get you to buy not attractive odds or long odds horses. Anyhow, I selected one horse that is relatively good odds around 4 hours well before the race starts – this is Early Price
- We need to find a close match between the bookmaker back odds & the Betfair lay odds. Ideally, you want the Betfair lay odds to be slightly lower than the bookie back odds. You back / lay any horse for no loss and hope it finishes second so you get the free bet refund. Any of Betfair’s odds are not attractive (means close) enough to Paddy’s odds for matched betting at this stage. So I decided to wait until just before the race starts when usually the odds moves drastically thus we have good opportunity to grab preferable odds.
Process 3 – Combine With Other Offers
- At the same time, I received the similar offer from Boylesports, which has the additional condition of After SP (Starting Price) Favorite. It means my horse needs to finish 2nd or 3rd beaten by the Favorite Horse at starting time. As said before, usually, this 2nd to SP offer is very low chance means relatively low value. However it still has value (because it offers the 3rd as well) & it offers in the same race, so that I can save exchange commission & best utilize my fund:
, therefore if there are close odds between Boylesports & Betfair I would take up this offer;
Process 4 – Lay Off 10 Minutes Before The Race Starts
- The below shows the Betfair Lay Odds, just 5 minutes before the race starts. These are much better (means lower because this is Lay) than the previous one (the Favorite Horse increased the odds but we don’t buy Favorite otherwise we lose the Boylesports’ promotion benefit), so I completed the laying satisfactory;
- So, do you want to see the final results? Here you are;
- Do you want to know how I went? My bet at Paddy Power finished 14th while my bet in Boylesports finished 3rd. Wow, but unfortunately the SP Favorite finished at 10th, so I couldn’t receive the refund. Now you see how such a simple added restriction makes this lucrative 2nd & 3rd Place Refund so difficult. However, I could took great odds for both horses in the last 5 minutes in Betfair, in fact Paddy’s bet resulted in an arbitrage, thus overall ended up with slight profit.
Is It Really Worth? Let’s Evaluate The Value
As usual let me use EV (Expected Value) to gauge the value of Horse Betting 2nd Place Refund offer. EV calculation formula in this case can be:
- EV = (Outcome A x Probability %) – (Outcome B x Probability %)
Outcome A is Receiving Refund with the result that my horse finishes 2nd (or 3rd), while Outcome B is that my horse finishes other than 2nd (or 3rd).
So, I will set a hypothetical case which is quite common, means something you can construct such bet without any problem.
- You bet £25 on the Horse with Back Odds at 6.5 and lay odds at 6.7 under the offer of 2nd Place Refund.
- Refund is in the form of free bet, therefore its cash value is predicted to be around 80%, which is £20.
- Regarding the probability of 2nd or 3rd finish, we can calculate based on the bookie’s Each Way term such as 3 places with 1/4 or 1/5 payout. However it’s a bit complicated. More importantly, the implied probability based on the place terms tend to give too high odds to top runners to attract place bet. Means favorites’ probabilities tend to be lower, while underdog especially outsiders’ probabilities become too high, means payouts get worse. Therefore allow me to avoid unnecessary complication and make bold assumption that the probability of 2nd would be similar to the probability of winning (top), which I assume closer to true probability.
Then we can use the converting formula of;
- Implied Probability = (1 / Decimal Odds) x 100, namely 1/6.5 x 100 = 15.4% is the probability of 2nd Finish, and 100% – 15.4% = 84.6% is the probability of Not Finishing 2nd.
- 2nd Place Refund EV = (£20 x 15.4%) – (£1.18 x 84.6%) = £3.08 – £0.99 = £2.09
As seen, it is a Positive EV, means you will make average £2.09 profit in long-term from this offer, so the more you take this offer the more your profit will be. It’s NOT POSSIBLE FOR YOU TO PRODUCE LOSS in Long-Term. If the offer is not only the 2nd place but also 3rd place, the probability of refund will be double as 30.8% while no refund will be 69.2%, then;
- 2nd & 3rd Place Refund EV = (£20 x 30.8%) – (£1.18 x 69.2%) = £6.16 – £0.82 = £5.34
So, you see how much difference 1 more place will make.
If you can select & manage to bet on shorter & narrower (between back & lay) odds, your EV will be better means your average profitability will be improved.
Bottom-line, this offer is absolutely profitable. Needless to say, because of the Variance, you don’t always win. Say, you may not get refund from the 5 races in a row but the refund of the following 2 races will make the whole 7 bets profitable. So don’t be fooled by variance. As long as you keep taking the positive EV offers, you will make a lot of money in long-term. You don’t need to believe me but should believe the mathematics.
6 Essential Tactics To Make Real Profit From Horse Betting 2nd Place Refund
Having explained, the below shows the 6 best tactics to tackle
- Set your priority on BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) bookmakers (Ladbrokes / Betfred / Coral / Boylesports / SkyBet / Race Bets / Paddy Power / Bet365 / William Hill / Betfair Sports / Betway / Bet Bright / Stan James / Tote Sports / 10 Bet , I attach the link to each bookmaker’s BOG page or promotion page for your convenience, so just click the name to go that page). This is the insurance when your odds moves unfavorably so that you have to take higher lay odds later, since these bookies will give you whichever the higher (your original odds or final SP- Starting Price).
- The race with Small Runners which off course will give your horse better probability to have the 2nd place. But check Promotion T&C carefully, usually bookies set minimum runners like “Require 7 or more runners” etc.
- Select Low Odds Favorite that has the better chance to finish within the top 3. Bookies often tactically give much shorter odds to those promising horses. However, as I explained in the Secret Of Odds;, bookies have to balance the book. Therefore you will have large chance to find increasing odds at certain point. So, don’t give up and try to get better odds.
- Back – Check Early Price Given the bookmaker’s above tactics, you may not always find good odds for the promising horses in the early price. But definitely worth checking because this is when you can often find soft odds. Just be cautious, try to avoid taking only early price (not necessarily for this offer but in general). Because you will be labelled sharp (taking too much value) & could be gubbed quickly. Read 22 Smart Tactics To Avoid Bookmakers’ Restriction & Solutions After Being Gubbed;
- Lay – Around 10 Minutes Before the Race Starts. It is simply because this is the time when big money comes in and odds fluctuates largely. There are a lot of chances you will get much shorter odds that may give you arbitrage condition, means you get profit rather than qualifying loss. However, it could move unfavorably, means you may result in bigger qualifying loss. Especially during the last 5 minutes before starting the race, the odds move in flush. It’s difficult to lay off as you want, and you could even be left un-laid. So, this is risky approach thus not for the matched betting newbies. Although the odds movement is unpredictable, 1 way to have better insight is to keep checking Oddschecker colour. The blue shows shortening while the pink indicates drifting / increasing, just FYI;
- Combine Multiple Bookies’ Promotion in the same market to efficiently use your fund in Exchange as well as reducing your commission paying to the Exchange. For example, the recent Paddy Power “Refund 2nd, 3rd, & 4th to SP Favorite” offer. Since it attaches SP Favorite requirement, the probability is lower. However Paddy Power runs ongoing reward Club (Bet £10 x 5 Get £10 Freebet Every Week). Then betting on the refund race will also contribute to progress the reward Club requirement, means it gives you more value;
While writing this document, I just found the Unibet E-mail as below;
No footy in this off-season? Doesn’t matter, you have a full of Sports for Matched Betting.
OK, now let me introduce a hidden method to lock-in profit from Horse Betting 2nd Place Refund Offer.
2nd and 2nd & 3rd Place Profit Lock-in Method
Here is the way to rake the profit no matter what the race results will be under this promotion.
I placed the Unibet Offer at 15:10 Goodwood festival with Lock-In Profit Method. The key point is laying off Not Only Win part but also Place part.
Special 2nd Place Horse Betting Calculator To Produce Guaranteed Profit
What I used is a specifically designed software (spreadsheet) for Horse Betting 2nd Place Refund to simulate your required lay stakes both for Win & Place market and estimated guaranteed profit.
It looks like;
It takes less than 30 seconds to enter the necessary information and the spreadsheet will automatically calculate the required Lay Stakes under the 2 scenarios of;
- S: Same Profit Achievement No Matter The Final Outcome Will Be
- F: Focus Profit on Finishing 1st – 3rd with Risk Free (means when the horse finishes unplaced break-even)
This spreadsheet is extremely handy, and I explained how to make the best use of it in the form of calculator tutorial as follows;
2nd Place Refund Horse Betting Calculator
I have separately prepared the Calculator Tutorial where you can download the sheet for free!!
Therefore if you’re interested suggest you go 2nd Place Refund Horse Betting Calculator for a Guaranteed Profit; to start making Guaranteed Extra Money immediately!!
I used the Unibet Offer as the real example and showed exactly what I did with the spreadsheet and the final results, all are true story, therefore it’s a very practical & useful tutorial. This document is “Member Only” page, thus just fill-in your name & e-mail address to obtain Password. It tales only a few minutes to get the PW and access to the information. This PW can be used in any other Member Only documents.
Hope these information will help you expand sure bet options.
If you have any inquiry or need any help from us, please contact us anytime (don’t worry, we will not charge you any fee, everything is free here).